TFT Issue 3315!

Macarthur FC vs Wellington Phoenix 

KO: 06:05 (UK time)

Odds like this are the reason I love the A-League as much as I do. Yes, it can be wacky and frustrating at times, but it’s as plain as day that the bookies don’t watch it – or they’d have never gotten Macarthur FC as favourites to win this game, and nor would they have made Newcastle Jets favourites to beat Western Sydney Wanderers yesterday.

I backed Macarthur FC against Western Sydney Wanderers in their season opener, and they won. They got the space they needed, and ultimately punished their opponents with a deflected free-kick from Benat. For me, the win was deserved; they forced Western Sydney Wanderers into places they didn’t want to be, and although their hosts on the day did create chances, I thought Macarthur FC’s preparation was enough to earn them the win. However, it became abundantly clear against Central Coast Mariners that this team is not ready to break opponents down. With all due respect to the Mariners, if an A-League team can’t break them down, they’re going to finish bottom of the table!

I watched that game, you know, and at no stage did I feel like Macarthur FC were going to win it. Alright, I think it was a bit harsh that Central Coast Mariners beat them when a 0-0 draw would have been fair but the visitors arrived with a game-plan, and it happened to pay off. Macarthur FC were slow and ponderous in getting the ball forward and into the box, none of their wide threats performed, and it wasn’t until Rose was introduced that there was any kind of speed out wide, which did create a couple of half-chances for them but nothing more. So, yeah – I would be wary of Macarthur FC if they’re facing a good team that will attack them and give them space. Otherwise, I would oppose them like crazy until they figure out how to hurt teams that sit back.

Now, Wellington Phoenix may not be the best team in the A-League but I’d not hesitate in stating that they’re the most annoying to play against. They’re fast, strong, intense, never give opponents a minute, they defend well, and never give up. I backed them to beat Sydney FC last week, and I feel cheated that they didn’t at least get a draw. It took two wonderful shots from Sydney FC to get past The Yellow Fever, the likes of which we’ll honestly not see again this season. The game itself went exactly as I anticipated it too with Sydney FC completely and utterly on the ropes for the last twenty minutes of that game, hemmed in by a fitter, younger team. 

Sydney FC are not the team that struggles to deal with Wellington Phoenix though. They’re hard to deal with. I think they did marvellously pre-season to replace those players that they’d lost, for the most part. Hemed needs to get used to his teammates, which is to be expected, and they just need to tidy up that final ball into the box. However, this is a very good, familiar team with the same work ethic in each player. Dealing with them is a nightmare for any A-League, let alone a newly-formed one that is far from having enough cohesion right now.

I genuinely think that Wellington Phoenix are going to devastate Macarthur FC here. I really do. Macarthur FC look slow at the back, especially when dealing with counters. Goalkeeper Federici makes some excellent saves but his command of the box is seriously questionable. Macarthur FC do not pass the ball swiftly enough to get around Wellington Phoenix’s high press, and they’re not fast enough in attack to make things happen to push their opponents back. For me, this game will pan out exactly like the last twenty minutes of Sydney FC vs Wellington Phoenix did with the Kiwis hemming their hosts in because an alternative simply isn’t there.

Lastly, bear in mind that Wellington Phoenix have relocated to Australia for the foreseeable so there’s no journey issue. In fact, they’ve been playing home games in Wollongong, which is about an hour or so from Sydney, so this fixture is almost a ‘home’ game for Wellington Phoenix right now. 

For me, backing Wellington Phoenix to win this match with draw no bet at evens is a complete steal, and I’ll even boldly back them to bag over 2.5 goals along the way because I can’t imagine how Macarthur FC are going to cope with what they bring to the game, and I’m also going to back Davila to score at any time because he’s the genius in their attack.

Verdict: Wellington Phoenix to win with draw no bet at evens.
Wellington Phoenix to score over 2.5 goals at 11/2.
Davila to score at any time at 5/4.

