TFT Issue 317!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Alki Larnaca vs AEK Larnaca – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Cypriot derby in Larnaca between minnows Alki and financial heavyweights AEK.
I don’t expect this to be the usual derby as Alki are too small to even have a recognisable fanbase but nonethless local sides are local sides; it doesn’t take much to set them off.
Alki have looked good this season, throwing caution to the wind with their new attacking approach and it’s been quite effective too. Admittedly, it’s been more effective “at home” than it has away from home but either way – Alki are scoring goals and it’s making them hard to play against. A run of four consecutive wnis in all competitions will have only enhanced their confidence and they’ll enter this derby with a real sense of belief, in my view. Let’s face it – only Omonia Nicosia have scored more goals than Alki have when it comes to playing on their own turf this season so Alki need to be treated with caution here.
AEK are unquestionably better than Alki but it doesn’t always matter, does it? Lots of things dictate the outcome of a game of football with quality only counting for a percentage of it. As it happens, I’m fairly confident that AEK won’t win this one today, superior though they unquestionably are. They’ve looked sluggish and predictable over the past few weeks, contrary to what their results suggest. You can only respect a side if they’re winning games as they should but be wary that not all is as it seems at AEK right now. For today’s game, AEK are struggling because Hofland and De Cler are out. The former is the most integral defender in AEK’s backline with the latter being a consistently reliable full-back. The backbone of AEK’s success is based on defence, of which they’re missing 50% of today – that’s never good news! Additionally, their only reliable goalscorer Garcia is absent too. That’s not to say that AEK won’t score here but more to say that they shouldn’t do as much here as you could normally expect them to. They do happily welcome back Pindado, which does aid their attack quite considerably. With those three instrumental players out today, though, it’s hard to see anything but a 1x game emerging here.
That said, the 1×2 market holds no value to me so let’s avoid that market altogether! Instead, I’m happy to plump for over 2.5 goals instead. Alki can’t defend but do attack strangely well this season and should continue to do so whilst in their rich vein of form. AEK should be able to do enough to score here with Pindado back but I’d be surprised to see them keep a clean sheet with no Hofland to hold things together. Therefore, my call is to take over 2.5 goals at a decent price of 11/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Team news
Cypriot Division 1:
Alki Larnaca – Stylianiou is absent.
AEK Larnaca – Hofland, Garcia, and De Cler are absent. Pindado, Pavlou, and Flemings return.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sigma Olomouc – Bajer, Prikryl, and Murin have left. Dreksa, Jirous, Podany, Ordos may debutise. New coach – Ulicny. Janotka, Horava, and Petr are absent. Rossi is a doubt.
Ceske Budejovice – Timm, Rakovan, and Horejs have left. Reznicek, Krajcik, and Repka may debutise. Novak, Strasky, Bakala, and Brezinsky are absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Beitar Jerusalem – Levi is absent. Cohen, Moyal, and Fernandes return.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Dabur, Micha, and Konate demoted to the youth team. Pavicevic, Yeini, Atar, and Yitzhaki return. Owner Goldhar has stated he’s looking for a replacement coach for interim coach Levin.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Korona Kielce – Golanski, Golebiewski, Luczak, and Szlakotin may debutise. Cebula, Maliszewski, Pilarz, Zielinski, Kicinski, Jedryka, Hernani, and Lisowski have left. Kuzera, Kiljanskas, Lisowski, and Przybecki are absent.
Jagiellonia Bialystok – Kascelan, Dzalamidze, Kostuch, Kalista, Zubowicz, Sandomierski, Bandrowski, Gusic, and Nowotka may debutise. Kukol, Canas, Maycon, Fidziukiewicz, Soczynski, Skerla, Hermes, Kascelan, Baran, Bartczak, El Mehdi Sidqy, and Slowik have left. Hajto’s first game in charge. Norambuena is absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Zaragoza – Lanzaro and Mateos are absent. Lacruz returns.
Real Betis Balompie – Iriney, Amaya, Vadillo, and Sergio Rodriguez are absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Bursaspor – No absentees.
Istanbul BB – Vinicius, Hasagic, Efe Inanc, and Ali Guzeldal are absent.