TFT Issue 3321!

Stade Brestois vs Stade Rennais

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

Today’s early kick-off in north-west France sees Stade Brestois host Stade Rennais. The visitors have performed rather well since their European commitments came to a grinding halt, flourishing now that they actually get some rest days, and can string some wins together without being outplayed by superior teams every mid-week game. Stade Brestois have played well all season long though, and look set to trouble their rivals significantly today, just as they did in the reversal of this fixture.

It cannot be denied that Stade Rennais are the superior team here, but as they showed against Olympique Lyonnais last time out, they’ll still make mistakes that cost them, even when they’re playing well. I have no qualms whatsoever about trusting their attack, which continues to look extremely deadly. They’ve got a bit of everything in it, and a boatload of cohesion to boot. They’ll find their way past most Ligue 1 teams, Stade Rennais, if afforded the time and space to do so – and they’re not an easy team to press.

Their defence worries me though. It’s not as if boss Stephan hasn’t paid it any attention; it’s more a combination of wanting defenders that are good at both ends of the pitch, and also being somewhat unlucky with injuries (e.g. Rugani). Now captain da Silva, another key defender, is also out too. Suffice to say that I am even less convinced by the Stade Rennais defence than I usually am, and against such a confident and consistent team, I think they’ll find it rough going on the coast today.

I couldn’t really blame anyone for backing the away win though. As much as I admire the courage and tenacity of the home team, Stade Rennais really should be too good for them, especially if they intend to make a new and presumably much improved appearance in the UEFA Champions League next season. I can’t escape the lurking feeling that Stade Brestois are going to upset the apple cart here though. They’re a really close-knit group, and boss Dall’Oglio really doesn’t get enough credit for the job he’s done at the club. This team regularly performs far above its purported level, and does so with smiles on their faces. After seeing them claw back a great point against a far superior Olympique Lyonnais away from home, little more could surprise me with this team.

I believe that Dall’Oglio’s work there has been recognised by players, though. I mean, the career of Mounie and Cardona may have stalled somewhat, but they still had their pick of Ligue 1 clubs to go to, and yet both chose Stade Brestois, knowing the attacking style of the manager. Even Philippoteaux opted to join them at a time in his career where he didn’t really have to move. The impression I get is that players really want to play for Dall’Oglio in his entertaining attacking setup, and that makes things very harmonious in this camp, as well as the fact that nothing is ever expected of the minnows.

Subsequently, Stade Brestois have been able to operate at a very high level this season. Yes, their attacking is a lot better than their defending, but nothing ever seems to faze them. No matter how many goals they concede, or who it’s against, this team will keep attacking, and keep scoring. I’m not sure that a Rugani-less and da Silva-less Stade Rennais can cope with that for ninety minutes, whether the visitors win the game or not.

Therefore, backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 suits me just fine.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Heidenheim vs Darmstadt 98

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

My initial idea was to totally avoid this game. Heidenheim have performed above their level this season, and are due to ‘come down’ at some stage, and Darmstadt 98 have a really underrated team, and have arguably under-performed. To me, in a division where quality gaps are limited, that’s a no-go kind of zone.

However, the team news has seriously tipped the scale here. Darmstadt 98 are in a bit of a pickle. This season, they’ve opted to play more adventurously, recognising that they won’t often have a squad as good as this. They’re not in any kind of position to keep hold of Dursun, Palsson, or to sign players like Seydel – not that many players will be in his position to begin with, making it even less likely that Darmstadt 98 can pull off such a signing. Also, when else will they get the best out of Kempe like Anfang has this season? Even Berko is a good threat. So, yes, I understand why Darmstadt 98 want to attack more, and they’ve been very entertaining to watch for that reason.

In previous years though, they’ve been controllers, Darmstadt 98. Palsson is the one to coordinate such, and they’ve been very effective at it. I can’t say that they’re amazing defensively but they certainly did work very well as a unit, and that made them very annoying to actually beat. This season though, their attacking style has made it far easier to score against them. They’re scoring enough goals to win games but aren’t keeping their opponents out well enough. It’s a tough one to weigh up, really – they’re damned if they do, and damned if they don’t, hence their inconsistent form.

Unfortunately for the visitors, they’re not in a position to do either today. Star striker Dursun is out, injured, and so is Icelandic enforcer Palsson. On top of that, defenders Mai and Bader – both regulars this season – are also out for the visitors. If they get out of this game without conceding, it’ll be a miracle. Their attack still carries a certain threat, especially if Seydel remembers just how good he is. I don’t expect an easy game for Heidenheim for that reason. However, I think it’s fair to say that Darmstadt 98 are under-strength today, and they certainly don’t have the depth to cope with such absentees.