Osnabruck vs Wurzburger Kickers

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

There has been some rather curious odds movement with this game. When I initially sized the game up mid-week, I was preparing myself to handicap Osnabruck here because I thought that, team news permitting, they could manage it. Now the odds have drifted out enough to make the home win alone worth taking so that’s what I intend to do. It’s been a very odd period though.

I mean, there’s not much of a quality gap to speak of at Bundesliga 2 level. I would also have to say that Osnabruck have over-achieved this season, and Wurzburger Kickers are capable of delivering more than they have, albeit not much more. However, in terms of effectiveness, Osnabruck are a long way ahead of Wurzburger Kickers, which is the foundation for this tip. Personally, I thought Osnabruck were an outside shot for relegation this season, given the changes they were forced into pre-season. It looked very bad for a team that were already over-achieving. However, they’ve yet again confounded critics with some outstandingly efficient displays, and I’m beginning to believe that they have special powers of survival.

I would not pay any mind to the recent form guide of Osnabruck. Contrary to what the Bundesliga 2 table may tell you, Fortuna Dusseldorf, Paderborn 07, and Holstein Kiel are three of the best teams in the division right now so winning just one of them is quite the outcome for Osnabruck. In general, this team is very consistent, and with all due respect to Wurzburger Kickers, this is a far easier encounter for Osnabruck, who have beaten similar teams all season long. Indeed, they won at newly-promoted Eintracht Braunschweig back in December, and a similar display today would be very welcome.

The credit should be spread evenly around every part of this club too. Plucking ex-Werder Bremen U19 boss Grote from relative obscurity was a stroke of genius. Persuading Santos to play at this level was another stroke of genius, as his level of finesse is far beyond the Bundesliga 2. Pairing him with Amenyido was masterful. They’re using Kerk perfectly too, and he’s responded in kind. They used the money they received wisely, Osnabruck, and now have a very well-rounded, consistent team. This is a good side. They should be respected.

Now, Wurzburger Kickers aren’t shit, despite being firmly placed at the foot of the table. It’s defending that they struggle with. When it comes to playing with spirit and belief, they’re just fine. They never give up, and they usually score at least once. Defending is not something that is on their radar though, which is why they’ve lost so many games. I also think they’ve been dealt a poor hand in 2021, having been made to host Karlsruher SC at weekend and then St. Pauli mid-week before now travelling to face Osnabruck. A newly-promoted team at this level does not have the capacity to play well every three days, and that should prove to be the case again today.

Still, they can’t be accused of not trying, Wurzburger Kickers. They’ve recently made three very interesting signings, bringing in Feltscher, Maierhofer, and Hasek, all of which should prove to be good additions at this level. I don’t care how old Austrian beanpole Maierhofer is; he’s a very, very good target man, and everywhere I’ve watched him be one over the past few years, he’s done it very well. It could be argued that they didn’t need anything more in attack, but that’s another story for another day! Hasek will add more to their midfield, and Feltscher will whip their defence into some kind of shape too.

All of the above things take time though. In due course, I think it may be safe to back Wurzburger Kickers to win games, but not today. Perhaps against Eintracht Braunschweig next weekend; let’s wait and see. For now though, I think it’s asking too much of players that have been at the club for less than a fortnight to bail them out against Osnabruck. If you play too many at once then you risk upsetting the balance of the entire team, and that’s what ultimately got Dynamo Dresden relegated last season. Given time though, Wurzburger Kickers might just stay up.

For now though, I think there’s a lot about the trip to Osnabruck that doesn’t favour the visitors, and with odds of 4/5 available on the home win, I have to trust in the ruthlessly efficient hosts.

Verdict: Osnabruck to win at 4/5.

SC Freiburg vs Koln 

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

The only thing that makes me edgy about this tip is that I don’t really know if SC Freiburg are good enough to win five Bundesliga games on the spin. They’re a team that I like a lot, and I was backing them earlier in the season when nobody else would touch them because of their form guide because they were still delivering good displays. Now they’re finally beginning to reap what they’ve sown, and that makes them lethal at home, which is the SC Freiburg I know all too well by now.

