TFT Issue 31!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Viktoria Plzen vs Hradec Kralove
Today’s featured game is the Czech Gambrinus Liga encounter between league leaders Viktoria Plzen and Hradec Kralove.
On paper, this game is a “dead cert” home win but I’m not so sure here. Plzen are the better team than Hradec Kralove but they’re simply not good enough to earn odds of 1/3, in my view.
Plzen parted with two essential defenders – Rada and Navratil – in January so the backbone of their unit has been effectively ripped out. They’ve kept hold of their talented attacking players i.e. Rezek, Kolar so their potency shouldn’t suffer here but I expect those losses to do a lot of damage to the club’s plans for this season so be wary of backing them in the latter stages of this campaign. They should have enough to win this game today but after a break and two big losses, who knows? I certainly wouldn’t back them to win this game at such laughably short odds.
I can partially understand why they’re so short, though – Kralove are a pretty terrible side that almost certainly won’t be playing Gambrinus Liga football next season as a result. However, they’re refreshed from the break and they know the opportunity is there to give Plzen a good game so I think they’ll at least score here, despite the fact that their predominant issue this season has actually been goalscoring. Neither side will be 100% ready for this game as you need competitive games to get back into the swing of things so it seems fair to expect mistakes and stupid goals here.
Either way, there looks to be good value odds on over 2.5 goals in this game. Plzen average scoring nearly three goals per home game and conceding almost a goal per home game. Kralove’s statistics aren’t as convincing but hopefully the departures of Rada and Navratil will give them the necessary openings here. Either way, over 2.5 goals looks a decent bet at 3/4 – it should be shorter with Plzen’s potency taken into consideration.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.