TFT Issue 329!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Arsenal vs AC Milan – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game between Arsenal and AC Milan. The first leg ended 4-0 in favour of the Italian giants so the tie realistically should be over but Wenger won’t let his side roll over and die.
I seem to recall AC Milan being in a commanding position before taking Deportivo La Coruna on a few years back and still going out after an outstanding display from Deportivo. It’s not like Arsenal aren’t capable of destroying AC Milan, to be honest. AC Milan hate dealing with pace and just because Arsenal didn’t show what they’re capable of in the first leg definitely doesn’t mean that they won’t upset their Italian guests here.
Still, far be it from me to enter the 1×2 market – Italian sides don’t do well on the road and Arsenal concede too many goals to be offered as short as they are for this game. I’d be interested with draw no bet but certainly not at the ridiculous odds it’s currently at.
However, over 2.5 goals definitely interests me here because I feel very confident that both sides will score. Arsenal almost always score at home and let’s face it – they’re arguably the most in-form side in the Premier League right now so they’re not short on confidence. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain by giving a convincing display here and in a way, I think that helps some sides with their motivation. Why not claim a massive scalp for their fans? AC Milan certainly don’t need to win here!
Still, Milan are a professional side and I’m sure that their strong attacking presence in the game will make itself felt, one way or another. They’ve got more than enough players to rile a dodgy Arsenal defence and I’d be surprised to see them exiting this game without scoring. Despite the consistently strong displays of Thiago Silva at the back for Milan, I do think Van Persie and co. will score against Arsenal here though. Arsenal didn’t show Milan what they were capable of in the first leg and it will probably cost them their place in the next round. I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake twice, albeit they may still go out as a result.
So, yeah – I have to expect goals here. I think over 2.5 goals is well worth a bet at 4/5 and I think there’s plenty of in-play value on goals etc.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
BATE Borisov vs Gomel – BATE Borisov to win at evens.
Ok – time to welcome back betting from Belarus. I’m a big fan; most people aren’t. However, let’s see if we can persuade them to think otherwise with today’s game!
It’s the Belarusian Super Cup so motivation won’t be 100% as it’s not very prestigious. The game is played in the nation’s capital, Minsk, so support is fairly equal with both sides being rather big. Last season, BATE failed to beat Gomel in both of their meetings with the Vysshaya Liga newcomers but I fancy today’s game to end differently.
It’s one thing to stop Goncharenko’s BATE Borisov playing football but it’s another to make a habit of it. BATE were the weakest last year that they have been for about five or six years and Goncharenko knew it, hence him signing a good number of players pre-season.
Now, BATE Borisov’s big problem last season was scoring goals. It’s no coincidence that there was a large number of games missed by talismanic striker Vitali Rodionov through injury, who is unsurprisingly still injured, would you believe! Goncharenko reacted and brought in a couple of much needed attackers as former Belarus U21 starlet Skavysh was not enough up front on his own without the necessary experience. Goncharenko signed Mazalewski from Dinamo Brest but most intriguingly he brought Brazilian forward Maicon back to Belarus from Poland. The latter signing is very interesting indeed and I’ll explain why shortly. I don’t know who Goncharenko intends to use as his primary striker when Rodionov is not available but his recent press conference has suggested that not only are BATE Borisov are still trying out new formations (hence poor results during their friendlies in Turkey) but also that they’d probably start playing two up front, which is excellent. BATE know how to defend but they do it too often; if they attack then they’ll destroy every side in Belarus, basically. Renan Bressan is the best playmaker and set piece specialist in the country and is now demonstrating that on a bigger stage having finally been eligible to play for Belarus and seizing the opportunity with both hands, playing his first game for Belarus about a week ago.
So – Maicon. Why does this fella interest me so much? Well, he was last in Belarus a couple of years ago when today’s opponents Gomel were in the division below. Gomel were absolutely immense that season, destroying every side they faced and scoring a lot of goals in the process. Guess who scored the vast majority of their goals? Yes, that’s right – Maicon. He earned himself a move to Poland and took off without playing a Vysshaya Liga game for Gomel. Well, now he’s back and wouldn’t you just know it – his first game for BATE will most likely come against Gomel. Fate is not without a sense of irony!
Maicon knows Gomel inside out and I expect him to make the difference here, whenever/however he’s utilised. BATE are a better side than Gomel; they have more attacking options and I expect it to show in this game for varying reasons. Goncharenko also worked very hard to bring Filipenko back from Russia in the pre-season and it finally paid off, which bolsters BATE’s backline considerably, which is useful as it too had question marks over it last season with new boy Simic not providing as much stability as first hoped.