Most Bundesliga teams would cite the trip to Freiburg as one of the harder away games in the division because their hosts are constantly pumped, far more effective in front of goal than they’re given credit for, and experienced too. Furthermore, I think it’s fair to say that the current SC Freiburg side is more capable than most before it have been, and I’m not saying that because of their form guide. No, I’m saying it because of the good things they’ve done with their personnel, especially this season.

I’ll take you back a couple of years. I remember looking at their new signing, Sallai, and thinking that he was the only one in the squad that could actually make things happen for them. He was just one piece of the puzzle, though. Now the Hungarian still plays a prominent role in breaking teams down and scoring goals, but he’s got a beast of a midfielder in Santamaria alongside him, and one of the classiest Italians to ever grace the Bundesliga on the other side – Grifo. That’s with me excluding new Dutch playmaker Til, who has been told to play with the reserves until he can prove his worth; that’s how good this SC Freiburg midfield is!

They’ve still got Bundesliga veteran Petersen scoring the goals, even though he’s been a bit off-colour this season. Their Korean duo have impressed when deployed, and even Demirovic has had his moments, although like Petersen, he’s not scored as many as he’d have liked. As an attacking team, SC Freiburg should be respected. No, I don’t really trust them to keep teams out nowadays because they never really seem to have any interest in doing so. However, whilst they’re confident, they’ll outscore most teams they come up against at home, and hapless Koln should not be an exception.

I’m confident Schalke 04 are gone from the Bundesliga this season because they’re fresh out of miracles. However, I’m quietly convinced that the other team to head to Bundesliga 2 with them will be Koln. I shouldn’t be as convinced as I am, given Arminia Bielefeld’s complete lack of attacking prowess and Werder Bremen’s inability to break teams down, but I am. The reason is that Koln don’t seem to have anything between their ears at the moment. I thought they’d corrected that particular problem after being relegated to Bundesliga 2 last time, making intelligent signings, and promptly returning to the Bundesliga. Now, though? They appear to be regressing.

Look, I have nothing against Swedish striker Andersson. I think he’s a good target man, and he works bloody hard. However, to buy him off the back of one good season in the Bundesliga at Union Berlin was pure madness. He was a cog in a machine there, and struck lucky that season, which is a concept that Koln should be familiar with, having had Modeste do that all of those years ago and nothing before nor since! Nonetheless, they brought him in to be their target man and predictably nothing has happened. He’s been injured a fair bit, but two goals in ten games tells the full story. Meanwhile, Union Berlin not only got a better striker in Pohjanpalo on loan, but also brought in Awoniyi on loan, who has already been a lot more effective than Andersson. Again, that speaks volumes for the poor sense at Koln.

Now they’ve got Gisdol in charge too. I’ve nothing against him either, but has he ever done a good job anywhere? Not that I can blame him, mind you – this is not a good Koln team. I like some of their midfielders, and Skhiri is having a good campaign, but this genuinely looks like a Bundesliga 2 team to me. Their defenders make errors far too frequently, especially Mere on the rare occasion that he even plays now. Gisdol has adopted a more defensive approach of late to mask such but it’s only partially worked. Their attacking power is just non-existent though. They don’t have good enough wide players to use Andersson as a target man, which makes him redundant, and Modeste isn’t fit enough/good enough/consistent enough to play off the shoulder of the last man. Aside from the above, Andersson is out today anyway! Effectively, Koln do not bring an attacking threat into matches, so how are they going to get through today’s game?

Last season’s trip to Freiburg was the only blemish on a long record of SC Freiburg beating Koln at home. I doubt the home win has ever been more likely than it is today either. I’ve got to trust in three points for experienced boss Streich and co. today.

Verdict: SC Freiburg to win at 9/10.

