TFT Issue 342!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
FC Honka Espoo vs VPS Vaasa – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the Finnish Liiga Cup game between heavyweights FC Honka Espoo and VPS Vaasa.
It’s a tough competition to get involved heavily in, the Liiga Cup, because the motivation for it isn’t all that high. However, if I was to pick a winner, then it’d be FC Honka Espoo at the moment. They’ve been playing the most convincingly out of all the sides that I’ve seen and they’re coping well without their departed players. They’ve played a few friendlies out in Turkey lately and have generally impressed with Nigerian hitman Dudu finding his form again by bagging three times. Honka have looked the most settled side in the tournament thus far and given that they’re one of the top sides in it, I do expect them to do well. The additional incentive that the Finnish FA brought in to encourage clubs to play more focused football in this competition was a bye through the majority of the Suomi Cup rounds and that would benefit Honka massively as strength in-depth is not something that they have and thus less games is a plus. Honka are a goalscoring side and with the above in mind, I feel they’ll do just that today.
The danger with taking European Handicaps where Honka are concerned is that they’re never far away from conceding goals, especially with the naivety of the likes of Rexhepi in their team. However, this is the bit where VPS waltz in, put their hands up, and surrender because they’re not in a good position to do well in this game at all. I was impressed with them in the group stages of this competition when you consider that they lost Tanska pre-season, who was their defensive rock. I was impressed to see then snap up Parikka from Honka too, as he’ll be a good forward for the likes of VPS. However, let’s not beat around the bush – VPS will be in the relegation battle in the Veikkausliiga this season, as per usual, and it’ll be their away form that damages them the most, as per usual. This side does not travel well and their true colours started to come out at the end of the group stages with VPS struggling to threaten the goal with any kind of consistency. For today’s game, VPS face even more of an uphill struggle than normal with huge absentees in attack. Striker Parikka misses out whilst Jamaican striker Morrissey is a big doubt. Additionally, irreplacable Bjork is missing so there’s no link between midfield and attack, especially with Heini out too. Inutile was sold to Lombard Papa pre-season so God only knows who they’ll play in midfield. Defensively speaking, Woodbine and Tanska both left, essential defender Koskimaa is missing today, and regular goalkeeper Henriksson is out too with no recognisable replacement. To be horribly blunt, VPS are fucked here.
If Honka don’t win this game then it’s entirely down to them not applying themselves correctly because VPS can barely withstand them at the best of times, let alone with half their squad missing. For me, this should be a clear home win, hence the -1.5 handicap appealing to me at 6/5.
P.S. Don’t pay any attention to rising/falling odds when betting in Finland. They always jump around just before kick-off and it’s usually because people betting on the competition know very little about it.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Additional games
Sporting Gijon vs Real Mallorca – home win at 7/5.
As much as loyal TFT user Ogre would hate to see it, I think Sporting Gijon will avoid the drop this season. The Javier Clemente effect is becoming clear for all to see with Sporting’s displays looking a lot more efficient and determined. Sporting are always a hard side to play at home anyway but Clemente has straightened out their defence and made them more effective in front of goal. They’ve scored in five consecutive Primera Liga games now and with essential midfielder De Las Cuevas returning for today’s game, they’re virtually at full-strength. Colunga has given them an additional dimension in front of goal that the average Bilic usually can’t provide and the pace of Trejo is looking more dangerous than earlier this season (somehow!). Barral is in good form and with Sporting starting to believe in themselves under their experienced boss, I fancy them to take three points in this game.
I quite like Mallorca but they’re no away side. They’re one of the most predictable away sides in the division which is why they tend to fare so badly on the road. Indeed, they’ve got a bizarre record away from home – they’ve only managed to avoid defeat three times after falling behind and they’ve required a penalty in two of those games in order for them to get back into it. In fact, just short of half of their away goals this season have come from the penalty spot, just to give you an idea of how ineffectual they are on the road. Mallorca have a good boss in Caparros and can be threats but rarely away from the Balaerics. Additionally, their attacking options are heavily reduced today with Ogunjimi and especially Castro both out. Well, we’re assuming that Castro is out as he’s suspended but there’s a meeting at some point today to decide whether to rescind all suspensions for today’s games. Yes, the Spanish FA are a crazy bunch and no, I am not making this up. Anyway, Castro is the focal point of their attacks – take him out of the equation and Mallorca scoring a goal is a miracle. Additionally, battling Pereira in midfield and essential defender Ramis miss out so Mallorca are not well-placed to get a result in northern Spain here.
For me, there’s value on Sporting winning this one at 7/5 with the above in mind, especially with the likelihood that they’ll be level on points with Villarreal at that stage as Real Madrid should really win at El Madrigal.
