TFT Issue 292!
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Featured game
Fulham vs Newcastle United – home win at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the English Premier League game in London between Fulham and Newcastle United. Craven Cottage is not an easy place to play for any visiting side and I expect Newcastle to discover that today.
Fulham were defeated 3-1 at ten-man Blackburn in their last game. It was an embarrassing result for them although I’d hesitate to call it an embarrassing display. Indeed, I’d be more inclined to point the finger at young goalkeeper Stockdale, as he was at fault for at least two of the Blackburn goals, in my view. I don’t really believe that Fulham deserved to lose that game although at the same time I don’t believe that they did enough to win it either.
Fulham have been very solid at home lately with convincing displays and given that their only defeat in their past five games has been when their goalkeeper has been at fault, I think it’s fair to observe that Jol’s side are on the rise. For today’s game, they unfortunately miss Moussa Dembele, which is a blow, and bit-part Portuguese striker Orlando Sa. The latter doesn’t concern me with Zamora seemingly back on Jol’s radar but Dembele’s absence could be a problem as the powerhouse has been a tower of strength in Fulham’s attack. Bryan Ruiz will still be there to pull the strings, however, and with Damien Duff and Clint Dempsey alongside him, I rate Fulham’s chances of doing well rather highly here, as they often do at home.
The only side to stop Fulham scoring since 10/12 was Manchester United and in all honesty, Fulham wasted at least three glorious chances in the second-half to lessen the deficit, most of which Johnson wasted. Nobody else has managed it and I think that speaks volumes for Fulham’s ever-increasing attacking potency.
Newcastle have over-achieved this season and maybe they’ll continue to do so; who knows? None of us can see the future. However, I’d be surprised to see it last, to be honest. This side has no depth and I think that the cracks will appear after a few bad results as there are some big egos in this team that have not yet shown due to the rolling good times. Let’s see how hard Hatem Ben Arfa, Demba Ba, and Gabriel Obertan work when the chips are down!
For today’s game, Newcastle are not in a great position to do well, in my view. Is it any wonder? This side has a strong starting eleven but there are four/five players that this side cannot be without and three of them are absent today! First of all there is Taylor at the back. When he and Coloccini are in the middle of defence, they’re a rock and very hard to get past. Taylor is out for the rest of the season allegedly and for me, that does Newcastle’s defence a lot of damage. Then we have Demba Ba, the leading light of Newcastle’s attack and arguably the most in-form striker in the Premier League. He’s in Equatorial Guinea/Gabon for the African Nations with Senegal so he won’t be playing here. Without him, Newcastle do not have a replacement; just Championship quality players such as Best and Lovenkrands. Thirdly, midfield engine Tiote has joined Ba in the African Nations although he’ll be playing for Ivory Coast. Given that he’s the main reason that Newcastle win the ball back, you have to expect their possession to significantly drop in the coming games.
Add all of the above up and we have a weak Newcastle side here. There are still some top class players in there with Coloccini, Gutierrez, and emerging ‘keeper Krul but if we’re honest, there are too many average players in this team and the right game will expose that, which should realistically be Fulham if they show up. It’s also worth mentioning that playmaker Cabaye is a big doubt for this game, too! I actually think that Pardew was very clever by signing Cisse from SC Freiburg; he was absolutely unplayable last season and both he and Ba will be a mighty threat for Newcastle. However, there was one pretty big flaw with this signing and that’s the news that Cisse cannot replace Ba for now as he’s also at the African Nations. D’oh!
At full-strength, I’d give Newcastle a chance of getting a draw here. With over half of their integral players absent, I think they’ll have to play very, very well to get a result here, especially based on what I’ve seen from them since Ba and Tiote departed. For me, Fulham have much more attacking impetus, more experience, and a strong home advantage so I can’t overlook the price of 11/10 on the home win here.
Verdict: Fulham to win at 11/10.
Additional games
Equatorial Guinea vs Libya – home win with draw no bet at 5/6.
This is the first game of the African Nations tournament that is being held in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon respectively.