Schalke 04 vs TSG Hoffenheim 

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

I despise betting on public bets, and that’s unquestionably what opposing Schalke 04 has become, but it simply makes sense to do so.

Unlike most people, it seems, I’ve been opposing Schalke 04 for quite a long time now. That’s because they’ve made a lot of mistakes, on and off the pitch, and they continue to make more of them. They’re onto manager number four of the season, and each one has just gone from hilariously sad appointment to hilariously sad appointment. It’s now Swiss manager Christian Gross that has the task of steering the club to safety, and honestly, if he manages it, I will eat my hat. I can only assume the only prerequisite for having this job is to speak German because there’s no other reason for Gross getting it after, what – fifteen years of doing a poor job wherever he’s been? I loved his FC Basel team back in the day (even though they dicked my beloved Manchester United on more than one occasion!) but that was a long time ago now.

Unsurprisingly, Gross’s men were pulverised by Hertha Berlin last time out. Hertha Berlin being better than Schalke 04 is nothing new nowadays, but playing consistently enough to win by that margin has been almost alien to the capital club – until now. That’s how bad Schalke 04 have become in every single way. I can’t even pick out players that I think would help this squad because honestly, the whole lot of them could be replaced and it’d only be an improvement. Well, that’s not fair of me because Nastasic, Kabak, Serdar, Harit, and Mascarell have their moments, and they’re never far away from producing a talented youngster. It’s been some time since any of those players performed especially well though, and most of them have injury problems.

Their most recent attempt to postpone the inevitable was to bring Bosnia-Herzegovina full-back Kolasinac back to the club on loan from Arsenal. He’ll add speed and resilience to a lightweight squad, as well as some kind of attacking intent, but it’s the tip of the iceberg really. They still need some kind of consistent back four. They still need a good first-choice goalkeeper – and to be able to name who it is! They still need width if they’re to persevere with deploying Uth as striker – or Paciencia, for that matter – and they still need flair players as Harit has gone back into his shell, which has been his pattern throughout his career. This team (mentally) looks beaten in every single game, and given that they’re offering nothing on the pitch to counteract such mental plains, it’s not hard to see why.

I mean, the fact that I handicapped Hertha Berlin against them and am now prepared to back TSG Hoffenheim to beat them tells you how bad Schalke 04 are. The latter two teams I’ve tried to avoid this season because of how inconsistent they’ve been. TSG Hoffenheim boss Hoeneb has been under a lot of pressure because, despite impressing in some tough games this season, they’ve uttererly embarrassed themselves in easy/easier games. There are still a lot of question marks about this team in terms of the options that are there. Personally, I don’t recall ever feeling as dubious about a TSG Hoffenheim side as I do right now.

However, their problems pale in comparison to those of their hosts today, and I say that despite knowing that TSG Hoffenheim have a very long list of absentees. Let’s hope Grillitsch and Kaderabek pass late fitness tests, but the likes of Rudy and a lot of their defence are out today. Luckily, their attack looks in fine fettle with Kramaric back to his bewitching best, making me wonder if Bayern Munich will go back in for him in the summertime. I mean, Muller and Lewandowski aren’t getting any younger, after all. 

I think Sessegnon has added a lot to their attack since joining too, bringing raw speed in a wide position rather than the somewhat ponderous pace they tend to adopt – well, minus Bebou. Bruun Larsen’s injury and Skov Olsen’s failure to settle has contributed to such so it’s not as if TSG Hoffenheim haven’t tried to address their weaknesses; it’s just that they’ve been unlucky. By contrast, Schalke 04 have not only invited all of their problems to dinner, but also made the bed up for them to stay over – for the rest of time. TSG Hoffenheim at least have some purpose; Schalke 04 do not.

So, yeah – I’m not blown away by TSG Hoffenheim, but I recognise how hard they work, and how effective they are in the final third. Truth be told, that should be enough to see them pick up three points in Gelsenkirchen today.

Verdict: TSG Hoffenheim to win at 4/5.

