TFT Issue 309!
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Featured game
Swansea City vs Norwich City – home win at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the Premier League game in Wales between Swansea City and Norwich City.
The more I see of Swansea, the more I like them! I wish they had a proper striker in which I had some faith but every other aspect of this team ticks all the boxes that I need them to in order for me to back them. Boss Rodgers has signed a new deal this week to keep him at the club and is it any wonder? He’s done a terrific job with Swansea this season and they’ve looked every bit the proper Premier League side that no Championship side should realistically be able to do in their first year in the Premier League.
During the transfer window, Swansea were very smart with their signings, giving the most vital area of their team (midfield) plenty of alternatives with the loan signings of McEachran and Sigurdsson, the latter of which I am huge fan of. Loan signings cost very little but those two joining the club could ultimately be priceless as Rodgers can field a strong squad even with rotation now and that all but guarantees Swansea a place in the Premier League next season. They play terrific football with quick wide men and are very hard to play against. Swansea are also hard to score against at home and to be honest, I fancy them to take anyone on at home and achieve a positive result, especially with them playing with such confidence!
Visitors Norwich are a bit of a favourite with me too with their naive but impressive all-out-attack tactics. However, they’ve struggled lately with a bit of fatigue and it’s affecting their displays, in my view. They weren’t great against WBA in the FA Cup and were horrible in their 3-0 defeat at under-strength Sunderland. Their 2-0 win against Bolton was far from inspiring and it’s almost like Norwich are starting to lose a bit of that attacking spark.
It’s only to be expected, I suppose – you need to rotate your squad and Lambert can’t really do that as Norwich don’t have quality in-depth. I do expect Norwich to slow down and I think it’s already started, to be honest. They face another issue today as both Ayala and Whitbread are absent, which ruins Lambert’s hopes of having a recognisable pairing in central defence. Norwich are still a threat on the attack but to penetrate Swansea and to keep them out are rapidly becoming two very tricky things to do, especially in Wales, and Norwich don’t look up to it right now.
For me, there’s value on the home win at 10/11. I think Swansea look a much more solid unit than Norwich right now and as long as The Swans take their chances, the home win should come here.
Verdict: Swansea City to win at 10/11.
Additional games
Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Heart – home win at 11/10.
There’s only one word to describe the recent form of Newcastle Jets; inspired. Wheelhouse’s return has made this side a force again and although I don’t rate them as title challengers, they’re certainly a lot better off than they were. There’s lots of experience in this well-organised team and back-to-back away wins against sides that are frankly better than they are should propel them to victory here. The result against Sydney arguably flattered them but the result was fair and thus I am taking the Jets very seriously here as they’re particularly good at home. Of course, Melbourne Heart are no pushovers and this won’t be an easy game for the Jets. However, the absence of Hoffman up front, Fred in midfield, and especially attacking midfielder Dugandzic makes me doubt the capabilities of the visitors in this game, especially with no wins since 2011. For me, the Jets should have enough to win this one and the odds are worth a shot at 11/10.
Verdict: Newcastle Jets to win at 11/10.
St.Mirren vs Motherwell – away win with draw no bet at evens.
Although St.Mirren have something of a reputation in Scotland of being hard to beat, they’re not a side that wins games very often. They’re pretty well-organised and they work very hard but they lack the firepower to win most games and this one should be another “impossible” game for them. That’s not to overestimate Motherwell, of course, but more to emphasise the lack of firepower on the side of the hosts. They’ve started to look tired of late, which is no doubt due to their limited squad, and the absence of McLean doesn’t help their cause today. I think the most that the hosts can get here is a draw and they’ll need some assistance to do that.
Motherwell, on the other hand, have been like a breath of fresh air in the SPL this season. They’ve played good football and reaped the rewards of doing so. They’re more impressive on the ball than their hosts and they look dangerous in front of goal. There’s a fine mixture of experience, youth, pace, strength, and skill in their ranks that you don’t really see outside of Glasgow in the SPL. Estonian loanee Ojamaa is making tremendous waves in the Motherwell ranks with some terrific dribbling skills being exhibited on a frequent basis. The only sides that have actually beaten Motherwell this season when Motherwell have been the visitors have been Rangers, Celtic, and Hearts – that’s not a bad record at all. Motherwell are almost at full-strength here and with their attacking skills tearing other sides to shreds, I think they’re in a prime position to upset St.Mirren’s “we’re hard to beat” stance.