Verdict: Sporting Gijon to win at 7/5.
The Strongest vs Internacional – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
The Strongest are an insane bunch but I do love watching them. They epitomise the word “samba” in the sense that they have no concept of defending and simply attack from start to finish. They totally outplayed Santos earlier in this competition and a similar performance today would not surprise me. True, the Bolivian hosts are not experts in finishing but with the amount of chances that they create, they don’t have to be. They have a huge altitude advantage here that Internacional will have to learn to deal with, which I doubt they’ll be able to. The likes of D’Alessandro and Damiao can create/score goals for the visitors here but the altitude should defeat the visitors with the proviso that their Bolivian hosts take their chances. It’s not a game to enter the 1×2 market on but over 2.5 goals at 9/10 appeals to me a lot.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Jaro Pietarsaari vs Inter Turku – away win at 7/5.
There’s not much in the way of team news available for this game but if quality counts for anything then it shouldn’t really matter as Inter Turku should be too good for their hosts. Eremenko is a good boss but he’s not working with much nowadays as most of Jaro’s good players have left, including towering Georgian hitman Siribadze, who left for Inter Turku pre-season. For that reason, let’s all put our money on him scoring against his old club today as it’s somewhat inevitable! Dragtsma’s Inter Turku have looked good in this tournament en mass, though, and they should have enough in the tank to damage their hosts without response here, especially with arguably the best set piece taker in Finland at their disposal – Ojala. Inter Turku are always susceptible to conceding stupid and unnecessary goals but they’ve got more firepower than their hosts in this game and I thoroughly expect it to show by the end of the encounter, hence my selection of the away win.
Verdict: Inter Turku to win at 7/5.
Team news
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – No absentees.
Ludogorets – Kishada and Stoyanov are absent. Marcelinho returns.
Slavia Sofia – Zlatinov and Yorunkov are absent. Akioshi is a doubt.
Levski Sofia – Juninho is absent. Ramos and Yovov return.
Kaliakra – Kovachev is absent. Trifonov tried to resign but it was refused.
Chernomorets Burgas – Terziev returns. Dyankov is absent.
Beroe – Vezalov and Dzaferovic are absent.
Litex Lovech – Nicacio is absent.
English Championship:
Cardiff City – No absentees.
Coventry City – Thron, Baker, and Hreidasson are absent. McDonald is a doubt.
Blackpool – No absentees.
Leicester City – Gallagher and King are absent. Danns is a doubt.
Ipswich Town – Bullard is absent.
Burnley – Rodriguez is a doubt.
Finnish Liiga Cup:
FC Honka Espoo – No news.
VPS Vaasa – Bjork, Koskimaa, Henriksson, Parikka, and Heini are absent. Morrissey and Engstrom are doubts.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Warg is absent. Emet returns.
Inter Turku – Parviainen and Antunez are absent. Bahne and Diallo return.
HJK Helsinki – No news.
KuPS Kuopio – Nissinen, Joenmaki, Hynynen, Hoivala, and Paananen are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Otelul Galati – Cojoc is absent.
Dinamo Bucharest – Moti is absent. Balgradean is a doubt.
Universitatea Cluj – Tony is absent.
Astra Ploiesti – Matel is absent.
Sportul Studentesc – Varga and Stancu are absent.
CFR Cluj – No absentees.
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Olimpija Ljubljana – Andelkovic is absent. Ranic and Djermanovic are doubts.
Maribor – Arghus is absent.
Mura 05 – Horvat is absent.
Domzale – Knezevic and Pekic are absent.
Gorica – No change to the line-up.
Nafta Lendava – No news.
Celje – Bakaric, Centrih, and Hadzic are absent. Skafar is a doubt.
Triglav – No absentees.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid – Diego is absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Ocio, Castillo, Gurpegi, Igor Martinez, and Iraola are absent. Llorente is a doubt.
Sporting Gijon – Gregory is absent. De Las Cuevas returns.
Real Mallorca – Tejera, Ogunjimi, K.Garcia, Ramis, Pereira, and Castro are absent.
Real Sociedad – Griezmann, C.Martinez are absent. Bergara is a doubt. Mikel Gonzalez returns.
Levante – Juanlu and Valdo are absent.
Valencia CF – Canales, Pereira, and Tino Costa are absent.
Real Zaragoza – Postiga and Micael are absent. Lanzaro returns.
Villarreal CF – Marchena, Rossi, Catala, and Valero are absent. Cani returns. New boss Lotina.
Real Madrid – Di Maria, Albiol, Varane, and Altintop are absent.