TFT Issue 333!
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Featured game
Koln vs Hertha HSC Berlin – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Bundesliga encounter between Koln and Hertha Berlin.
Quality-wise, you have to favour Koln here, especially at home. However, they rely heavily on Lukas Podolski, who has reportedly just agreed a move to Arsenal in the summer and it’ll be interesting to see what impact that has on this Koln side.
Without Podolski, Koln become very ordinary at home. They’re still capable of keeping sides out but they have very little in front of goal. Atypically, I’d expect Hertha to lose this game against Koln, with or without Podolski in the ranks of the hosts. However, they’re a lot better under Rehhagel and that makes a big difference, in my view. Rehhagel is the absolute master of locking up defensively and grinding out results. It’s not pretty, it’s not enjoyable, but it works. We saw that exceptionally well in their recent home game with Werder Bremen so why not again here?
Hertha haven’t got much in the way of quality but what they do have a lot of is tenacity and that makes a big difference here. Koln are generally hard to beat on their own turf because they work very hard but Hertha can and will match them on that front here. I anticipate this game as being the kind of game that will only be one by a piece of brilliance of someone and if forced to choose then I’d probably side with Koln. However, the 1×2 market holds no value for me here so I won’t be entering it.
What does interest me is taking under 2.5 goals, however. Hertha have more than enough momentum and organisation to shut up shop against their hosts and I think we’ll see a low-scoring game as a result. For me, taking under 2.5 goals at 4/5 is a steal whilst Rehhagel is in charge of any team.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional game
Mainz 05 vs Nurnberg – home win at evens.
Mainz 05 have showed glimpses in recent weeks of returning to the form that saw them become one of the most feared home sides in Germany last season. They’ve bagged eight goals in three home games, winning two of them. They’ve done well on the road lately whilst being arguably unfortunate to lose at Dortmund. Mainz are scoring goals and you can only win games by scoring goals. It’s hard for me to imagine Mainz continuing that trait without Schurrle in their ranks nowadays but they’re getting there thanks so some sporadically good attacking displays. Mainz are short on depth but they’re determined and they will frustrate sides because that’s what they’re very good at.
I think they’ll win this one today, too. Nurnberg are a bit of a tough cookie themselves but they don’t score goals away from home, hence them losing seven away games already this season. Credit to the visitors, mind you – they’re in a rich vein of form themselves, winning three consecutive Bundesliga games. However, Nurnberg have failed to score in eight away games this season and have lost seven with only newly-promoted Augsburg failing to capitalise on their ineffectual displays. The bottom line is that if Nurnberg don’t score then they tend to lose and given that I expect them to concede in this game, it seems more than reasonable to expect them to lose this game.
Mainz’s forwards must show up here for this bet to win. They have some threats, particularly in Szalai, but they have to convert their chances or the bet will be lost. Nurnberg could score here but I don’t fancy their chances – better sides than Nurnberg have failed to score here before now. For me, there’s value on the home win at evens with the above in mind.
Verdict: Mainz 05 to win at evens.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart – Zahra, Taseski, and Ibrahim are absent. Sarkies is a doubt.
Wellington Phoenix – Pantelis and Daniel are absent.
Sydney FC – Bridge is a doubt.
Melbourne Victory – Hernandez, Pondeljak, Leijer, and Brebner are absent. Kemp and Fabio are doubts.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – No absentees.
Chernomorets Burgas – Yordanov is a doubt. Terziev and Ualembo aer absent.
Vidma-Rakovski – Ignatov is absent.
Ludogorets – Jarabica and Dyakov are absent.
Svetkavitsa – Tauchol and Valev are absent. Mendy is a doubt.
Litex Lovech – Yanev is absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Banik Ostrava – Krbecek and Ferencik are absent. Vasenda is a doubt.
Ceske Budejovice – Brezinsky, Strasky, Ondracek, and Bakala are absent. Hudson is a doubt.
Slovacko – Kosut, Fujerik, and Ondrejka are absent.
Bohemians 1905 – New coach Weber. Nikl is absent.
Slovan Liberec – Krystan is absent. Karisik is a doubt.
Mlada Boleslav – Synek, Fabian, Opiela, Johana, and Rolko are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense – Reginiussen is absent. Henrik Andreasen is a doubt.
FC Nordsjaelland – Lawan, Granskov, Sise, and Backmann are absent. Mikkelsen returns.
English Championship:
Brighton & Hove Albion – Dicker, Painter, and Elphick are absent.
Portsmouth – Benjani and Kanu are absent.
Coventry City – Wood and Hreidarsson are absent.
Birmingham City – Carr and Caldwell are absent.
Derby County – Ward is absent.
Watford – Bennett, Jenkins, Massey, and McGinn are absent.
Burnley – Stanislas is a doubt.
Crystal Palace – Wright is absent. Clyne is a doubt.
Hull City – No absentees.
Ipswich Town – Bullard is absent.
Nottingham Forest – Tudgay, Anderson, and Elokobi are doubts.
Millwall – Mkandawire, Racon, Abdou, and Lowry are absent.
Bristol City – Elliott, Clarkson, Skuse, and Wilson are absent.
Cardiff City – McPhail and Gestede are absent.
Middlesbrough – Robson, Emnes, Thomson, Bailey, and McDonald are doubts.
Leeds United – Vayrynen, Kisnorbo, Somma, Bruce, and Bromby are absent.
Peterborough United – No absentees.
Blackpool – Cathcart is a doubt.
Southampton – Seaborne is absent. Fox is a doubt.
Barnsley – Edwards is absent.
Reading – Griffin and Connolly are absent.
Leicester City – Konchesky is absent.