The real question here is whether Heidenheim can keep over-achieving or not today. I’d like to think that they can. They have good attitudes in this squad, as it’s been for a few years now, and they’ve performed really well at home this season, always doing just enough to oust teams, no matter what they’ve come up against. I’ve been really impressed at how well they’ve yet again replaced their departed star striker. A couple of years back, it was Glatzel that needed replacing, so in came Kleindienst. This time around, it was Kleindienst that had left, so they brought in Kuhlwetter. Each time they’ve done it, it’s worked too. Full credit to their scouting team for that because it’s not easy to replace your main goal-getter.

I also think that Geipl has done well since joining from Jahn Regensburg as a replacement for the departed Dorsch too. They’re a very well-ran club, Heidenheim – I’ll give them that. Not always the most entertaining of teams, and yet certainly not a defensive team either. They’re a bit like Eintracht Frankfurt in the division above in the sense that they’re quite good at everything without being brilliant at anything. They’re not the kind of team to underestimate though. I would not panic at seeing their defeat in Sandhausen last weekend, either. SV Sandhausen did seriously well in the transfer market pre-season; it’s only their consistency that has been missing. They’re a very good team on their day though.

At home, Heidenheim tend to be very good though. They control games well, they aren’t easy to rile, and they’ve got a good route to goal. They look well-balanced, Heidenheim, and although I do question how long they can maintain it for, I doubt conditions could favour them any more today than they currently do. Therefore, I’m quite prepared to trust in the home win at 23/20.

Verdict: Heidenheim to win at 23/20.

Internazionale vs Juventus

KO: 19:45 (UK time)

This game is a really big derby so cards are to be expected. However, it’s the first time in a long time that I can recall backing Internazionale to beat Juventus. Juventus have been better than them for a long time but this transitional period that they find themselves in has made their performances a touch too sketchy for my liking. Internazionale are far from perfect themselves, but they’re mentally stronger than Juventus right now, and that’s key in such a big game.

When I watch Juventus play nowadays, several things strike me. And no, I don’t blame Pirlo; I think appointing him was the right thing to do as part and parcel of being a modern, forward-thinking club. I think that they look really slow at passing in the final third, making it easier to defend against them. I think they’re relying way too much on Ronaldo, which is fraught with danger because he’s not infallible. He didn’t play particularly well against Sassuolo either, and it almost cost them, which shouldn’t be the case. I also think it’s been far too easy for teams to get chances against Juventus due to misunderstandings in defence. It’s not the same controlling, dominant Juventus team of the past, basically.

They’re still terrific goal-scorers with great match winners though, so I won’t just back anybody to beat them. They won 3-1 in Milan a couple of weeks back (against AC Milan) and beat Udinese 4-1 the week prior, neither of which they were amazing in but they still rattle home goals really well. That’s the danger with opposing Juventus. On another day, that handball against Udinese isn’t given, the visitors take the lead, and that game then doesn’t end 4-1. I’m not saying what they’re doing is lucky but let’s say that they’re relying on luck more than usual, if that makes sense.

Although I appreciate that they did rotate their squad for it, their mid-week draw against Genoa in the Coppa Italia is a classic example of what I’ve been saying. When do Juventus throw away two-goal leads at home against Genoa? Never – but they did. Alright, they did enough to win in extra-time but this is not the conventional Juventus that we’ve all come to know and depend upon over the years. Opposing them is still rather bold, I must confess, but I can’t help feeling that a good team should beat them whilst they’re playing as they are.

Internazionale’s problem is singular in variety; defending. They’re not doing a good job of it, which is weird because Conte teams do tend to defend well, as was evident last season. His approach is to have two squads of capable players, no matter what age, usually fusing both old and young players. He literally has a player for every situation. For a squad like that to become one that concedes silly goals, and usually does so in unnecessary circumstances, is very puzzling to me. 

Still, I recognise the work that Conte has done with this group mentally. They look incredibly assured, no matter what situation – well, at least their attack and midfield does! Their attack is better now than I’ve seen it in twenty years. Lukaku has just gotten better and better, both in goal-scoring and assisting. Martinez has learnt his trade well playing alongside him, and they’ve got such amazing support from midfielders and full-backs/wing-backs. Internazionale seldom leave games without scoring, and their capacity to always want to be on the front is testament to the work Conte has done with his squad’s mentalities, given that they were bottlers for years prior to his arrival.

In short, I really do like where Internazionale are at. They’re not fazed by falling behind or difficult fixtures. They’re capable of scoring two or three goals per encounter, and they do more than enough to manage such. They should have beaten AS Roma last time out too; they had more than enough chances to do it but it wasn’t their day in front of goal. I thought they dealt with AS Roma’s attack rather well but still managed to give a couple of goals away. They’ll need to be sharp if they’re to win this derby, Internazionale, but in general they are. For the first time in a long time, I have faith that they can best Juventus if the game is played as openly as I anticipate it will be.

Therefore, I’m on the home win at 7/5.

Verdict: Internazionale to win at 7/5.