You’ve got to laugh at Equatorial Guinea’s squad selection, though – either that or you’ll cry. Suddenly, since being named a host of this tournament, a whole host of players have switched from being Spanish to being from Equatorial Guinea. A good number of Equatorial Guinea’s squad actually play in the Segunda Liga or the Segunda B in Spain, which helps them become at least a semi-decent side. They’ve not got much experience in their team but there’s flair and with old hand Bodipo up front and giant strike partner Fabiani, you have to expect the underdog hosts to be a handful if nothing else. They’ll play with heart and tenacity and let’s not forget the most dangerous weapon when betting in Africa – home advantage. Few sides lose at home anywhere on the continent and Equatorial Guinea are no exception having already held Cameroon and South Africa to draws here, 1-1 and 0-0 respectively. Although this side may lack in the cohesion department, I doubt they will be in most other places and I think that they’ll do well here, especially with a lot of support from their fans.
Libya are a pain in the arse to beat but I don’t rate them as a particularly good side. They’re the kind of side that will really irritate the bigger sides but should look fairly average in games like these. Only Niger have scored as few goals as Libya have in terms of the sides that have qualified the groups, bagging six goals in six games, which is just horrendous. Defensively, the only side to have conceded just one goal in six group games beside themselves was Ghana so that’s a mighty feather in their cap, although it is worth pointing out that they had an atrocious Comoros side, a poor Mozambique side, and a pretty good Zambia side in their group – not exactly heavyweights really! Equatorial Guinea have to keep an eye on experienced striker Sa’ad of Club Africain (very experienced!) and will need to find a way past old hand Al Shibani at the back. Mahamat of Sporting Braga is expected to have a good tournament and Jagodina youngster Mohammed Monir could spring a surprise but ultimately, this side is not particularly good and I will be very surprised if they win here.
For me, there’s value on the home win with draw no bet. I don’t see the hosts losing unless they completely bottle it but Libya shouldn’t have the firepower to punish them anyway. Therefore, my call is the home win with draw no bet.
Verdict: Equatorial Guinea to win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Senegal vs Zambia – over 2 goals at 4/5.
Senegal have been tipped as the dark horses for this tournament and you can see why. They’ve got so many good strikers that it’s hard to ignore how good this side could be. I mean, most are raving about Ba prior to this tournament and rightfully so as he’s been superb in the Premier League this season. His new strike partner Cisse is a real threat and we can’t overlook consistent FC Copenhagen hitman N’Doye, experienced Camara, and in-form LOSC Lille striker Sow. For me, their best striker is still Niang, though. Why he left Europe I will never understand as this guy was pure dynamite during his time with Marseille and Fenerbahce, boasting terrific strength, pace, and finesse. I fully expect him to dominate this Senegal attack rather than the others. Additionally, we’ve got some experience in midfield with Dia from Fenerbahce, N’Daw from Birmingham City, and Diame from Wigan Athletic. Full-back Daf from Stade Brestois is very experienced, as are fellow defenders Sall and especially Diawara, who forms a rock-solid defensive partnership with ex-Dynamo Kiev powerhouse Diakhate. Their defence is strong, which is unusual for an African side, in all honesty. Their big weakness is in goal, where they basically have a bunch of nobodies so expect some crazy lunges from corners.
However, I’m really not going to rule out Zambia doing well in this tournament. Everything that I’ve seen of this Zambia team in the qualifiers tells me that they’re a capable side that plays good football. There’s masses of experience in their squad with Henan Construction striker Katongo boasting sixty-five caps for his country. Emerging Young Boys Bern hitman Mayuka is a real threat and we’ve all seen how quick Collins Mbesuma is. There are threats in this Zambia attack, more than you may think, and it’ll be interesting to see how “secret weapon” Kangwa does here too. Importantly, Zambia have experience where it counts – Kalaba in midfield, Katongo up front, Mweene in goal, and Musonda at the back. A good number of this side play for TP Mazembe, one of the best (if not the best) club sides in Africa. Zambia are quick, strong, and good on the ball. This side are no mugs and I think that they’ll give Senegal a good game here.
