TFT Issue 307!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Alki Larnaca vs Ermis – away win with +1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Cypriot match between Alki Larnaca and rock-bottom Ermis.
Ok – the first question to ask yourself here is whether Alki are worth 1/5 against any side in the Cypriot Division 1 and the answer is a resounding “no”. They’ve done well in their “home” games this season, winning five times out of nine – not bad for an average side. They’ve scored lots of goals, too, which is impressive. However, they’ve paving over the cracks and I think it’s time to examine that and hopefully profit from it today.
Firstly, Alki don’t play at home – they ground-share with Anorthosis Famagusta, although the stadium does in fact belong to Anorthosis Famagusta. Secondly, Alki are not a well-supported side and with clubs like AEK in Larnaca, it’s no surprise to know that. Thirdly, Alki have only managed to keep clean sheets in two home games in Division 1 this season so Alki conceding is generally rather expected.
With the above in mind, Alki suddenly don’t look so convincing. I have to admit to being seduced by some of their passages of play so far this season. They do knock the ball around nicely compared to the horrible team that they were last season and they should probably have enough to avoid the drop this season. However, they’re not world-beaters and I don’t see how they can possibly be as short as they are today, especially without their most important player Dobrasinovic in midfield and without big Bulgarian hitman Bashov up front. Vasconcelos returns up front to partner Arnal Llibert but it’s not a “special” attack and I think they could struggle here.
Ermis are not in a good way, of course. Even for those who don’t follow Cypriot – it’s not a secret. Their league placing is justified this season due to some horrendous football, poor morale, and big financial issues. Things got so badly lately that Ermis had to part ways with all of their foreign players and stick entirely with their local produce, which generally means that they’re relegated in the eyes of most people and I couldn’t really argue against it.
However, what I will make a case for is their valiant displays. Say what you will about their reduced quality due to their foreigners departing but they’ve countered that with tenacity and drive. They were so strong against Omonia Nicosia in their last Division 1 game that the 0-2 scoreline wasn’t really a fair reflection of the game. Since then, they’ve actually dumped giants Apollon Limassol out of the Cypriot Cup so morale should be pretty high here. Ermis don’t really have anything to lose here as things can’t really get any worse for them and the reverse psychological effect that that creates looks to be inspiring them and I for one wouldn’t write them off from getting a “surprise” result against a side that is only marginally better than they are.
I fancy Ermis to score at least once here and if they do then this bet should cruise home, really. Alki aren’t that good and the odds are a complete joke, in my view. Therefore, my call is to give the determined visitors a +1.5 goal head start here at generous odds of 11/10.
Verdict: Ermis to win with a +1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Perth Glory – Sikora, Coyne, Taggart, Neville, Young, and Pantelidis are absent. Dodd is a doubt.
Gold Coast United – Broadfoot, Moss, Minniecon, Beekmans, MacAllister, and Porter are absent. Brown and Tyson are doubts.
Cypriot Division 1:
Alki Larnaca – Dobrasinovic and Basov are absent. Vansconselos returns.
Ermis – No absentees.
Finnish Liiga Cup:
IFK Mariehamn – Okodugha, Forsell, and Wicks are absent.
Haka Valkeakoski – Pesonen, Lintunen, Luoto, Popovitch, Matrone, and Mattila are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Granada – Roberto is absent.
Malaga – Ruben, van Nistelrooy, Sanchez, Isco, Joaquin, and Baptista are absent.