Therefore, the away win with draw no bet appeals to me a lot at evens today.
Verdict: Motherwell to win with draw no bet at evens.
Racing Santander vs Atletico Madrid – away win at 11/10.
I suppose I should be concerned that Miranda and Godin are out for Atletico here but I’m not. True enough, defence has been the foundation for success under Simeone and five clean sheets in a row leading them into this game is virtually unheard of from Atletico. However, Simeone has got this side fighting for him and that matters here. Nobody wins in Santander without fighting but Atletico look up for the fight (for a change!). I’d be more concerned about their defensive absentees if they weren’t facing the worst side in the division but they are. The best thing Racing could do would be to bring back Marcelino to save them (again!) but I don’t think their chairman has the balls to do it after last time. Racing are very short on options in all areas of their team and if Atletico match them for effort then Racing won’t have any advantage here other than being at home. As long as Atletico feed Falcao then they should win this one fairly easily and thus 11/10 on the away sits very nicely with me indeed.
Verdict: Atletico Madrid to win at 11/10.
Real Betis Balompie vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – over 2.5 goals at evens.
I do like this one but it may also be an in-play one, if that makes sense. I don’t know why but games between Athletic and clubs from Andaluscia tend to produce red cards. There’s still some bad blood here from the incident a few years ago where Athletic’s veteran goalkeeper Armando was hit by a missile thrown by Betis fans. Athletic went on to win the game so Betis weren’t too pleased either!
So, yeah – men being sent off here is quite a possibility, especially with ex-Athletic youngster Benat in the middle of the park for Betis. Herrera misses out for Athletic, which could and probably will affect their attacking game as they don’t have a natural replacement for him. Athletic play a pacey wide game as it is but now they’ve no “Plan B” without Herrera to create an alternative route to goal. However, Athletic are good enough at their wide game to cause problems here and Betis are crap at the back so I envision Los Leones at least scoring here.
Winning, though? I’m not so sure about that. Betis don’t inspire me nor fill me with confidence but they’ve got some good players and they do score goals. Attacking is something that they’re simply good at and I think they’ll score against an Athletic defence that frankly terrifies me sometimes. I watched Athletic entertain Mirandes earlier this week and conceding twice against a side that they were vastly better than throughout the whole game just mystified me. Betis can and most probably will take advantage of that tonight.
Will it go over 2.5 goals though? That’s the big question, I guess, which is partially why this could be a bit of an in-play one. You need to observe how Athletic cope without Herrera and how well Betis are attacking. If both are good then it should easily clear over 2.5 goals. If neither are working well, a bad-temepred 1-1 is not impossible. Nonetheless, the odds are tempting and given the attacking nature of both sides, I have to roll with over 2.5 goals here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
MS Ashdod vs Hapoel Haifa – under 2 goals at 7/5.
Ashdod’s main playmaker Revivo misses this game and his side aren’t in good form. Who don’t they want to face? Hapoel Haifa, of course! Hapoel are easily one of the most stubborn sides in the Ligat Ha’al, especially away from home. Given that the visitors are nearly at full-strength and that the hosts are struggling to make their dominance count in games, I can only see a low-scoring game emerging here. A draw is not out of the question but under 2 goals appeals to me a lot at 7/5.
Verdict: Under 2 goals at 7/5.
Cagliari vs Palermo – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Team news is imperative to placing this bet! Palermo reportedly have doubts over Miccoli. If he’s out then disregard this bet. If he starts then I am happy.
Two sides lock horns in Sardinia here that have both massively improved lately. Both have bolstered their attacking options and both sides have players that can trouble the other for varying reasons. For example, I can’t see Palermo’s defence handling the power of Colombian striker Ibarbo and Chilean striker Pinilla knows all about his former club, of course! Cagliari are pleasing on the eye when Nainggolan turns it on and if they apply the same effort here as they have in recent weeks then they can win this one today. Palermo are generally awful on the road and thus you have to favour Cagliari here. However, Palermo have looked very, very strong lately and the signing of ex-Atalanta Bergamo youngster Donati has improved their passing greatly. Miccoli looks like he’s 21 somehow and just destroys opposing defences whenever given chance. Big Igor Budan is in a good vein of form with the towering striker causing no end of problems for opponents in the air. However, the heartbeat of the team is Miccoli so again, leave this bet if he doesn’t start.
