TFT Issue 3395!

Genclerbirligi vs BB Erzurumspor 

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

I might be wrong, but I don’t believe I’ve backed Genclerbirligi this season – well, at least not to do anything particularly good, and I stand by that. They’ve had an atrocious campaign, and have played some atrocious football. They deserve to be in the relegation battle they’re unquestionably in the middle of.

However, of late they’ve really improved, the capital club. They delivered a superb display against Alanyaspor, for example, which was probably their best display of the Super Lig campaign thus far. Before that, they beat Kasimpasa, and I thought they were better in both games than they were in Istanbul against Fenerbahce in a game that they also won. Three wins on the spin has suddenly ignited the confidence levels in the Genclerbirligi camp, and the desire to stay up has returned. Forget the managerial ‘corruption’ behind the scenes, if you will; this team does know how to avoid the drop, and it’s by working together.

I also think it’s incredibly poignant that this run of theirs has coincided with the return from injury of Brazilian defender Diego Angelo and Romanian poacher Stancu, both of which know this level inside out by now. They both bring composure at both ends of the pitch, and calm those around them in intense moments. In other words, they’re the perfect players to have back at the business end of a season, no matter what condition they’re actually in. I still maintain that Stancu is their best finisher by far, so I’m sure there’s an important role for him to play in the current campaign.

Everything feels so very positive at Genclerbirligi right now, and I love to see it. Our resident Turkish representative has all but converted me into a Genclerbirligi fan so to see them do well is poetry in motion for me! Whether they’ll beat the drop or not remains to be seen, but for the present at least, they should be taken very seriously. That’s why them being priced as underdogs at home against BB Erzurumspor today was so surprising to me, and based on the odds movement, I’m not the only one with that opinion.

I also think it’s helpful that the visitors have dropped off a bit over the past month or so, which I guess was inevitable after a blockbuster of a start to life in the Super Lig. Now they find themselves without a win in seven matches, and it’s not like all of those games have been hard, you know? Last time out they lost at home against Konyaspor, which really does take some serious effort to occur! The only way they’ve stayed in games is via scoring goals, and it’s still not been enough to win them games. Why should that change today?

With star Lithuanian attacker Novikovas amongst their absentees, who is chiefly responsible for their creativity, it’s getting harder and harder for me to make a case for the visitors in Ankara. I’m certainly not forgetting about the artist that is Chahechouhe, who is easily one of the most underrated players to ever play at this level in my book, but those around him are just too inconsistent when Novikovas is out. Donald and Obertan are really capable dribblers, for example, but only when it suits them. Their forwards are good too but need support; Gomes won’t score without service, and El-Kabir is sketchy at best nowadays.

Without a fully functioning attack, BB Erzurumspor are sitting ducks. The problem they now have is that they, like Genclerbirligi, find themselves in the thick of a relegation battle except that today’s visitors are not embracing it like their hosts are. They made all the right noises in the transfer market, signing really good, experienced Super Lig match-winners. However, the reality of their situation is that nothing has really gelled; everything good that happens is as an individual rather than a collective. A team like that is not going to do well in a relegation battle so they need to buck their ideas up.

This game is incredibly important for both teams but it suits Genclerbirligi far more than their opponents for reasons mentioned above, which are predominantly centred around timing. I still can’t quite accept why the home team are underdogs here, based on how they’ve performed lately, and with generous odds available on them to win with draw no bet, this tip was one I almost felt compelled to give today.

Verdict: Genclerbirligi to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Hajduk Split vs Slaven Koprivnica

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Slaven are a team that traditionally struggles away from home, and Poljud is a nightmare venue to play at. They’ve a remarkably good campaign, Slaven, as they’ve yet again come back from the dead against all odds. However, their better displays were at the start of the campaign; in 2021, they’ve found life that bit harder.

It’s absentees that have done it. It goes without saying that Slaven do not have depth. Therefore, when you’ve got players like Milnar Paracki, Goda, and Bacelic-Grgic out, it’s not surprising that they’ve been on the receiving end of some unfavourable results, especially because of the latter’s absence, who has been superb this season. For what it’s worth, I don’t believe them to be in any real danger in the Prva Liga but they do need to be careful as it’s getting mighty competitive beneath them in the table.

With or without their best eleven, Slaven have played some beautiful football this season; that cannot be denied. They’ve played without fear, and have generally excelled against teams that have attacked them, constantly countering and using big Krstanovic to bully centre-backs in the process. They’ve scored a lot of goals playing that way. Naturally, they’ve conceded a lot with such a gutsy approach, especially as at least 50% of the teams in this division are better than they are, but they’ve enjoyed themselves and been awkward to handle. They’ll test Hajduk here, I’m sure.

Still, if Hajduk are as professional tonight as they were in the capital at the weekend, they’ll win this game easily enough. Hajduk being a good team is nothing new; it’s just getting everything aligned that is problematic for them, and has been for some years now. It’s always the same sorry cycle; new owner, new manager, great improvement, good names arrive and then boom! The cycle begins all over again with a new manager and a new style. It’s frustrating, more than anything, as this is a time when Hajduk should be looking to seriously press on bitter rivals Dinamo Zagreb, given the bad news they’ve had behind the scenes lately, which is likely to have serious ramifications in one way or another. Instead, Hajduk just keep moving the goalposts.

