TFT Issue 3315!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

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Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

SL Benfica vs Tondela

KO: (UK time)

SL Benfica aren’t playing as badly as their form guide would have you believe but they are lacking in a bit of luck. Tonight’s hosts conceding goals is nothing uncommon but not scoring so many is a bit unusual for them. I think a home game versus Tondela could be just what the Doctor ordered for the Lisbon heavyweights. I recognise how good Tondela can be, especially when playing as underdogs, but we’re not yet at the stage of the season when they tend to show up. As long as they don’t play as confidently as they did when facing FC Porto away, Tondela should be ripe for plucking here – and few Portuguese teams are as good as SL Benfica at breaking opponents down at this level. Home win.

Verdict: SL Benfica to win at 1/5.

Featured game

Newcastle Jets vs Western Sydney Wanderers

KO: (UK time)

Are the Australian football commentators embarrassing enough to call this one the Carl Robinson derby? I think they might be, you know! Time will tell, of course, but it’s a new low for the A-League if that happens.

Still, I do think that the Welsh manager will be at the centre of deciding which way this game goes. He was only in charge of Newcastle Jets last season for eleven games or so but it quickly became apparent that he had the ear of his players. They played so well toward the end of the campaign, Newcastle Jets, that they almost made the play-offs – and given how bad they were earlier in the campaign, that was bordering on a miracle. It also encouraged players to want to stay at the club pre-season, and they also looked set to bring some good names in too.

However, pre-season Western Sydney Wanderers decided to upset the apple cart entirely, appointing Robinson as their new manager. This has caused a mass desertion from the Newcastle Jets squad in general, although some have followed Robinson to Western Sydney Wanderers (e.g. Ibini-Isei). Now Newcastle Jets fans have gone from having outside hopes of winning the A-League to wondering if they’ll even finish above their rivals, Central Coast Mariners, who have not only finished bottom for numerous years in a row, but actually beat them in their season opener. Things are not looking good for today’s hosts.

Against Central Coast Mariners, they did create some chances, Newcastle Jets, not that it did them any good because of their lack of quality in attack. The only good part of this team is the defence, and with Boogaard back to partner Topor-Stanley today, they’ll at least be able to defend better. That said, young Koutroumbis is out, and defensive midfielder Kantarovski is out too, so I doubt they’re in for an easy ride. You can usually bank on Newcastle Jets defending in a semi-decent way though. They work hard, they give a shit – all the ingredients are there to make them hard to score against, basically.

Their attack, though? I doubt I’ve ever seen it this ineffectual. They’re never going to struggle with committing enough men forward, Newcastle Jets, and like I said above, their work-rate is good. They’ve just not got anyone that can play that killer pass though, hence the last-minute panic buy of ex-Sydney CF wildcard Ali Abbas, who will not solve their problems by himself. I still think that Ugarkovic is a good controller, and I think that Thurgate has a lot of potential, but the rest? O’Donovan stopped being a good finisher a while back, although he is still good in the air. Yuel looked knackered after twenty minutes against Central Coast Mariners; they’ve somehow found somebody that lasts for less time than Ibini-Isei! Najjarine is quite tidy in midfield but there’s too much niceness and theory, and not enough flair and practicality. This team does not have a goal-scorer, any natural flair players, and they’ve got a new manager to get used to. Oh, and they were kicked out of the A-League earlier this week too (because of unpaid salaries), only rescued by another owner last minute. Things are not good at this club, basically.

Western Sydney Wanderers were not amazing against Macarthur FC but they did alright. I saw some encouraging early signs under Robinson’s stewardship, and I thought they created some good chances along the way. I do still have concerns about who will play at centre-back and who will be the designated target man if they need an alternative to Cox, but aside from that, this team is good to go. Importantly, new creator Troisi looked settled and effective on his debut, and the team will only improve when they get used to being where he plays his passes. 

It was nice to see Ibini-Isei get a good run out last time around too. As per usual, he only made it to just before the seventy minute mark, but he looked dangerous. I think that Western Sydney Wanderers have potentially got the fastest counterattack in all of Australia now that they’ve got Yeboah, Ibini-Isei, and Kamau, assuming the latter won’t be bizarrely deployed at right-back as he was under Babbel’s command. I rated the German rather highly, for what it’s worth, but to hear he’s now abandoned management in order to be a DJ was one of the stranger things I have come across. Those fellas supporting a clever striker like Cox will only produce goals in due course.

Indeed, all Western Sydney Wanderers really need is time together in order to be more effective. I don’t think that they can win the title without addressing at least one of the two problems areas I mentioned earlier in this preview, but I think that a top three finish is a realistic enough goal. They’ve got more than enough of what it takes whereas their hosts will be lucky to score more goals than games they play in. I don’t expect a walk in the park today; it’s far too early in the season for such. I expect a bit of a slog, to be honest, which is common in meetings between these two teams. JHowever, I perceive the visitors to be a lot better than their hosts, which is not reflected in the odds. Therefore, I’m happy to take my chances on the away win with draw no bet cover at good odds. 

Verdict: Western Sydney Wanderers to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Newcastle Jets – Kantarovski and Koutroumbis are absent. Boogaard returns.
Western Sydney Wanderers – Kamau returns.

English FA Cup:

Wolverhampton Wanderers – Cutrone and Gibbs-White return from loan spells and could feature. Dendoncker returns. Jonny and Jimenez are absent.
Crystal Palace – Schlupp, Cahill, and Dann are absent. Milivojevic is a doubt.
Aston Villa – Covid-19 outbreak at the club; no names given.
Liverpool – Keita, Jota, van Dijk, Gomez are absent.

German Bundesliga:

Borussia Moenchengladbach – K. Kurt, Lazaro, Olschowsky, Quizera, Reitz, Scally, and Thuram are absent. Plea and Bensebaini return.
Bayern Munich – Arp and Nianzou are absent. Gnabry is a doubt.

German Bundesliga 2:

SV Sandhausen – Linsmayer is absent.
Heidenheim – Mollo, Pat. Schmidt, and Schnatterer are absent.
Karlsruher SC – Carlson, Frode, Gueye, Hanek, and S. Jung are absent.
Greuther Furth – Barry, Berggreen, Mavraj, and Schaffan are absent.

Portuguese Liga 1:

Rio Ave – Junio is absent.
Portimonense – Lucas Fernandes is absent.
SL Benfica – Almeida, Ferreira, Jardel, Ramos, and Seferovic are absent. Gabriel is a doubt.
Tondela – Sousa is a doubt.
Famalicao – No absentees.
FC Porto – Saravia and Mbaye are absent. Marcano is a doubt.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Celta de Vigo – Aspas, Alvarez, Nolito, Tapia, and Vazquez are absent. Junca is a doubt.
Villarreal CF – Alcacer, Coquelin, Foyth, Iborra, and A. Moreno are absent. 

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Australian A-League:

Newcastle Jets vs Western Sydney Wanderers (6) 0-1

English FA Cup:

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Crystal Palace (5) 1-1
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (5) 2-1

German Bundesliga:

Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Bayern Munich (5) 2-2

German Bundesliga 2:

SV Sandhausen vs Heidenheim (5) 2-1
Karlsruher SC vs Greuther Furth (5) 1-1

Portuguese Liga 1:

Rio Ave vs Portimonense (6) 2-1
SL Benfica vs Tondela (7) 2-1
Famalicao vs FC Porto (6) over 2.5 goals

Spanish Primera Liga:

Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal CF (5) 2-2

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