That said, I expect Miccoli to start and thus I expect this game to go over 2.5 goals. Red cards may be possible between the respective island clubs but two sides that play with plenty of passion and general attacking intent should produce an over 2.5 goals game here, especially with both sides playing with confidence due to recent good runs.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Fulham vs Stoke City – home win at evens.
Zamora out; Pogrebnyak in. I suppose that says more about Jol’s intent to make Fulham’s football more easy on the eye than it does about Fulham’s aspirations this season. Pogrebnyak isn’t as strong in the air as Zamora – not many are, mind you! – but he is better on the ground than Zamora is. The Russian striker is a threat when left alone but it’ll take time to adjust so let’s not get carried away with the target man here.
I’m happy to get carried away with Dembele and Ruiz, though – they’ve looked superb this season, not to mention tireless Clint Dempsey. Fulham look very strong in midfield and good on the ball. They create lots of chances nowadays and if they take them then you have to fancy them to win, especially at Craven Cottage. They’re generally good at holding their own, too, something that Stoke hate to see when playing away from home and trailing because they rarely have enough in the tank to penetrate their opponents and change the game. Fulham have enough in their midfield to dominate Stoke here and reap the benefits by scoring. If they take the lead then I expect Fulham to hold it, to be blunt.
Stoke miss the suspended Huth here, as unhappy as Tony Pulis may be about it. They do have strength in-depth at the back, Stoke, but Huth is generally the mainstay of the team and they’ll miss him here. Stoke haven’t impressed for the majority of the season on the road and you have to question whether Pulis might start taking the UEFA Europa League more seriously now that Stoke have progressed to this stage. Stoke face Valencia CF next week so they may rest players here despite Pulis’ lack of interest in the competition earlier this season. Either way, Stoke haven’t impressed of late and they don’t impress on the road. Even the impending return of talismanic winger Etherington doesn’t dampen my confidence here.
For me, this is Fulham’s game to throw away. They should have enough to win it at evens against Stoke today.
Verdict: Fulham to win at evens.
JJK Jyvaskyla vs VPS Vaasa – home win at 4/5.
As usual, Finnish odds are darting around all over the place for no reason but in this instance, I’m hoping to profit from it.
First of all, JJK are better than VPS. They’re a lot better than VPS, actually. They play superb football (from a Finnish perspective at least) and have arguably the best midfield in the country. They’ve not decreased in quality since last season so should still be top four material this time around. They created plenty of chances in their 1-1 draw with bitter rivals KuPS Kuoipo but ultimately failed to make it count due to some rustiness. That should have predominantly gone ahead of this game, though, and I expect JJK to be much more ruthless in front of goal as a result.
VPS have made some good signings pre-season but have other problems to deal with right now, namely absentees. They’ve already lost one game to bitter rivals Jaro Pietarsaari for that exact reason and another defeat looms large here in my view. They’ve no goalkeeper with Henriksson and Eriskson absent, other than trialists. They’ve no defence now that they’ve sold Tanska to TPS Turku and found out that Koskimaa is injured. They’ve no midfield given that mainstay Bjork is injured and Strandvall is on international duty. VPS struggle enough to score goals without these kind of absences! I think VPS will be ripped to shreds here, if I’m honest. As long as JJK get over their rustiness and demonstrate motivation for this competition then this should result in a dominant home win, possibly beating the handicap if JJK feel like it.
Verdict: JJK Jyvaskyla to win at 4/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets – Culina and Kantarovski are absent.
Melbourne Heart – Zahra, Ibrahim, Fred, Kalmar, Behich, Dugandzic, Thompson, Hoffman, and Taseski are absent.
Sydney FC – Emerton returns. Cole is a doubt. Ryall, Petaros, and Antonis are absent.
