TFT Issue 295!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
I still feel pretty galled with Morocco’s result against Tunisia yesterday with Morocco dominating play and still losing the game but onward and upward, eh?
Anyway, this issue sees us take a slightly more in-depth look at the African Nations. I should really have posted it prior to the tournament but there we go! Anyone that doesn’t give a shit can feel free to scroll to the bottom of the page where today’s tips are.
African Nations
Potential winners
For me, there are two sides that have a very good chance of winning this tournament and that’s the Ivory Coast and Ghana and respectively. If they meet then I’m all over the Ivorians!
Alright, so let’s start with the Ivory Coast. Where’s it gone wrong for them in recent African Nations tournaments? Simple – north African sides. Ivory Coast hate breaking sides down because contrary to popular belief, they’re not especially good at it unless they’re at home. African sides play against them with strength, determination, and belief and boy do the Ivorians hate that! Attacking the Ivory Coast – now that’s what they enjoy! They can counter-attack better than most (if not all) sides in this tournament and they’ve got the best players in this tournament to punish sides. Don’t expect the Ivorians to blow anyone away unless they strike lucky or if they’re attacked because they rarely will. However, they do have the best players and the most match-winners and that should lead them to being the champions this year, especially with Egypt and Algeria not in the tournament this time around to burst their bubble. Be very wary if the Ivorians play Tunisia or Morocco, though – those sides are better tactically than the Ivorians and those games will be especially hard for The White Elephants.
Ghana – well, there are plenty of good players in their squad this time around. They’ve got arguably the best defence in the tournament with Paintsil, Inkoom, Mensah etc. They’ve got a lot of spirit and an awful lot of strength. However, I see this side as having one big problem and another slight problem. Their big problem is scoring goals. You all saw Gyan tear up the Premier League for Sunderland last season and he did it very well. He did very well at the World Cup too, to be fair. However, he plays well when it suits him and although he’s got the pace and skill to cause problems, I’d argue that his finishing is somewhat questionable for a forward that is in this Ghana squad to be the out-and-out striker. Gyan does well with a forward three to link up and swap places with and I’ve no doubt that Stevanovic will try to flank him with Marseille’s Ayew brothers but there’s only Gyan that does the business and he’s a bit of a loose cannon. Subsequently, I don’t think we’ll see Ghana score as many goals as they could. Their other problem is in midfield because they will undoubtedly miss the leadership of Essien. There are other good midfielders in this squad but Essien is the heartbeat of the team and his absence will hurt Ghana ultimately. So, yeah – they could win it if the Ivorians are out, if they avoid injuries to their attackers, and if they take their chances. Second favourites for me though.
Surprise Packages
Zambia – God I like this side! They’ve got a lot of everything that they need to piss all the other sides off! This side can score goals more easily than most sides in the tournament because there’s a lot of experience in their squad and there’s a lot of options up front. Unlike Ivory Coast, Ghana etc. Zambia arrive at this tournament with no pressure and it showed with them defeating Senegal in their opening game without any great problem. There are a lot of players in this Zambia squad that I fancy a lot of sides to struggle with and thus I think they’ll cause plenty of upsets in this tournament. Who knows – with some luck they may just win it!
Burkina Faso – I’ve listed Burkina Faso here not because I expect them to necessarily do well but because I know that they can. They can score goals, unlike most sides in the tournament, and they’re not afraid to attack either. Good midfield and good attack with Dagano, Pitroipa, Kabore, Bance, Alain Traore, and especially Abdou Traore from Lechia Gdansk – he could be in for a good tournament here. Defensively, they’re not sound at all. Their best defender is Kone from Lyon, which speaks volumes, really. I expect this side to be one of the few sides that are regularly involved in over 2.5 goals as long as they’re not playing one of the shitty defensive sides.
Angola – I can never really make up my mind with Angola. This side can attack as well as Burkina Faso but without having the bigger names. Flavio and Manucho are a real handful up front with plenty of experience but Angola’s relatively unknown midfield tends to do a good job in supporting them. I find Angola to be more temperamental than Burkina Faso, though. With the Burkinabe, you know what you’re getting in each game. With Angola, they can lose 3-0 against Niger or win 2-1 against Ghana. A very unpredictable side that I find it hard to bet for or against – be very wary of these guys.
Guinea – I like this Guinea side quite a lot. They’ve got bags of experience at the back and boast one of the stronger defences in the tournament as a result. I don’t expect these guys to concede many goals if their midfield gives them the appropriate protection. Bangoura up front is a real handful and he can score goals for fun as Dynamo Kiev fans will tell you. They’ll struggle if he misses any games, though – they don’t have the quality nor the experience to replace him. Yattara is irreplacable in midfield, as is old hand Feindouno. Those three are integral to Guinea’s game at all times and any of them being absent will harm Guinea. With them all playing, however, Guinea can upset a few sides here and perhaps progress further than most think. Without them, Guinea will not score goals and will go under 2.5 goals most of the time.
Overrated Sides
Senegal – Can Senegal win the tournament? Yes. Will they? I highly doubt it. They’ve brought six strikers to this tournament that almost any other side would kill to have. With that in mind, I can see why people think they’ll do well here. That said, a lot of people think they’ll do well because they’ve seen Demba Ba playing well. Yawn! This is a team game! I like their defence with Diawara and Diakhate back there – two reliable (by African standards) defenders. However, the huge, almighty, soul-crushing problem that they have is that they don’t create enough chances. There is nobody in midfield to seize the game, nobody to make things happen, no proper playmaker. If Dia is the best that they can do then they’re going to really struggle here because they look nervous and the only way to quell those nerves is to score goals. Senegal could flop out of this tournament a lot earlier than expected if they’re not smart.
