TFT Issue 34!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
A quick notice before scanning today’s members post. Please don’t mention the featured game on the main page of the site where possible. This tip is designed for those of you generous enough to support the site and I don’t think it’s fair to give that tip out and then possibly risk nearly 7000 people backing it and the odds shooting down before other people have had the chance to see this tip. If you insist on posting your bets on the main page then please refer to the game in question as “TFT Issue 34” game or something of that nature. Thanks for your understanding :)
In-Play Bet?
Keep an eye on the Tallinn derby in Estonia today, guys. I was hoping we’d have outmuscled the bookies knowledge-wise but they’re regrettably aware of the situation in Estonia, unusually. If you think Flora at 2/5 are short – well, they’re not, unfortunately. Levadia have big financial issues and lost a lot of very good players – Eino Puri, Lepimets, Voskoboinikov, Neemelo, Ratnikov, Subotin, Felipe Nunes, Dmitrijev, and Ivanov, to be precise. Levadia are half the team that they were last year with most of their midfield and attack gone although their defence is still quite strong with Morozov remaining. Flora had a couple of losses too – Masitsev, Kashmir, and Konsa – but still have the strongest side in Estonia by a long way.
It’s up to you if you get involved here but Flora have a very good chance of winning this tense derby. The odds are about right but you can wait for better odds in-play if you want or perhaps try your hand at the -1.5 goal handicap, although I’ve not seen any prices for it anywhere, unfortunately.
Oh, and by the way – this Super Cup Final – it’s being played at Flora’s home ground, not a neutral venue ;) Happy hunting, guys!
Featured game
Today’s featured game is the Segunda Liga clash in Spain between Elche and Numancia. Both teams have had somewhat bizarre form of late but I think this game should be a little more predictable.
I like Elche and their difficulty to be beaten a lot but they’re not a goalscoring side, simply put. Their goals stem from star striker Linares and nobody else – the rest only contribute sporadically and Elche as such miss Linares a lot when he’s absent. He’s actually bagged over a third of Elche’s goals this season so his absence tonight is very welcome to me, as I favour Numancia here. They missed a lot of players during their 2-0 defeat at Real Valladolid last match thanks to an explosive game with Barcelona which saw two of their players sent off. Linares is the only one of those players still serving a suspension for this game tonight.
Elche are hard to beat at home but that’s because they defend well, not because they attack well. Earlier in the season, they conceded goals on a random basis but heavily so when they did. However, Elche have conceded in four out of their last five games on their own turf and with the above pieces of information in mind, it’s no surprise at all to note that they’ve only won one of those games, losing twice along the way. They’ve had some hard games, admittedly, but they’ve lost games at home through conceding too many goals ala defeats at home against Celta de Vigo (1-3) and Cartagena (1-2). Exactly half of Elche’s goals conceded at home this season have been during their last five home games so I think it’s fair to observe a certain tiredness or perhaps even a demoralised state of mind as they enter this game, especially without their star striker, so I’m all up for opposing Elche here.
Numancia enter this game on the back of a baffling but entertaining 4-6 loss against Barcelona II in which both sides threw caution to the wind and created a new definition of the word “samba”! In Soria, Numancia are very much a goalscoring side but on the road they’ve been a bit stagnant, unfortunately, something which I hope changes tonight. Numancia aren’t the most secure side defensively – far from it, in fact – but they do present a goal threat which will hopefully be present against a leaky Elche defence tonight. They still miss full-back Flano, holding midfielder Nagore, attacking midfielder Garmendia, and target man Balde but these are not new absences per se so Numancia should still be ok. It’s essential that they make the most of Mabwati’s presence in midfield to make things happen and that Barkero’s left foot is left to do its magic because if so, Numancia can win this game. It’s a shame Balde has been out for so long after such a promising start but they’ll have to make do with Velez and Del Pino in attack for now, who are average strikers. Numancia’s midfield is absolutely integral to them winning this game and if they win the battle there, then they won’t lose this game as Elche lack the firepower to trouble Numancia’s dubious defence.
There’s risk in this game as Numancia play games as they see fit, regrettably. If they turn up then they’ll win this game, in my view – they’re a better side than Elche. However, Elche can be a pain to overcome defensively so this should be an interesting game. My take on this game is that Elche won’t score without Linares, however, and if they do then it shouldn’t be more than once. I don’t see Numancia failing to score in this game given Elche’s defensive ineptitude and lack of confidence in recent times either, as long as their midfield shows up, so I think the minimum result here for Numancia will be a draw. Backing them to win the game with draw no bet cover at 11/8 really appeals to me here, especially as Numancia haven’t lost at Elche for three consecutive visits now, winning twice along the way.
Team news – Elche miss Linares whereas Numancia miss Flano, Nagore, Garmendia, and Balde.
Verdict: Numancia to win with draw no bet at 11/8.