Although not notorious for producing a lot of goals, I think this particular African Nations game will produce goals. Senegal have way too much firepower to be overlooked and Zambia are no stranger to firepower themselves. Therefore, over 2 goals appeals to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2 goals at 4/5.
Omonia Nicosia vs Anorthosis Famagusta – home win at evens.
Omonia might not be playing the most flashy of football right now but what they are is ruthlessly efficient and that’s what makes them the second-best side in Cyprus – well, that and a bunch of corrupt APOEL Nicosia fans as officials. Omonia have a very strong squad and tend to demonstrate that best at hom. Six wins from eight home games whilst averaging scoring over two goals per home game is enough to convince me, not to mention their strong displays. They tend to monopolise possession well and given that only defender Leandro is absent today, you have to fancy them to get a favourable result today. They enter this game on the back of two consecutive wins since returning from the winter break, beating Aris Limassol 3-0 and AEL Limassol 0-3. Neither game was worthy of a 3-0, in my view – Aris were so bad that a half-hearted Omonia display was enough to punish them and Omonia were simply clinical against ineffectual AEL. Again, that’s Omonia’s strength, though – they’re clinical and tenacious and with momentum behind them, it’d take a braver man than me to oppose them here.
The more I see Anorthosis Famagusta, the more I am reminded of Apollon Limassol. Anorthosis are rapidly deteriorating into a side that never convinces anyone, ships goals too easily, and doesn’t score enough goals given the firepower that they have. They are completely unconvincing with very little cohesion and despite being one of the giants of Cypriot football they almost never show it nowadays. They were crap against Nea Salamis and even worse against Enosis Neon Paralimni. Credit to them for doing the business but this side has very little of my respect in games like this. Additionally, they have to cope without attacking midfielder Laban and are most likely without top goalscorer Rezek. I rate Okkas and Konstantinou as they’re experienced and able forwards but they don’t bring the mobility that Rezek does and Anorthosis will miss that.
In all seriousness, I cannot fathom why Omonia are at evens here. They’re a good deal better than Anorthosis nowadays and although there is still a bit of rivalry here, the hosts have more than enough to do the business today. Omonia have a strong record in this fixture having not even conceded in their last six meetings with Anorthosis and given that they’ve won their last two home games against Anorthosis and that they won in Famagusta earlier this season, the home win at evens really appeals to me here.
Verdict: Omonia Nicosia to win at evens.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners – No absentees.
Adelaide United – Cassio, McKain, Susak, and Levchenko are absent. Dilevski is a doubt.
Melbourne Heart – Zahra, Ibrahim, Colosimo, Fred, Kalmar, and Taseski are absent.
Brisbane Roar – No absentees.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Kortrijk – Mulemo, Veselinovic are absent. Pavlovic is a doubt. N’For returns.
Anderlecht – Vargas and Molins are absent.
Club Brugge – Dhoest, Vydra, Van Gijseghem, Blondel, and Odidja are absent. Bacca may debutise.
Mechelen – Biebauw, Geudens, Vidarsson, Van Loo, and Alibec are absent. Destorme returns.
Cypriot Division 1:
Omonia Nicosia – Leandro is absent.
Anorthosis Famagusta – Rezek is a doubt. Lamban is absent.
Aris Limassol – Louzeiro may debutise.
APOEL Nicosia – Lombe and Grujic return.
Enosis Neon Paralimni – Imsiot and Faria are absent. Moukouri and Semedo return. Sante may debutise.
Ermis – No news.
German Bundesliga:
Nurnberg – Rakovsky, Nilsson, Pinola, Klement, Chandler, Judt, Gonzales, Klose, Balitsch, and Feulner are absent.
Hertha HSC Berlin – Franz, Mijatovic, Rafael, and Rukavitsa are absent.
SC Freiburg – Mujdza, Schuster, and Dembele are absent.
Augsburg – Bah, Bellinghausen, Amsif, Moravek, and Rafael are absent.
VfL Wolfsburg – Helmes, Lakic, and Mandzukic are absent.
Koln – Chihi, Jemal, Sereno, and Buchtmann are absent.