Still, their latest new manager has settled in well, his team looks professional and motivated, especially now they’ve got attackers that are prepared to defend instead of just lurking near the halfway line, waiting for the ball to come back to them. It feels like more of a team than before, despite their absentees, and Hajduk playing as a unit is easily one of the top three teams in Croatia for my money. As ever, they’ve got brilliant kids coming through, they’ve got good forwards, and they’ve got players good enough to carry them (e.g. Caktas) where required. It’s not a perfect team, but this kind of game should be perfect for them, given the space they’ll be given.

Therefore, I’m on the -1 Asian Handicap for Hajduk.

Verdict: Hajduk Split to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.

Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I may not be blown away by Bayern in 2021, but they’ve still won most games. They’re natural winners; that’s what they bring to the table. They were missing boatloads of players at weekend and yet still won in Leipzig too. Being without players just seems to focus them more, you know? Mentally, this is a very tough team. There are some areas that I think need improvement but everything else is very much there.

The above is why Lewandowski’s absence tonight doesn’t bother me. I mean, aside from the fact that Choupo-Moting would love to get one over on his old club, I just think that Bayern function too well as a unit to fall apart just because they’re without one particularly good player. They’ve got a world-class squad, Bayern, laden with experience and composure. Although I can pick a couple of holes in it, there’s no doubting that this is one of the best teams in the world right now, which makes it somewhat easier to back them.

You know what’s funny about this selection, though? I feel more comfortable backing Bayern to win at home against PSG than I would if they were hosting SC Freiburg, for example. Freiburg are fearless. Naive sometimes, yes, but fearless – and they play like that, committing men forward regularly, taking on opponents, and constantly asking questions of their opponents. Bayern dislike defending against that, just like most teams, but Bayern are actually quite bad at that. PSG are incredibly lazy and adopt a very cautious sideways style which rarely troubles teams in Ligue 1, never mind the reigning UEFA Champions League champions!

About once every two months, PSG deliver a display which reminds folk that they do actually have world-class players, and that performance came in the first-half of their win against Lyon recently so I’m not expecting another one any time soon. The fact that PSG have brilliant individuals is academic because, as a unit, they’re seriously poor. Honestly, just watch them in any Ligue 1 game, and watch how they struggle to ask questions of opponents, generally just waiting for one of their individuals to do something magical or an opponent to make a mistake, which usually decides their games. 

My old man actually said to me that he thought Pochettino would change things at PSG but I laughed. I like Pochettino; he’s an excellent manager. There’s nobody in the world that can manage this group of egos though. There’s no reason to believe that Pochettino can succeed where Emery, Blanc, Ancelotti, and Tuchel all failed – and they’re all really good managers. At some point, the PSG owners might just clue into the fact that it’s not the manager that is the problem, but moreso the players. Instead, they’re busy giving Neymar a new contract – why?! What has he done over the past two years that warrants another ludicrously lucrative contract? He was electric as a youngster, Neymar, but he’s regressed horribly as he’s aged. The petulant red card against Lille OSC at weekend tells you everything about him nowadays – sulks when his cheating doesn’t get a free-kick, can’t take what he gives, and gets sent off. He can’t beat a man, doesn’t seem to want to do anything unexpected, and even looks a lot less confident in front of goal. I just don’t know what he does.

By no means is Neymar the only culprit, mind you. This dressing room is toxic; it kills players. Verratti looked to all the world like he’d be the next Pirlo and instead, he’s better-known for mouthing off and picking up cards. The talent is still there but so what? He seldom shows it. Until PSG force players out of the door that do not care, they’re going to continue contaminating the current squad. You know what the worst part is though? It’s the impact they have on players like Mbappe, who has lost some of his edge this season because of those around him. He sees them not giving a fuck, and wonders why he should. The only ones who do actually run hard, press, and try to make things happen are the kids they play (e.g. Bakker) but there aren’t enough of them, and they’re seldom on the pitch for long enough.

I’ll tell you something else, too. PSG have a brilliant academy; everybody tries to poach their players. They seldom give them the chances they deserve though, as I intimated above. I see Nkunku playing at RB Leipzig; why is he there instead of at PSG, where he could do an amazing job? I see the young lad that Bayern have just poached from them (Kouassi), and I see that no less than four PSG academy graduates were in the Lille team that beat them in Paris at weekend. Is anyone else seeing a problem here? Until the owners realise the problem is the players they have, there’s no solution in sight, and PSG will simply continue to grind out these boring, cautious, and ultimately ineffectual displays, subjecting the rest of us to frustrating interviews with pundits who gingerly sidestep the big issues at this club, pretending it’s something else every time they fail to progress in this competition.

My question is this; why should Bayern, even with Lewandowski out, fail to beat such a team? Unless Neymar isn’t playing, PSG don’t have a counterattack. PSG do not work hard enough defensively with tracking full-backs, they don’t press teams, and they don’t ask inconvenient questions. Honestly, this game is more likely to be a training match for Bayern. Unless PSG decide to randomly show up, I can see Bayern dominating and winning this game comfortably tonight, hence the tip. That’s especially true as Verratti is amongst the absentees. 

Verdict: Bayern Munich to win at 9/10.