Perth Glory – Sikora, Mitchell, Berger, Neville, Taggart, and Coyne are absent.
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna – Klein, Rogulj, Amberger, and Grunwald are absent.
SV Ried – Karner and Hammerer are absent.
Sturm Graz – Holzl, Okotie, and Bukva are absent.
SV Mattersburg – Doleschlal, Domoraud, and Steiner are absent.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk – Joneleit, Limbombe, Vanden Borre, Koteles are absent. Hyland returns.
Lokeren – Barry, Deekman are absent. Persoons returns.
Germinal Beerschot – Angeli and Laerenbergh are absent.
Sint-Truiden – Andrade, Reza, Volders, and van Crombrugge are absent.
Kortrijk – Capon and Vandenbroeck are absent.
Mons – Mbow is absent.
Lierse SK – Ayew, Goris, Adesanya, and Grncaroc are absent. Gaxa returns.
Zulte-Waregem – Matton is absent.
Westerlo – Vanaudenaerde, Arbeitman, Cardoso, Deelkens, Owusu, Roef, Wils, Marcao, Farssi, and Delen are absent. Goor and Cabeke return.
OH Leuven – Hayen, Dehond, and Vangoethem are absent.
Cercle Brugge – Gombami, Verbist, Reis, and Rudy are absent.
Mechelen – Vidarsson, van Loo are absent. de Witte returns.
Cypriot Division 1:
Apollon Limassol – Sissoko is absent.
Nea Salamis – Pekarik is absent. Benitez returns. Souza, Oper, and Lambropoulos are doubts.
AEK Larnaca – Pindado, Garcia, Yakubu, Pavlou, and Hofland are absent.
Omonia Nicosia – Leandro, Karypides, Markasa, and Efrem are absent. Christofi and Makrides are doubts.
English Championship:
Blackpool – Southern is absent.
Portsmouth – Norris and Varney are absent.
Peterborough United – Taylor is a doubt.
West Ham United – Nolan, Demel, Diop, and Morrison are absent.
Ipswich Town – Bowyer is absent.
Middlesbrough – Coynem, Bailey, Zemmama, and McDonald are absent. Robson, Haroun, and Emnes are doubts.
Nottingham Forest – Maloney and Cunningham are absent.
Watford – McGinn and Taylor are absent.
Reading – No absentees.
Coventry City – Hreidarsson, Hussey, Cameron, Christie, C.Thomas, McDonald are absent.
Millwall – Stewart, Racon, and Mkandwire are absent. N’Guessan is a doubt.
Derby County – Robinson is absent.
Southampton – Hooiveld is absent.
Burnley – No absentees.
Leicester City – Danns, King, Waghorn, Vassell, Schlupp, Bamba, and Pantil are absent. Delfouneso is a doubt.
Cardiff City – Harris is a doubt.
Hull City – No absentees.
Bristol City – Wilson, Bolasie, Nyatanga, Carey, and Kilkenny are absent.
Leeds United – No absentees.
Brighton & Hove Albion – Sparrow, Elphick, and Dicker are absent.
Barnsley – Dawson is absent.
Birmingham City – N’Daw is absent.
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Jaro Pietarsaari – Aho, Brunell, and Niang are absent. Sara, Skrabb, and Tahvanainen are doubts.
KuPS Kuopio – Tabe, Nissinen, Paananen, and Hynynen are absent.
JJK Jyvaskyla – No news.
VPS Vaasa – Henriksson, Eriksson, Strandvall, Koskimaa, and Bjork are absent. Morrissey is a doubt.
German Bundesliga:
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Koch, Bender, and Gotze are absent.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Adler, Barnetta, Kadlec, and Sam are absent.
Bayern Munich – Contento, Van Buyten, and Schweinsteiger are absent.
Kaiserslautern – Burgera, Kuemaha, and Borysiuk are absent.
Werder Bremen – Naldo, Prodl, Borowski, Hunt, and Pizarro are absent.
Hoffenheim – Jaissle, Ibertsberger, Vorsah, Babel, and Salilhovic are absent.
Mainz 05 – Bell, Risse, Gopko, and Svensson are absent.
