TFT Issue 299!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Feirense vs SL Benfica – away win with -1.5 handicap at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the Liga Sagres game between newly-promoted Feirense and giants SL Benfica.
Feirense are a feisty bunch so don’t be surprised if they have a man sent off here. Indeed, they’ve received more red cards this season than any other side in this division and given their close ties with Porto and the magnitude of the task ahead of them, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose a man or two here.
This game won’t be easy for Benfica, though. This pitch is tiny and Feirense’s supporters are loonies. Benfica look amazing though – so much confidence and ability on the ball! If they want to make it count then they will, in my view. They’ve got so many different options to try up front that it’s no surprise that they’re winning games easily both at home and away. For me, they’re the strongest side in Portugal this season and thus they stand a good chance of winning this one comfortably today.
Again, Feirense are not an easy side to play against – you can be sure that they’ll battle throughout the whole game and will play a physical game against Benfica. I just can’t look past Benfica scoring two or three goals against a side that they’re frankly a good deal better than on paper. The pitch etc. may slightly favour the hosts but that’s all that they have in their favour which is why I think Benfica have more than enough to do the job today.
For me, taking Benfica to beat the -1.5 handicap is well worth a punt at 10/11.
Verdict: SL Benfica to beat the -1.5 handicap at 10/11.
Additional games
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – away win at 7/5.
Come on, seriously? Rayo Vallecano have demonstrated absolutely nothing other than fortune in their recent games and I think Athletic are more than good enough to take advantage of that today. Yeah, they lost at Madrid, as they’d have expected to do. They fought well but too well, really, hence de Marcos getting himself sent off. It’s the same kind of game that Athletic always play against Madrid, though – respectable, impressive, but ultimately suicidal. Athletic are a good passing side nowadays though and I don’t see them giving the ball up often. With Llorente easing back into his best form, it’s very, very hard for me to overlook the distinctly generous odds on Bilbao winning against a second-rate side that simply doesn’t have much in the way of a good team, irrespective of whether it comes in or not! Loyal followers know that I am generally dubious about backing Bilbao on the road but the fact that I am doing so today indicates how lowly I rate Rayo this season!
Verdict: Athletic Club de Bilbao to win at 7/5.
Botswana vs Guinea – lay Guinea at 9/10.
I’ve genuinely not been as impressed with any side in this tournament as I have been with Botswana. I half-expected it but when you see them stop Ghana from playing for the whole game, even deserving to get something from the game, you have to respect them. They were superb in the qualifiers and I expect another superb display from them today. They’re packed full of pace, energy, and strength. They’re one of the best-organised sides in the tournament and if they could only put the ball in the net then I’d give them a chance as dark horses here. However, I do expect them to be a nightmare to break through today, as ever, and given that Ghana couldn’t do it without sloppy Botswana defending from a set piece (the only chance Ghana had in the game!), why should Guinea be able to? I like Guinea and I think they can do well if their main three aren’t absent but they struggle to convert their many chances against Mali and I don’t see how it’ll be any easier today. For me, there’s plenty of value in laying Guinea today.
Verdict: Lay Guinea at 9/10.
Ghana vs Mali – Ghana to win at 9/10.
I wasn’t impressed with Ghana when they play Botswana but we expected that type of game, really. Botswana are not easy to play against. However, Ghana have a different type of opponent here. Mali aren’t as good defensively as Botswana are but they’re better going forward. Like I said in my preview of the tournament, though, I just don’t rate Mali this year. They really rode their luck against Guinea, relying on their opponents missing chances and only scoring against the run of play themsevles with a scrappy goal. Mali look a shadow of the side they once were and with few experienced heads and few talented players in their ranks, it’s no surprise that that’s how things are right now. Mensah is suspended for Ghana but they should have more than enough for an unconvincing Mali side to deal with and odds of 9/10 appeal to me massively for a good Ghana side to almost guarantee progression by winning this game.
Verdict: Ghana to win at 9/10.