Goncharenko made two other notable signings in talented Armenian winger Badoyan and right-back Gjorgievski from Vardar Skopje. Goncharenko has already stated to the press that Gjorgievski simply isn’t ready for first-team football, much to his disappointment, and that he would be unlikely to feature this season for BATE as a result. I don’t know if he was playing mind games or not but it’s a bit of a blow for BATE. Still, there’s enough quality in this BATE side now and plenty of depth so as long as the new strikers bed in well, BATE should stroll to the Vysshaya Liga title as per usual.
Now, a quick word on Gomel. They played very well last season, far surpassing my expectations for them although it cannot be ignored that Gomel profited from woeful seasons for both Dinamo Minsk and FC Minsk. Gomel did well last season through efficiency, strong tactical approaches, and belief. Gomel haven’t lost any of the above but what they have lost is personnel due to their strong showings.
Gomel lost big names pre-season, the biggest of which was Sergey Kontsevoy. The ex-Dinamo Minsk man was the captain of this team and he’s been sold to Tobol Kostanai in Kazakhstan. There is no replacement for him; this Gomel defence is nowhere near as strong without him, to be brutally honest. Gomel’s boss has accepted the concern of their fans due to a lack of leadership at the club and a lack of a replacement for Kontsevoy but has said that experienced midfielder Kashevsky will lead the team out against BATE Borisov. I’m not entirely sure what to make of all this, to be honest. Gomel rely a lot on their passionate fans and their iron banks of four but the fact is that they’re weaker without Kontsevoy and against the best side in Belarus you have to expect that to be visible.
Who else has waved farewell to Gomel? Big Estonian centre-back Stepanov left too, of course – he’s over in Cyprus with Aris Limassol now. Key winger Stasevich has re-joined Dinamo Minsk from Gomel too whilst big striker Zuev and Ukrainian midfielder Lisovyi have moved on too. Gomel are still capable of upsetting the odds with their stout formation but they’ve suffered some big blows pre-season and I don’t think that they can recover in time for this game.
If BATE want to win this game then they really should, in my view. I like what Goncharenko has done pre-season and I like the options he now has. For me, BATE should edge this game 1-0 or 2-0 but don’t be surprised if takes a while due to the changing of formation for BATE and the stubborn approach of Gomel. It may even be worth a cheeky bet on half-time draw and full-time BATE Borisov or BATE Borisov to win to nil. Either way, I like BATE winning this one at evens – a good price for the best side in Belarus to beat any other domestic side!
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win at evens.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Zenit St.Petersburg – Malaeev and Danny are absent. Criscito is a doubt.
SL Benfica – Aimar, Garay, and Djalo are absent.
AC Milan – Pato, Lopez, Boateng, Merkel, Strasser, Seedorf, Cassano, Gattuso, and Nesta are absent.
Asian Champions League:
Brisbane Roar – Nichols is absent. Henrique returns.
FC Tokyo – Kajiyama and Lucas Severino are absent.
Gamba Osaka – Keun-Ho has left. Konno and Yeoul are absent.
Pohang Steelers – Chuva and Mota have left. Zicu and Rendulic debutise.
Bunyodkor – Carney debutises.
Adelaide United – Cassio and Levchenko are absent.
English Championship:
Bristol City – Adomah, Elliott, Clarkson, Skuse, and Wilson are absent.
Leicester City – Konchesky is absent. Nugent is a doubt.
Nottingham Forest – Higginbotham, Miller, Derbyshire, McGoldrick, Harewood, and Majewski are absent.
Doncaster Rovers – Stock, Woods, Bamogo, and Friend are absent.
Southampton – Seaborne is absent. Fox is a doubt.
Ipswich Town – Bullard is absent.
Coventry City – Wood and Hreidarsson are absent.
Crystal Palace – Murray is absent. Clyne is a doubt.
Peterborough United – Taylor is a doubt.
Millwall – Racon, Mkandawire, and Mildenhall are absent. Henderson, Smith, and Trotter are doubts.
Middlesbrough – Coyne, McDonald, Zemmama, and Williams are absent.
Barnsley – O’Brien, Perkins, and Hassell are absent.
Derby County – Shackell is a doubt.
Blackpool – Taylor-Fletcher is absent.
Huil City – Brady is absent.
Leeds United – Bruce and White are absent. Bromby is a doubt.
Reading – Connolly and Kebe are absent. Griffin is a doubt.
Portsmouth – Kanu and Etuhu are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Amkar Perm’ – Cherenchikov is absent.
Krylya Sovetov Samara – Kornilenko is absent.