Metz vs OGC Nice

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I’ve opposed Metz a fair amount over the past couple of months, and rightly so too. They’ve had a lot of regulars out, some of which still are, including goal-scorer Niane. However, they have their strengths, Metz – it’s just that they’ve mostly faced teams that haven’t really allowed them to show such.

Blind luck was all that earned them a point in their derby against Racing Club Strasbourg as they were completely played off the park. However, they’ve adapted well since then, putting in a seriously good shift at La Mosson, claiming a deserved 2-0 win the process, before beating a superior Racing Club Lens 2-0 at home. They fought hard in Bretagne in their 1-0 defeat against Stade Rennais, and made Girondins de Bordeaux sweat a bit mid-week in their 0-0 draw too. Organised teams won’t struggle to keep Metz out; that’s the key to remember with them. They’re like a wilder, more zany version of Angers SCO, if that helps. However, teams that do not have the capacity to suppress them, or to deal with fast counters, are in a whole world of trouble the moment they step through the doors at the Symphorien – which is precisely the case tonight.

Vieira may have gone, but the poor displays have remained at an uncertain OGC Nice. I’m not sure I can lay the blame at new boss Ursea’s door either. I mean, is he going to keep the job or not? All they’ve said is that he’ll be in charge until the end of the season but with so many good managers in France out of work, and now Favre out of work too, it’s logical that there’d be uncertainty. Furthermore, Ursea has to deal with a substantial absentee list that contains his two best defenders, Dante and Bambu, and his best central midfielder Lees Melou, made all the more missed by Cyprien’s departure to Italy earlier in the season. Getting Danish poacher Dolberg has aided them in their recovery but they’re still nowhere near where they need to be, OGC Nice.

This is a very young team from the south coast. A young team requires discipline and direction, neither of which they have for obvious reasons, and two of the few players capable of being the elder statesman are both out tonight! Subsequently, they’re playing like the young, relatively unfamiliar team that they are, each out for themselves rather than the group. On paper, the likes of Gouiri, Dolberg, Lopes, and Reine-Adelaide are terrific attacking options, and I should really include Lotomba in that equation too. In reality, things are not going as they should, and this is not a team that was geared up to defend for long periods, hence the recent panic-loan of Saliba from Arsenal.

Now, Saliba is a very good centre-back, as he proved at AS Saint-Etienne. However, he’s not kicked a ball in six months, and he’s now expected to boss a back four despite not having anything alongside him? I can’t help but feel that OGC Nice have poured fuel on the fire with this acquisition, much as though I recognise they required a centre-back. Why not someone that has seen a few more campaigns, huh? Are they so cocky as to think that relegation is impossible? Are their memories that short?! They may have a nice cushion at the moment, OGC Nice, but they don’t have the mental strength for a relegation battle – but if they carry on playing like they are, then they’re in one.

Metz are used to being in the relegation battle. Indeed, some in France would surmise the club as saying that they are the relegation battle, and I couldn’t argue with that. Few teams have been relegated and promoted more than they have! What that’s afforded them is a very experienced, hard-working team that is seldom fazed by anything though, which is one hell of a boost in a relegation battle with a limited squad. See, what they lack in organisation and quality they make up for in tenacity and athleticism, meaning that they’re always a team to be mindful of in some capacity. They always impose themselves, in other words – the same cannot be said of OGC Nice, who may well end up getting bullied out of this match.

There’s a damn good reason that OGC Nice wins against Metz over the years are few at best, and it’s because dealing with such a motivated and fit team is very hard for a mentally fragile and inconsistent team like OGC Nice. I won’t deny that the visitors arrive in Metz with the superior team here, as the bookies have correctly identified with their assigning of the odds, but there’s nothing superior about their recent displays. They look like lambs to the slaughter, and Metz look hungry, motivated, and hard-working. They know the value of home points in a relegation battle. They’ve got experienced heads like Boye if things get rocky. They’re always going to be a threat, with or without the ball. This is only an easy team to beat if you’re organised, which OGC Nice aren’t. Therefore, I anticipate a long night in prospect for the southerners tonight.