Hannover 96 – Andreasen, Carlitos, Hauger, Ya Konan, Miller, and Pogatetz are absent.
VfB Stuttgart – Boka, Audel, Gebhart, Molinaro, and Traore are absent.
Hertha BSC Berlin – Franz, Lell, Neumann, and Lustenberger are absent.
Borussia Moenchengladbach – No absentees.
Schalke 04 – Fahrmann, Jones, Kluge, Holtby, and Baumjohann are absent.
Greek Super League:
OFI Crete – No absentees.
PAOK Salonika – Etto, Glykos, and Athanasiadis are absent.
PAS Giannina – de Vicenti, Tzimpoulos, Pantos, and Lila are absent.
Panionios – No news.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Petah Tikva – Duani, Cohen, and Fishbein are absent.
Maccabi Netanya – Binyanin is absent.
MS Ashdod – Revivo and Butbul are absent.
Hapoel Haifa – Roash is absent.
Bnei Sakhnin – Radi is absent.
Hapoel Acre – Capiloto is absent.
Hapoel Rishon Lezion – Halevi and Gomes are absent.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Antebi and Oremus are absent. Suler is a doubt. Big internal problems due to prolonged arguments between Tamuz and owner.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Yeini, Atar, and Medunjanin are absent.
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Menashe is absent.
Ironi Ramat Hasharon – No absentees.
Beitar Jerusalem – Cohen and Moyal are absent. Manager Naim has left.
Italian Serie A:
Cagliari – Nene, Eriksson, and Sampaio are absent.
Palermo – Bacinovic is absent. Miccoli, Hernandez, and Migliaccio are doubts.
Udinese – Asamoah and Badu are absent. Coda, Barreto, Pinzi, Floro Flores, and Torje are doubts.
AC Milan – Boateng, Flamini, Cassano, Yepes, Aquilani, Gattuso, Pato, Merkel, Strasser, Nesta, van Bommel, and Ibrahimovic are absent. Abbiati is a doubt.
Dutch Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar – Johansson is absent.
Excelsior Rotterdam – Nuytinck, de Vries, Fillecia, van Buren, and Eekman are absent.
VVV Venlo – Gentenaar, Linssen, Leemans, and Kruijsen are absent.
Groningen – Ivens, van de Laak, Johansson, Pedersen, Andersson, and Enevoldsen are absent.
Roda JC Kerkrade – Biemans is absent.
NEC Nijmegen – Ibrahim, Will, and Wellenberg are absent.
NAC Breda – Lurling, van Fessem, Zonneveld, Gudelj, and Gillisen are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Ooijer, Boerrigter, van der Wiel, Sigthorsson, Boilesen, and Janssen are absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Maritimo Funchal – Pouga, Olberdam, and Ibrahim are absent.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Capel, Rodriguez, and Jeffren are absent.
SL Benfica – Maxi Pereira is absent.
CD Nacional de Madeira – Moreno, Vladan, Aurelio, and Rondon are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Dunfermline Athletic – Gallacher, Hutton, Phinn, and Bell are absent.
Rangers – Naismith, Ness, Lafferty, and Whittaker are absent.
Celtic – Rogne is a doubt.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Williams, McKay, Tudur-Jones, Doran, Golobart, Hogg, and Shinnie are absent.
Hibernian – Soares, Griffiths, Hanlon, McPake, Galbraith, and Murray are absent.
Aberdeen – Anderson, Milsom, Osbourne, Folly, Rae, Pawlett, Paton, and Uchechi are absent.
Kilmarnock – No absentees.
Hearts – Kyle is absent.
St.Johnstone – No news.
Dundee United – Swanson, Severin, and Mentel are absent.
St.Mirren – Murray, McLean, and McGregor are absent.
Motherwell – Saunders and Hollis are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Racing Santander – No absentees.
Atletico Madrid – Miranda, Lopez, and Assuncao are absent.
Osasuna – Ruben, Sola, Roversio, Shojaei, and Echaide are absent.
Barcelona – Fontas, Keita, Villa, and Afellay are absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Mario, Amaya, and Vadillo are absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Herrera, Gabilondo, Ocio, Castillo, and Gurpegi are absent.