Jaro Pietarsaari vs VPS Vaasa – home win at 6/5.
Both sides have changed a lot pre-season but as impressed as I am with VPS’ signings, I am not impressed with the squad that they have today. The full list of their absentees is at the bottom of this page but given that they have a thin squad at best, it’s hard to see them doing anything against rivals Jaro Pietarsaari today. Jaro lost Siribadze pre-season but still have good players and especially good strikers so should be able to do the business here. Derby or not, Jaro winning this one appeals to me at 6/5 – they’ve looked better in their friendlies, they’ve had better preparation, and they can actually name a full squad for this game!
Verdict: Jaro Pietarsaari to win at 6/5.
Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Haifa – under 2 goals at 7/5.
With an embarassing 7-3 battering leading Maccabi Netanya into this game, confidence isn’t high and they’ve also got to contend with three key players being suspended; Ligat Ha’al leading goalscorer Saba’a, goalkeeper Edri, and defender Reuven. Netanya are a decent outfit but I can’t see them playing particularly well without them, especially given that they’re not a prolific side as it is. Hapoel Haifa aren’t really good enough to get a result here, in my view, but I do anticipate a low-scoring game here as Hapoel Haifa seek to stifle sides when playing away from home. Loose cannon Levi has been relased from the club and giant Dragan Ceran has been brought in to replace him but he can’t play in this game. Subsequently, goalscoring duty is all on returning hitman Gluscevic, who is capable but not match fit. Whatever the outcome, I think we’re in for a low-scoring game here and odds of 7/5 on under 2 goals really appeals to me here as a good value bet.
Verdict: Under 2 goals at 7/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar – Berisha is absent.
Newcastle Jets – Culina is absent. Gallaway is a doubt.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Germinal Beerschot – Angeli and Sidibe are absent. Kagelmacher has left.
Anderlecht – Vargas and Molins are absent.
Racing Genk – Joneleit, Limbombe, Sarr, Sandomierski, Vanden Borre, Koteles are absent. Hyland returns.
OH Leuven – Vastmans, Hayen, van Goethem, and Dehond are absent.
AA Gent – Conte, M’Sila, Lepoint, N’Diaye, Ba, Ljubljankic, and Smolders are absent. Thijs is a doubt.
Sint-Truiden – Andrade, Reza, Volders, van Crombrugge, Taelemans, Ngawa are absent. Delorge is a doubt. Daerden returns.
Lokeren – Deekman and Barry are absent.
Mechelen – Biebauw, Geudens, Vidarsson, van Loo are absent. Ghomsi returns.
Kortrijk – Mulemo and Capon are absent. Pavlovic is a doubt.
Zulte-Waregem – Matton and Skulason are absent. Maazou is on international duty and has been sold. Colpaert returns.
Cypriot Division 1:
Anagennisi Deryneia – Tofas is absent. Gonzalez, Alviz, and Jolic have left.
Enosis Neon Paralimni – No absentees. Very dubious odds movements – do not bet on this game.
Olympiakos Nicosia – Mousa is absent, as is Mersio.
Ethnikos Achnas – Kissi, Simov, and Milountinovic are absent. Supposed fixed away win – no bet!
Ermis – No absentees although most good players have left the club.
Omonia Nicosia – Leandro and Karipides are absent.
AEL Limassol – Bebe and Airosa are absent.
Aris Limassol – No absentees.
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Jaro Pietarsaari – No absentees.
VPS Vaasa – Henriksson, Bjork, Koskimaa, Uimaniemi, Luokkala, and Strandvall are absent. Thompson may debutise – he’s on trial.
German Bundesliga:
Werder Bremen – Naldo, Borowski, Militz, Prodl, Schmitz, and Hunt are absent.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Adler, Augusto, Barnetta, and Sam are absent.
Hertha HSC Berlin – Franz and Rafael are absent.
Hamburger SV – Tore, Ilisevic, and Castelen are absent.
Augsburg – Amsif, Bellinghause, Bah, Rafael, and Kaplani are absent.