For me, backing Metz to win with draw no bet cover at 83/100 is a really good value pick.

Verdict: Metz to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Stade Rennais vs Olympique Lyonnais

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

As expected, Olympique Lyonnais produced a good attacking display against Racing Club Lens but also a suspect defensive one. They’ve not yet progressed enough depth-wise to play without both defender Marcelo and defensive midfielder Guimaraes. Although Marcelo returns for tonight’s trip to Bretagne, I’m not convinced that this team can deal with such a mobile and dangerous Stade Rennais midfield without Guimaraes though. With all due respect to Racing Club Lens, the quality standard of this game should be even higher, and for that type of game, Olympique Lyonnais need their best starting eleven – which they don’t have.

Still, it’s been a week of good news for Olympique Lyonnais as a whole though. Marcelo is back, as I said above, and they now seem set to sell Dembele to West Ham United. I’m sure they’ll be gutted that they weren’t able to con other teams into paying well over the odds for a bang average striker but they’ll take what they can get now that they’ve found better players to call upon. On top of that, each win that comes restores the confidence in this squad, which has been corroded an awful lot over the years. I now see a mental strength returning to Olympique Lyonnais that again, hasn’t been seen for years. I really like what Rudi Garcia has done there.

Winning in north-west France tonight will be tough for the league leaders though. Not impossible, but tough. Paqueta will still lead the pressing along with Thiago Mendes, and they’re fast enough to capitalise upon any poor Stade Rennais moments. Given that their hosts only have one trustworthy central midfielder when it comes to using the ball sensibly and in a composed fashion, their high press should be effective enough here. Kadewere is lethal when leading that line too, as I said he would be when they signed him. I really do think that the Zimbabwean has the world at his feet. A bit of a late bloomer, I grant you, but he can do everything, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t end up playing his football in England at some stage. 

Whether results go their way or not, Olympique Lyonnais tend to leave their mark on games by scoring goals. I don’t see why tonight’s game would be an exception. True enough, Stade Rennais have tightened up at the back now that they’re not playing every three days, even with Rugani still injured, but Olympique Lyonnais are capable of asking questions of defenders that most Ligue 1 teams are not so I don’t really doubt it happening. Whether that’s enough to see them ultimately win the game or not, though, I just can’t say. It’s a coin toss.

See, not playing every three days has Stade Rennais fresher, and not depressed from being beaten by a superior team in the UEFA Champions League. Subsequently, they’ve strung wins together. Winning breeds confidence. Now they’re back to the excellent, mobile, and dangerous attacking force that they were last season. The true measure of how good this Stade Rennais side is to see who hasn’t been playing. They’ve done what they’ve done this season despite Maouassa, Lea Siliki, Martin, and their three new signings, Gomis, Rugani, and Dalbert. I think Stephan deserves a lot of credit for that. I mean, even recalling Niang to the squad has proven him right.

Stade Rennais are better at controlling games now Nzonzi is doing it, which is understandable – Camavinga can learn a lot from him. This enables the Stade Rennais attack to see more of the ball, and the more of it they see, the more dangerous they are. That’s the theory, and that’s the actuality too. However, they remain a team that are suspect in defence if the right buttons are pressed – that was the whole point of bringing Rugani in in the first place. Dalbert’s arrival at full-back is indicative of wanting attacking players rather than defensive players even in defence! Even Aguerd has three goals to his name! This team is supposed to attack, and they do – but they make a lot of mistakes at the back, and Olympique Lyonnais can hurt them there, particularly with captain da Silva out for the hosts tonight.

Cards on the table – if Guimaraes were to play, I would back the away win. I think Olympique Lyonnais would be good enough to stifle Stade Rennais in that scenario. However, as he’s not, I’m far more inclined to back over 2.5 goals in what should be a game prised open by Stade Rennais’ athleticism. 

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.