TFT Issue 337!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Legia Warsaw vs Polonia Warsaw – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Ekstraklasa derby between Legia Warsaw and Polonia Warsaw. Although arguably not as big a derby as Legia Warsaw vs Wisla Krakow, this game is still a derby (obviously!) and thus caution must be applied.
However, the days of this being a close game are gone, in my view. Over the past couple of seasons, Polonia had money pumped into them by their nutcase chairman and they bought some terrific players, too. However, their chairman just wanted to run the team, basically, so the managerial post has become a bit of a revolving door, really. Ironically enough, rumour has it that Zielinski will lose his job unless Polonia play well here so no pressure, eh?!
At the start of the season, I thought the Ekstraklasa title would be back with Wisla at the end of this season. Legia are always too inconsistent despite boasting many quality players and Wisla had gelled very well. However, the insane sacking of Maaskant means that I swing the pendulum of favour back in the direction of Legia because Wisla are not playing well under their new manager(s).
Legia know it, too. They’ve turned it on since returning from the winter break, even giving Sporting Clube de Lisboa a rough ride in the UEFA Europa League. Legia haven’t conceded for four consecutive games in all competitions now, winning all four games and thus bring a lot of momentum into this game, even if the Polish FA are threatening to strip them of their Cup win against Gryf Wejherowo due to fielding an ineligible player. Legia are a very efficient side; that’s how they do so well, really. They don’t play with the same flair as Wisla, in my view, but they play with more efficiency. I’d always maintain that whilst Vrdoljak is playing in the middle of the park, this Legia side has a good chance of beating anyone in Poland and rivals Polonia Warsaw are no exception, especially not whilst Serbian duo Ljuboja and Radovic are playing so well!
Polonia Warsaw lost a lot of good players last season and haven’t really replaced them. Manager-wise – their latest “capture” is Zielinski, who steered Lech Poznan to success a couple of years ago. He’s been around the Ekstraklasa quite a bit since then but hasn’t been given the chance to guide any club to success due to impatience. He has a good squad here, Zielinski, but not the great squad that boasted Smolarek, for example. Additionally, the under-pressure manager has big absentee issues ahead of this derby. Who is out for them? Essential playmaker Bruno, for whom they have no natural replacement. Czech striker Sultes is out, as is midfield regular Tralka. Attacking midfielder Jez is listed as being in the squad but if he plays here then it’s through sheer desperation as he’s literally not kicked a ball for two weeks, hence me listing him as “absent” below. Those are some big blows for Polonia and given their recent defensive misdemeanors, the only way I can see them getting a result off their more illustrious local rivals is via some Albanian magic from Cani.
For me, there’s value on the Legia Warsaw win at 4/5. I’d not go shorter than that, though – this remains a derby, after all.
Verdict: Legia Warsaw to win at 4/5.
Additional game
Vitesse Arnhem vs Heracles Almelo – home win at evens.
You guys know me by now! I love Heracles and I’d like to back them in games like these but in all honesty, Vitesse are better than they are and evens on Vitesse winning this game are a bargain, irrespective of whether they win or not.
Their form took a dive lately but they’ve recovered following back-to-back wins against a weak De Graafschap and a hit-and-miss Groningen side. Still, the Euroborg is no easy away game for anyone so a 1-3 win at Groningen is always a morale booster for any side. PSV would have given their right arms for a 1-3 win there on their last trip to Groningen. However, they have to make do with their crushing 3-0 loss instead!
Vitesse are not a particularly flambuoyant team, although they do have the individual quality for that to show through. They’re an efficient side and it’s no surprise, really. Van der Brom’s ADO Den Haag side was regimented very well and I’d expect nothing less from this Vitesse side, young though it unquestionably is. This side will go places, given time, I am quite sure. Van der Brom is a good manager and Vitesse’s home form reflects that. Vitesse are building a success model built on Twente Enschede’s recent Eredivisie successes by building from the back and that makes the most sense, I think. Every side in the Eredivisie can score goals but few of them can defend; far too few, in all honesty.
Helpfully, Vitesse are virtually at full-strength here and with the players they have at their disposal, they should have more than enough in the tank to dominate the game and win it unconvincingly, as per usual.
Heracles are a much more “flair” side than Vitesse but lack Vitesse’s discipline at the back. Heracles never do well on natural turf and they rarely travel well as a result. A goal is never far away from Heracles whilst Darl Douglas partols the flank. They have a lot of energy and pace in midfield and attack, Heracles, hence their threat. However, when put under pressure, their average defence crumbles and they tend to fail to recover, and that’s pretty much what I expect here.
From a footballing perspective, I’d love to see the pleasing Heracles Almelo get an unexpected result at the GelreDome. From a realistic perspective, they’re going to lose to a better-organised side than themselves that frankly boasts better players, not least the talented Wilfried Bony leading the line. For me, there’s value on Vitesse winning this game at evens.
Verdict: Vitesse Arnhem to win at evens.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory – Brebner and Leijer are absent. Hernandez and Kemp return.
Wellington Phoenix – Daniel, Downey, and Pantelis are absent.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Sofia – Mladenov and Ivanov are doubts.
Vidma-Rakovski – Ignatov is a doubt.
German Bundesliga:
Hoffenheim – Jaissle, Ibertsberger, and Lakic are absent.
VfB Stuttgart – Bah, Traore, Celozzi, Okazaki, Tasci, and Audel are absent.
Irish Premier League:
Drogheda United – No absentees.
Drgoheda – Shanahan is absent. Shields and Foran are doubts.
UCD – Corry, Burke, Belhout, Boyle, Russell, and Langtry are absent.
Bray Wanderers – Houston, O’Connor, and Tresson are absent.
St.Patrick’s Athletic – Price and Fagan are absent.
Monaghan United – McDonagh, Collins, Reynor, O’Connor, and Maher are absent.
Cork City – Mulcahy, Horgan, Murray, Healy, and Duggan are absent.
Shamrock Rovers – Kilduff, Winn, McCormack are absent. McCabe is a doubt.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Vitesse Arnhem – Vink and Propper are absent.
Heracles Almelo – Vijanovic and Ter Horst are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Zaglebie Lubin – Isailovic is absent.
Widzew Lodz – Ben Radhia, Zigajevs, and Bieniuk are absent.
Legia Warsaw – No absentees.
Polonia Warsaw – Bruno, Sultes, Jez, Tralka, and Baszczynski are absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional de Madeira – Keita, Juliano, and Marcio Madeira return. Todorovic, Claudemir, and Oliver are absent.
Porto – Mangala and Iturbe return. Mikel debutises. Hulk, Djalma, and Fernando are absent.
SL Benfica – Garay, Matic, Maxi Pereira, and Emerson are absent.
Beira-Mar – Serginho, Cintra, Sitta, Nuno Coelho, and Moreira are absent. Lopes is a doubt.
Romanian Liga:
Mioveni – Miulescu, Ad.Iordache, and Olteanu are absent. Naidin is a doubt.
Targu Mures – Vasilache, D.Matei, and Topic are absent.
Concordia Chiajna – Muzac is absent.
Rapid Bucharest – Burca, Alexa are absent. Pancu, Deac, and Bozovic are doubts.
Russian Premier League:
Dinamo Moscow – Shunin is absent.
Zenit St.Petersburg – Bystrov, Kerzhakov, and Anyukov are absent. Faizulin, Shirokov, and Hubocan are doubts.
Turkish Super Lig:
Genclerbirligi – Cem Can, Emre, Curri, and Azofeifa are absent.
Trabzonspor – Vittek, Glowacki, and Volkan are absent.