TFT Issue 3327!

I warned you all that Marcelino would have an impact at Athletic, but even I didn’t think it’d be as quick as this. They’ve already beaten Real Madrid and Barcelona, winning the Super Cup in the process, and enter tonight’s game with a lot of confidence as a result.

It’s not even the wins that make me want to back Athletic tonight, although they do help build momentum. No, it’s their improved intelligence on the pitch that’s done it for me. This is a naturally hard-working team that is good on the ball but it’s not a team with any great goal-scorers any more – or even a recognised striker. Kodro, Moncillo, and Villalibre are all very similar strikers; well-build, industrious, but not particularly good finishers so this team hasn’t really threatened properly for a while – until now. Marcelino has not only improved their movement but also the number of aerial balls because they’ve got one of the biggest squads in the division. Subsequently, it’s the bagging of five goals in two games against Spain’s best teams that has convinced me that Athletic are ready to be backed once more. 

They laboured to a mid-week win over part-timers ibiza in the Copa del Rey, but considering that they rested the likes of Raul Garcia, Unai Simon, Inito Martinez, Ander Capa etc. I am not surprised by that. Even the likes of Williams and Yuri only made brief cameos in that game in anticipation of tonight’s tough encounter against Getafe, a team that they’ve not managed to beat since 2016. I don’t think their record was the reason for the Primera Liga prioritisation though – it’s because they both want to consolidate their place in the division, and push for European football next season. I mean, how else are they supposed to lure the likes of Oyarzabal and Barrenetxea from Real Sociedad without playing in Europe?

Truth be told, I feared for Athletic’s survival pre-Marcelino. They played the same way that year when only Aduriz’s goals kept them in the division, all of those years ago. Essentially, Athletic remained an industrious, physical, passionate team – but lacked a goal threat. They got away with it back then because Aduriz came into his own, but now there’s nobody that can do that. That’s why attacking midfielder Raul Garcia has been pushed forward into a makeshift target man role, or even Williams has been asked to lead the line before now, playing on the shoulder of the last man. 

What Athletic do have, however, is a very good wide game. Capa, Yuri, de Marcos – they love to bomb forward from full-back, and de Marcos was initially signed for the club as a winger. Williams, Muniain, and new signing Berenguer are very competent when it comes to good deliveries into the box, and I am sure that Inigo Cordoba will be with time, and Ibai Gomez already is, if he’s ever back in favour. It just needed that somebody to glue it all together properly, and with all due respect to inexperienced ex-boss Garitano, it wasn’t him. Now, wherever Marcelino has gone, he’s done the same thing – got more out of his players (work-rate and effectiveness), made them smarter, and made them good at both ends. If you can ignore his occasional rants to the press, he’s a terrific manager that Valencia have looked like idiots for sacking, as have all those clubs before them. Marcelino is a genius at this level, and he’s making Athletic that bit too smart to be overlooked for much longer.

Getafe are a hard side to beat, though. Bordalas is a terrific manager. I doubt there’s a better team in the world than Getafe when it comes to winning whilst seeing very little of the ball. It’s hard to explain what the capital club does, if you’ve not seen them before, because they’re not a Mourinho type team i.e. defensive all of the time. It’s just that Bordalas tries to make them amazing for short periods of the game, and stable for the rest. They’re very flexible, Getafe, and they don’t really have any obvious weaknesses when it comes to teams trying to get at them.

The only real problem I ever see with Getafe is that they haven’t been the best at breaking teams down this season. It really doesn’t suit them to play that way, to be fair, at least not on a consistent basis. For brief interludes away from home when under pressure, it suits them, but not in home games against the likes of Real Valladolid or Granada. Athletic away is not the kind of game that Getafe would typically enjoy either. They’re more than happy to get physical, the visitors, but then so are their hosts. Athletic’s style is not the same as most Spanish teams – it’s very Basque, if that makes sense, which basically equates to a brilliant work ethic but intelligently applied rather than leaving themselves open. 

Now, I can understand why Getafe haven’t lost this fixture for a while. I mean, Athletic have not been good ever since Bielsa left; they’ve just been quite annoying to break down. Getafe have been able to play as underdogs for a while, and defending against this team has not been challenging. However, doing it against a Marcelino team is different. Athletic look even more uncomfortable to deal with right now, and I’ve seen a bit too much of Getafe giving the ball away over the past couple of months, which makes me fear for the visitors tonight. 

I don’t think it’ll be pretty, nor easy. In fact, I think it’ll involve a lot of cards. However, I believe there’s value to be found in backing the home win at 13/10.