Kaiserslautern – Schechter, Kouemaha, and de Wit are absent.
Koln – Jemal, Chihi, Uth, and Buchtmann are absent.
Schalke 04 – Fahrmann, Jones, Kenia, Kluge, Holtby, Howedes, and Baumjohann are absent.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Gotze and Koch are absent.
Hoffenheim – Comper, Jaissle, Vorsah, and Ibertsberger are absent.
Bayern Munich – Contento and van Buyten are absent.
VfL Wolfsburg – Helmes, Lakic, and Pollack are absent.
Greek Super League:
OFI Crete – Moniakis and Charitonidis are absent.
Xanthi – Mandalos and Vasilakakis are absent.
Panionios – Pier may debutise.
Kerkyra – No absentees. New manager.
Ergotelis – Junior, Dermitzakis, Kandilakis, Romano, Euagelou, Athanasiou, Beto, Fragoulakis, and Koutsianikoulis are absent.
Olympiakos Piraeus – Djebbour, Fejsa, Torosidis, Fuster, and Xolebas are absent.
Italian Serie A:
Catania – Legrottaglie, Almiron, and Capuano are absent. Maxi Lopez has left.
Parma – Zaccardo is absent. Mirante and Pelle are doubts.
Juventus – Vucinic is absent. Pepe, Elia, and Marchisio are doubts.
Udinese – Barreto, Pinzi, Benatia, Asamoah, and Badu are absent. Coda, Isla, and Fabbrini are doubts.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Netanya – Edri, Reuven, and Saba’a are absent.
Hapoel Haifa – Levi has left. Ceran replaces him but won’t play in this game. Hermon and Abukarat are doubts. Gluscevic and Roash return.
Ashdod – No absentees.
Hapoel Acre – Capiloto, Mishaelof, and Levi are absent. Trujic may debutise.
Bnei Sakhnin – Mbemba is absent.
Bnei Yehuda – No absentees.
Ironi Ramat Hasharon – Nissim has left. Ophir is a doubt.
Maccabi Petah Tikva – First game under new boss Sinai. Elbaz and Prada are absent. Strauber returns.
Maccabi Haifa – Amasha, Osman, and Cohen are absent. Azriel is a doubt.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Suleiman has left. Illuz and Nassar are absent. Quinn may debutise.
Hapoel Rishon Lezion – Lokman may debutise. Halevi is absent. Zulu has left.
Beitar Jerusalem – Ikande may debutise. No absentees.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heerenveen – Sibon, Assaidi, Zomer, and Janmaat are absent.
FC Utrecht – Nilsson, van Dijk, Martensson, Mulenga, and Bovenberg are absent.
NAC Breda – van Fessem, Zonneveld, Luijcks, Botteghin, Gudelj, and Bonevacia are absent.
De Graafschap – Kujala is absent.
Heracles Almelo – No absentees.
Excelsior Rotterdam – de Vries, Kalisse, and Eekman are absent.
Roda JC Kerkrade – Biemans is absent.
AZ Alkmaar – Elm is absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Feirense – Stenio is absent. Paulo Lopes and William return.
SL Benfica – Jardel is absent. Miguel Vitor returns.
Rio Ave – Jefferson, Tarantini, and Saulo are absent.
Academica de Coimbra – Papae Sow, Real, Orlando, and Diogo Gomes are absent. Eder returns. Simao debutises.
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen – Milsom, Osbourne, and Pawlett are absent.
Dunfermline Athletic – Barrowman, Burns, Gallacher, Phinn, Bell, and McDougall are absent.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Golobart and Shinnie are absent.
St.Mirren – McLean and Goodwin are absent.
Motherwell – Saunders, Higdon, and Craigan are absent.
St.Johnstone – Millar is absent.
Rangers – Jelavic, Naismith, Lafferty, Ness, Whittaker, and Broadfoot are absent.
Hibernian – Murray, Griffiths, and O’Connor are absent.