West Ham United – Reid is a doubt.
Doncaster Rovers – Stock, Friend, and Spurr are absent.
Greek Super League:
Atromitos – No absentees.
Doxa Dramas – Tripotseris and Aravidis are absent.
OFI Crete – No absentees.
Panionios – Aulonitis, Kutsi, Omo, Siderakis, Buzas, Kolovos, and Stamatis are absent.
PAOK Salonika – Malezas, Araujo, Eto, Ivic, Snaoucher, and Katsikas are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Budapest Honved – No absentees.
Zalagerszegi TE – No absentees.
Szombathelyi Haladas – Bence is absent.
Vasas Budapest – Venczel, Gorgenyi, Polenyi, and Jusuf are absent.
Paksi SE – No absentees.
Ujpest – Rajczi, Pollak, Liptak, Szokol, and Vermes are absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Tibi and Badash are absent. Njubvo returns. Low ticket prices today to attract supporters.
Hapoel Acre – Capiloto is absent.
Hapoel Rishon Lezion – Cohen, Halevi, Mesika, and Obasnykov are absent.
MS Ashdod – Biton, Lavi, El-Hamid are absent. Kahlon returns.
Bnei Sakhnin – Elkayam is absent. Hazurov and Halaula return.
Hapoel Petah Tikva – Zarfati and Cohen are absent.
Ironi Ramat Hasharon – Lavi and Suissa are absent. Back in their home stadium now.
Maccabi Netanya – Kalibat is absent.
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Abu-Zaid is absent.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Soares is absent.
Maccabi Petah Tikva – Damari, Sansoni, and Ma’abi are absent. Strauber is a doubt.
Beitar Jerusalem – Moyal is absent.
Italian Serie A:
Palermo – Silvestre is absent. Bacinovic and Migliaccio are doubts.
AS Roma – Burdisso, Juan, Pjanic, Osvaldo, Stekelenburg, and Cassetti are absent. Taddei and Totti are doubts.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atlantas – Played in Gargzdai. Big financial problems.
Siauliai – No absentees.
Kruoja Pakruojis – Played in Panevezys.
Tauras Taurage – No news.
Banga Gargzdai – No news.
Zalgiris Vilnius – No news.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Groningen – van Loo, Kappelhof, Kwakman, van de Laak, Bacuna, Burnet, and Enevoldsen are absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Propper, Hofs, and Vink are absent.
Heracles Almelo – Vejinovic is absent.
ADO Den Haag – Ammi, van Duinen, and Leeuwin are absent.
Heerenveen – Elm, Breuer, and Janmaat are absent.
Excelsior Rotterdam – Fileccia, Smith, de Graaf, Nuytinck, Mattheij, de Vries, and Eekman are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Gornik Zabrze – Danch is a doubt. Witkowski replaces Slawik.
Lechia Gdansk – Vucko, Malkowski, and Deleu are absent. Traore and Kozans return.
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – Nather is absent.
Legia Warsaw – Hubnik is a doubt.
Zaglebie Lubin – Rymaniak and Abwo return.
Ruch Chorzow – Janoszka and Malinowski are doubts.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Braga – Ewerton, Alan, Baiano, Paulo Vinicus, and Luis Alberto are absent. Lopes returns.
Uniao de Leiria – Patrick, Robinho, Brigido are absent. Lots of internal problems.
Porto – Mangala, Iturbe, Varela, and Danilo are absent.
Academica de Coimbra – Diogo Gomes, Luis, Orlando, Real, Abdoulaye, Cabral, and Eder are absent.
Russian Premier League:
FK Krasnodar – Mikheev, Erokhin, and Markov are absent.
Terek Grozny – Ferreira, Adilson, Legear, Katzaev, and Mguni are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Doran, Hayes, Hogg, and A.Shinnie are absent.
Kilmarnock – Heffernan, van Turnhout, Kennedy, O’Leary, Pascali, and Shiels are absent.
Serbian Super Liga:
Partizan Belgrade – Smiljanic replaces Kamara.
Sevojno – Bozovic is absent.
Javor Ivanjica – Silva and Lukivic are absent.
Red Star Belgrade – No absentees.
Vojvodina Novi Sad – Ilic has left. Moreira may feature.
Metalac GM – No news.
Spartak Subotica – Covic is absent.
Rad Belgrade – Perovic is absent.
Borac Cacak – Atanckovic and Damjanovic are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Malaga – Baptista, Sanchez, Portillo, Juanma, Ruben, and Maresca are absent. Buonanotte returns.
Levante – Iborra and Juanfran are absent. Botelho returns.
Real Sociedad – Cadamuro and Carlos Martinez are absent. Zurutuza and Illarramendi return.
Real Zaragoza – Paredes and Postiga are absent. Lafita returns.
Sporting Gijon – Eguren and Damian are absent. Colunga and Lora return.
Sevilla CF – Medel, Kanoute, and Negredo are absent. Perotti returns.
Real Betis Balompie – Pereira is absent. Paulao returns.
Real Madrid – Carvalho, Benzema, di Maria, Altintop, and Coentrao are absent. Pepe returns.
Turkish Super Lig:
Galatasaray – Yekta Kurtulus is absent.
Genclerbirligi – Curri is absent.
Istanbul BB – Marcus Vinicus and Ekrem are absent.
Kayserispor – Cangele, Engin, and James Troisi are absent.
Ukrainian Premier League:
Illichivets Mariupol – No news.
Shakhtar Donetsk – Chygrynskyi is absent. Shevchuk returns.
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk – Dennis and Inkoom are absent.
Vorskla Poltava – Dolgan returns.
Volyn Lutsk – No news.
Chernomorets Odessa –