TFT Issue 324!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Slovenia vs Scotland – lay Slovenia at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the International Friendly between Slovenia and Scotland.
Although Slovenia are widely considered to be the better of these two sides, I’d argue that there’s actually very little between them. Slovenia are a very efficient team and perhaps have more household names around Europe (marginally, at least) but there’s not much else in their favour. Slovenia are a well-marshalled, physical side that don’t suffer fools easily. Anyone that treats them with contempt will generally fail to beat them. However, as favourites, Slovenia really struggle and it’s because they find it hard to score goals. Barring the excellent Tim Matavz, all of Slovenia’s strikers are pretty much in the same mould – Ljubljankic is quick but lacks finesse and Novakovic has experience but not much else. It’s all too predictable, to be honest. It doesn’t help that the only good playmaker Slovenia possess is Robert Koren, whom I like a lot as a footballer. However, Koren has declined to play for his national side in this game as he’s retired from international football, as has Novakovic. Add to the equation that Tim Matavz has an injury and we have a very well-organised side with no creativity and no good strikers. Never say never and all that shit but if Slovenia score here then it’ll be a set piece or bad play from Scotland.
Scotland have a problem in the holding midfielder area as both Scott Brown and Darren Fletcher miss out for this game. There are some possible replacements but I’m not too concerned because Koren isn’t playing for Slovenia, which means that the hosts should realistically attempt a wider game. Scotland have good wingers for this game in Bannan, Forrest etc. and Charlie Adam can make them tick if he so desires. I’ve always had a lot of time for battling Kenny Miller – he’s a bit like a poor man’s Craig Bellamy (and that’s no insult) but he’s very tenacious and effective. Scotland bring a lot of experience and organisation into this game themselves and with hardly any notable absentees, I think they’ll do a good job in this game.
For me, this has 0-0 or 1-1 written all over it so I can’t help but feel that laying Slovenia is the way forward in this game.
Verdict: Lay Slovenia at 5/6.
Additional games
Armenia vs Canada – Armenia to win with draw no bet at evens.
Armenia played yesterday; Canada didn’t. That explains the odds, first and foremost.
So why am I interested in Armenia here? Well, they rested almost all of their big guns against Serbia for reasons unbeknown to me. They’ve brought them here for a reason, though, and I doubt it’d be solely to create some kind of showdown with tournament hosts Cyprus after this game. I think we’ll see Mkhitaryan, Manucharyan, Movsisyan etc. playing in this game and that makes Armenia better than Canada, in my view. Canada are well-organised but lack quality from what I have seen. There’s experience from McKenna, Klukowski, Julian de Guzman, Hutchinson, Simpson etc. but nothing I’m particularly concerned about. Hume and Jackson can be a handful up front but there’s no spark in this squad without Bernier, Peters, de Rosario, or even Gerba. Aside from that, it’s not the type of tournament to only play your big players in – I suspect we may see Haber and Piette try to make a name for themselves and that should give Armenia the necessary confidence and openings here.
It’s risky as Armenia did play yesterday but given that most of their big players didn’t feature, I think taking Armenia to win with draw no bet cover is very appealing at evens.
Verdict: Armenia to win with draw no bet at evens.
Scotland U21 vs Netherlands U21 – lay Netherlands U21 at 10/11.
I’ve absolutely zero idea why the Dutch are so short for this game. True enough, they always produce a good U21 squad and this one is decent too. However, it has to be noted that they’re somewhat short of stars nowadays with far too many of their kids entering the “average” bracket rather than talented. They’ve been very fortunate on the road this season, winning 0-1 at Bulgaria U21 in a game that they didn’t deserve to win and getting flattened in Austria but somehow emerging with the points. I don’t see this game being any easier as Scotland have a very good U21 side, in my view. It’s not as the one they had a year or so ago so don’t get me wrong here. However, they’re real battlers and they’re better than those odds suggest. I think the Dutch are in for a tough game at what is always a tough country to play in as a visitor. For me, there’s plenty of value in laying the Dutch at 10/11.
Verdict: Lay Netherlands U21 at 10/11.
Team news
Internationals
Finland – D.Sjoholm is a doubt.
Slovenia – Koren, Novakovic, and Matavz are absent.
Italy – Balottelli, di Natale, and Osvaldo are absent. Little interest in this game.
Poland – Lewandowski, Boenisch, Wojtkowiak, and Boruc are absent. Wasilewski is a doubt.
Portugal – Carlos Martins and Varela are absent.
Romania – Pleasca, Luchin, St.Radu, Matei, Nicolita, Chipciu, and Herea are absent.
Australia – Cahill, Wilshere, Jedinak, McKay, and Valeri are absent.
Saudi Arabia – Noor is absent.
Japan – Honda, Kagawa, and J.Tanaka are absent.
Uzbekistan – Geynrikh, Tursunov, Djeperov, Galiulin, Akhmedov, Mulladjanov, and Tokhtakhodjaev are absent. Haydorav is a doubt.
Republic of Ireland – Doyle, Kelly, and O’Dea are absent.
Czech Republic – Rosicky and Hubnik are absent.
Turkey – Volkan Demirel, Hamit Altintop, Halil Altintop, Kazim Kazim, and Emre are absent.
Slovakia – Hipp’s first game in charge. No absentees.
Bulgaria – Berbatov, S.Petrov, and M.Petrov are absent.
Hungary – Gera and Rudolf are absent. Szalai returns.
Cyprus – Okkas, Konstantinou, Aloneftis, and Giorgallides are absent.
Israel – Gutman’s first game in charge. No absentees.
Bulgaria U21 – No absentees.
Finnish Liiga Cup:
FC Lahti – Mero, Rafael, and Hietanen are absent. Shala is a doubt. Game not at Lahti’s usual home ground as they’ve moved.
FC Honka Espoo – Heikkila, Vayrynen, Tammilehto, and Viitala are absent.