TFT Issue 3419!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

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Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Santos vs The Strongest 

KO: (UK time)

Like I said in my preview of Boca Juniors vs Santos last week, I am not a fan of where Santos are at right now. However, what I would say is that they’re always capable of carving out positive results at home, and doing so against a pretty weak The Strongest side that have to get used to the severe change in altitude should not be all that problematic for the Brazilians. Well, Santos do have a penchant for making life hard for themselves, I suppose, but I still can’t see beyond a home win here. No handicaps though.

Verdict: Santos to win at 1/5.

Featured game

Holstein Kiel vs SV Sandhausen

KO: (UK time)

As I said in my preview of Holstein Kiel’s DFB Pokal match against Bv09 Borussia Dortmund at the weekend, I am not happy with the northerners at the moment. They’ve been seriously poor since returning from their Covid-19 break, and their heavy defeat was yet another nail in their coffin lid. I daresay most folks wouldn’t bat an eyelid at such a one-sided scoreline but anyone that watches both of those teams regularly knows what it came about because Kiel didn’t show up – and Dortmund aren’t going to overlook such generosity!

The break hasn’t done promotion hopefuls Kiel any favours whatsoever. They’re playing like they’re half asleep at the moment. I mean, I can appreciate that Nurnberg are playing better now that they’re not fearing relegation but to be horribly outplayed by them is not good enough, at least not for a team like Kiel. Honestly, Nurnberg had them hemmed in, even when 1-0 up, smelling blood. They rattled the woodwork twice in the early exchanges of the second-half, and should have been two or three up by the time Kiel’s substitutions managed to turn the tide enough for an equaliser to be scored.

I know Kiel need to win tonight, but they are showing no signs of doing such, and this is their fourth game in ten days, which is way too much for any Bundesliga 2 team. Morale is low, effectiveness isn’t there, and belief is waning. It’s a shame, because I’d love to see a team with Kiel’s enthusiasm and drive in the Bundesliga, but unless things take a very swift detour, I can see them failing tonight. They may have a lot of games in hand on the teams around them, but they’re being forced to play them all in a short space of time, and without momentum they’re not going to win enough to go up.

SV Sandhausen are very much in survival mode right now too, which will make Kiel’s task even harder tonight. The visitors have already taken points off Hamburger SV and Hannover 96 lately, and came bloody close to taking some off Greuther Furth too. I’d like to remind you all that, despite their poor campaign, SV Sandhausen actually have a pretty good squad. All they needed was a bit of momentum to stave off the threat of relegation, and they have that. They’ve got some horrible away games remaining this season but with the way they’re playing, nothing looks beyond them.

The positives are endless for SV Sandhausen right now. For example, Keita-Ruel is back amongst the goals, new boss Kleppinger has found a style that suits his players after he was appointed in February, Esswein has settled in brilliantly, Contento has been fitter than usual, and even Behrens is going above and beyond at the moment. Their only negative is that the man they signed to score goals for them in January, Schmidt, is still out! Things feel positive at SV Sandhausen, though. They’re confident, and they’re troubling lots of teams. A struggling Kiel should really whet their appetite tonight.

For me, backing the visitors to avoid defeat in northern Germany makes sense here.

Verdict: SV Sandhausen to win with a +0.5 AsianHandicap at 41/50.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

UEFA Champions League:

Manchester City – No absentees.
Paris Saint-Germain – Bernat, Gueye, and Letellier are absent. Mbappe is a doubt.

German Bundesliga 2:

Holstein Kiel – Awuku, Gelios, Ignjovski, Sterner, Thesker, and Kirkeskov are absent.
SV Sandhausen – Scheu, Schmidt, and Wulle are absent.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

UEFA Champions League:

Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain (6) over 2.5 goals

Copa Libertadores:

Santos vs The Strongest (7) 2-0
Union La Calera vs Velez Sarsfield (5) 1-2
Atletico Mineiro vs Cerro Porteno (4) 2-2
Defensa y Justicia vs Palmeiras (6) 1-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Boca Juniors (5) 1-1
Liga de Quito vs Flamengo (5) 2-1

Copa Sudamericana:

Bahia vs Independiente (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Metropolitanos vs Aucas (6) 0-0
Melgar FBC vs Athletico Paranaense (5) 0-1
Palestino vs Newell’s Old Boys (6) 1-2

Estonian Meistriliiga:

Legion vs Vaprus Parnu (6) over 2.5 goals
Kuressaare vs Flora Paide (6) 0-2

German Bundesliga 2:

Holstein Kiel vs SV Sandhausen (4) 1-2

Italian Serie B:

Chievo Verona vs Cremonese (6) 1-0
Cittadella vs Virtus Entella (6) over 2.5 goals
Empoli vs Cosenza (6) over 2.5 goals
Vicenza vs Brescia (4) 2-2
Monza vs Lecce (5) 1-0
Pescara vs Reggiana (5) 2-1
Pisa vs Venezia (5) 0-0
Pordenone vs Salernitana (5) 1-2
Reggina vs Ascoli (6) 2-1
SPAL vs Frosinone (5) 1-1

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Dziugas Tesliai vs Banga Gargzdai (5) 1-1
Hegelmann Litauen vs Dainava (6) 2-0
Nevezis vs Zalgiris Vilnius (7) 1-2

Romanian Liga 1:

Chindia Targoviste vs Gaz Metan Medias (5) 1-0

Swiss Schweizer Pokal:

Aarau vs Luzern (6) over 2.5 goals

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