Schalke 04 – Fahramnn, Kenia, Kluge, Farfan, Holtby, and Jones are absent.
VfB Stuttgart – Boka, Audel, Bah, Gentner, and Traore are absent.
Hoffenheim – Compper, Jaissel, and Vorsah are absent.
Hannover 96 – Haggui, Schulz, Andreasen, Carlitos, Hauger, Pinto, and Ya Konan are absent.
Greek Super League:
Asteras Tripolis – Breska and Tsabouris are absent. Usero returns.
PAS Giannina – Fegrous, Andralas, Kotsios, De Vicenti, and Tzimopoulos are absent.
Ergotelis – Silva, Junior, Romano, Dermitzakis, and Bouxalakis are absent.
AEK Athens – Burns and Gentsoglou have left. Karabelas will leave after this game. Leonardo is also rumoured to be leaving.
PAOK Salonika – Papazoglou and Georgiadis are absent.
Panionios – Tsosalits has left the club.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Fransman, Badir, Gordana, Oremus, and Pecalka are absent. Tamuz supposedly is leaving at the end of the month. Suler may debutise.
Maccabi Netanya – No absentees.
Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Gazal, Njobvu, Badash, Gerzicich are absent.
Hapoel Ironi Nir Ramat Hasharon – Damianovich may debutise. Guerrero has left.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Kiso and Seba may debutise. Yehiel, Gabai, Malka, and Vaknin are absent.
Hapoel Haifa – Azzam, Roash, and Gluscevic are absent.
Maccabi Petah Tikva – Elbaz is absent.
Bnei Sakhnin – Ghanayim is absent.
Beitar Jerusalem – Ikande may debutise. Rikan is absent. Moyal and Cohen are doubts. Bruchian has left.
MS Ashdod – Cahlon may debutise. Biton returns.
Italian Serie A:
AS Roma – De Rossi, Osvaldo, Cassetti, and Burdisso are absent. Lamela and Pizarro are doubts.
Cesena – Malonga is absent. Djokovic, Martinho, and Ghezzal are doubts.
Atalanta Bergamo – Bellini, Capelli, Lucchini, Carmona, and Brighi are absent. Manfredini is a doubt.
Juventus – Elia and Quagliarella are absent.
Dutch Eredivisie:
De Graafschap – Kujala, Meijer, and Rose are absent.
Heerenveen – Sibon and Assaidi are absent.
Excelsior Rotterdam – de Vries, Kalisse, Scheimann, and Eekman are absent.
NAC Breda – van Fessem, Zonneveld, and Gudelj are absent.
Twente Enschede – Rendla, Landzaat, Kuiper, and Boschker are absent.
RKC Waalwijk – Martina, Ramos, and Bridji are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
St.Mirren – Goodwin is absent.
Celtic – No absentees.
Dundee United – Severin and Mentel are absent.
Motherwell – Saunders is absent.
Hibernian – Murray and Galbraith are absent. Sodje is expected to be absent ahead of a proposed moved to Westerlo.
St.Johnstone – No absentees.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Golobart, Shinnie, Cox, and Tudur-Jones are absent.
Hearts – Driver, Grainger, Kyle, Zaliukas, and Stevenson are absent.
Kilmarnock – Jaakkola, Pursehouse, and O’Leary are absent.
Dunfermline Athletic – Burns, Easton, McCann, Phinn, Bell, and Gallacher are absent.
Rangers – Lafferty, Ness, Naismith, and Whittaker are absent.
Aberdeen – Osbourne, Pawlett, and Milsom are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Espanyol – Vazquez, Pandiani, Garcia, Alvarez, Marquez, and Mattioni are absent.
Granada – Juan, Lopez, Roberto, Yebda, and Diakhate are absent.
Racing Santander – Munitis and Francis are absent.
Getafe – Ustari is absent.
Real Socieadad – Illaramendi is absent.
Atletico Madrid – Tiago is absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Mario, Amaya, Pozuelo, and Vadillo are absent.
Sevilla CF – Moral, Kanoute, Perotti, Caceres, and Armenteros are absent.