Morocco & Tunisia – I’ve put these two together because they are very similar sides. Morocco are marginally better than Tunisia but there’s not much in it. Neither side can put the ball in the net on a regular basis but their respective midfields can keep the ball well, particularly Morocco’s. Morocco’s defence is marginally better than Tunisia’s, as Tunisia lack a leader. I expect the vast majority of games involving these two sides to easily go under 2.5 goals, though. Watch out for Tunisia if Jemaa isn’t playing, incidentally – they rarely score without him. The only time these two may not go under 2.5 goals is if they play each other – strange games tend to ensue when they meet. Both are overrated sides, though – neither has the firepower to do well here, although I can’t deny that they’re tactically better than most sides in this tournament so they’re sides to be wary of but not sides to back to win at stupidly short odds.
Mali – This side has no more than three experienced players – that’s a huge problem in this tournament. Effectively, every side barring the hosts are playing away from home. To do well away from home in Africa you must have experience and Mali just don’t have any this time around. Their attack looks uninspired with big Dembele having failed to settle in the Bundesliga since his move from Levski Sofia and Maiga wanting to leave Sochaux and crying about it frequently in the press. These guys are easily demoralised and I have no faith in their consistency whatsoever. There’s no Sissoko in midfield and only Keita in there with any real ability. There are some grafters and some nearly men but not enough with quality to interest me. Defensively, this side do not convince me at all. Take Tamboura and Kante out of this squad and it’d be mayhem. I expect Mali to struggle and go out early with plenty of over 2.5 goals games.
Sides That Are Harder To Beat Than Everyone Thinks
Botswana – I was really, really impressed with these guys in the qualifiers. Nobody had an easy game against them at any time, whether it be in a friendly or a qualifier. Botswana are one of the most well-organised, physical, and defensively sound sides in the tournament. They have no stars and no players that ply their trade outside of Africa. However, that doesn’t stop them from being a nightmare to face. This side will take some beating although they’re horribly short of firepower. I expect lots of under 2.5 goals games with these guys.
Niger – Very similar to Botswana although they do have a couple of stars, the most notable of which is big striker Maazou, who gives them the option to score goals which Botswana rarely have. Botswana are better organised than Niger for my money, though, so it balances well. However, we have another under 2.5 goals side here that is very hard to break through. That said, they buckle a little too easy under pressure and it was very visible in their opening game against Gabon how nervous they were as it took them at least forty minutes to settle down and get into the game. They could be ripped apart by the right side with the proper application.
Sudan – All their players ply their trade in Sudan so that makes them shit, right? Wrong! It means they have a terrific understanding of one another and boy did it show against the Ivory Coast in their opening game. Sudan could have gotten something out of that game had they not struck the woodwork. This side is very well-organised, very hard to break down, and may score more than you’d think. They’re a bit of a dark horse, Sudan, but I don’t have enough faith in them just yet to rate them as potential winners of this tournament.
Libya – Libya are the weakest of these four sides but are still very hard to play against. They don’t really have any stars although a few of their players do play ove rin Europe. They’re hard to break through and will rarely leave their own half. A classic under 2.5 goals side that could do well simply by stopping other sides scoring although I think they’ve had the nail in their coffin lid with an opening day loss against hosts Equatorial Guinea.
Hosts
Equatorial Guinea & Gabon – these two sides could do well for varying reasons. They’re both hosts, for starters – that gives a bigger advantage on this continent than it does anywhere else on the planet for my money. It even rivals altitude advantage because the support from their fans is tremendous and the pitch quality isn’t great for opposing sides to play on. Equatorial Guinea have nationalised a load of Spanish players to help them play in this tournament and who knows – they may just get to an advanced stage of the tournament because there aren’t many sides capable of blowing them away. Gabon are in a similar position although they have more experience than their neighbours. Neither side are particularly good but they’re both really well-supported and can spring surprises here as a result. Never, ever write off the hosts in this tournament, even against the favourites. I don’t rate either side highly, particularly in front of goal, but they can both upset opponents so be wary! Both will concede goals relatively easily and won’t find it easy to score them but again, home advantage is a big factor in this tournament. Be aware that Gabon are only able to attack properly down their right-hand side. Stop them there and they’re almost guaranteed to draw a blank.
Tips
Featured game
Ghana vs Botswana – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
I always find it hard to write previews for games after ante-post discussions so I’ll be brief to avoid repeating myself.
Ghana are a top class side but don’t look to have enough creativity in midfield nor enough striking options to destroy sides. I think that they’ll win the game but I think it’ll be a tough game for them if Botswana play today like they did in the qualifiers. Botswana are tough to break down and score against and with the proviso that they don’t bottle it ala Niger yesterday then they should be a bit of a tough cookie here. I like Ghana to win to nil but under 2.5 goals looks better value to me at 6/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Additional game
Mali vs Guinea – Guinea to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Although they’re only marginal favourites, it still surprises me that Mali are favourites here. I guess their name counts for a lot in this tournament because their players are nothing special, in my view. Guinea have less options in their squad in the sense that they have less depth but I like their unity and organisation much more than I do for Mali this year. Guinea have a better defence and they have enough experienced and attacking power to surprise Mali in this game. With the above in mind, I’d be surprised to see Guinea lose this one unless they just don’t show up. Therefore, Guinea look good value to win this one with draw no bet cover at 11/10.
Verdict: Guinea to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht – Vargas and Molins are absent.
AA Gent – Conte, Msila, Lepoint, N’Diaye, Ljubljankic, Ba, and Smolders are absent. Thijs is a doubt.
Scottish Premier League:
Motherwell – Saunders and Hollis are absent.
Dunfermline Athletic – Gallacher, McCann, Phinn, and Bell are absent. Burns is a doubt.