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KO: (UK time)
CFR Cluj tend to fare well against Sepsi, which is because the two teams are on very good terms with one another. This is the kind of game that CFR Cluj will be ‘allowed’ to win on the understanding that it’s not a massacre. The home team need the points for obvious reasons, and Sepsi generally do as they’re told to. Home win.
Verdict: CFR Cluj to win at 1/2.
KO: (UK time)
It’s a case of a must win situation for title hopefuls FCSB. Importantly, they’ve got Tanase back in attack, so assuming they approach this game like CFR Cluj did (with a fast start) then they should be able to put themselves out of sight before Academica Clinceni start playing their own lovely football. I can’t see beyond a home win here.
Verdict: FCSB to win at 1/4.
KO: (UK time)
I don’t think this will be easy for Porto. Farense have performed well lately as they bid to avoid the drop, and Porto are far from the untouchable team that they used to be. However, having said all that, I still think we can trust Porto to win this match. They need the points, both to stay ahead of SL Benfica and to keep their ridiculously slim title hopes alive, and their opponents are going to have to push out if/when they fall behind, meaning Porto should have enough opportunities to kill the game off. Farense are playing well though, with a lot of confidence, and they are creating chances. Therefore, it’s a case of no handicaps for me – but I do trust in the home win.
Verdict: FC Porto to win at 3/10.
KO: (UK time)
This game is a lesser Zealand derby, but it’s still worth bringing up because such games matter even more to FC Nordsjaelland. Most teams in Denmark raise their game when FC Copenhagen come calling anyway, of course – AGF’s fans ripped them to pieces a couple of weeks back! – but it’s even more than that for tonight’s hosts.
I think it’s fair to say that FC Copenhagen hate this fixture. True enough, they win more than they lose, but they never, ever make light work of FC Nordsjaelland. There’s always an abundance of nervy moments, and at the business end of the season when teams are tiring, I think that might just take its toll today.
You see, FC Copenhagen like to control games, and they used to be good at it under Solbakken over the years. Now, though, they struggle to do it. They’re usually very assured on the ball but a lot of that composure dissipates the moment that their ageing defence is faced with fast attackers, which is precisely what awaits them tonight. Physically, and mentally, FC Copenhagen are simply too slow to react in defence, and it costs them way too many games. On the flip side, they’re now mentally tough enough to win games when falling behind because they’re so used to it – but it’s a dangerous precedent against a team that thrives on counter-attacks, like FC Nordsjaelland do.
It’d be nice for FC Nordsjaelland to finish higher in the Superligaen but as per usual, the real victory for them is the simple fact that yet another incredibly young team has managed to finish in the top six, ahead of trams like SonderjyskE that have spent a lot of money by comparison. Anything after this point is merely a bonus for tonight’s hosts so there’s no pressure on them whatsoever. They’ve shown that with some very carefree, football-loving displays lately, which have sometimes gone their way, and sometimes not. The real pressure is on teams like FC Copenhagen, though – and that suits FC Nordsjaelland, who love being underdogs.
A few weeks ago, FC Nordsjaelland held FC Copenhagen to a 2-2 draw in the reversal of this fixture. Since then, tonight’s visitors have regained some semblance of being able to catch bitter rivals Brondby, which is sweet enough by itself, but could also lead to a UEFA Champions League place for next season. That means that winning has become paramount for them. They’ve managed it twice against AGF, but it’s more than fair to say that they’ve rode their luck in both games, never really suppressing the Aarhus outfit. The capital club were lucky that their opponents were missing first-team players in both meetings!
They don’t have that kind of luck tonight though, FC Copenhagen. They’re going to have to attempt to control a team that is fitter, faster, hungrier, and in possession of more stamina than they are. I’m not saying that’s impossible, of course – FC Midtjylland generally manage to do that to FC Nordsjaelland in most campaigns. However, this FC Copenhagen team looks less capable of doing it than most before them. The only real concern I have with opposing the favourites tonight is the clinical finishing of their attackers. As lax as they may be at the back, I don’t remember the last time FC Copenhagen looked as ruthless in front of goal as they do at the moment. It’s likely they’ll lose Wind – and possibly Daramy – in the summer because of how dangerous they’ve been, the former of which was injured for a significant portion of this campaign and yet is still their highest goal-scorer. For now though, they’re tearing up the Superligaen – and FC Nordsjaelland’s defence couldn’t keep a cow out.
It’s been the same for years, really – defending simply isn’t on FC Nordsjaelland’s radar. The concept this season was that acquiring Djourou for next to nothing would help them keep their heads at the back more but he’s been predictably been injured a lot, only just creeping into double figures appearances-wise for the present campaign. Again though, defending is not something they’re tremendously interested in at FC Nordsjaelland. Don’t get me wrong; the players work hard enough for each other, and their attackers will track back to help out. It’s just that none of them are particularly skilled when it comes to marking, or anticipating runs in behind. In other words, FC Nordsjaelland usually concede goals on a regular basis.
Their attack, though – it’s just phenomenal, and I’ve no idea how they so consistently do what they do. They just rely on their academy players to keep them afloat, year after year, and it’s been working for a lot of years now. They must either have an amazing scouting network (especially in Ghana) or brilliant motivators on their coaching staff because they’ve produced some brilliant attackers over the years, the most recent of which is Kudus, who is now on the books of AFC Ajax Amsterdam. The most recent one to be linked with a big move elsewhere is Sulemana, who is purported to be attracting the attention of Manchester United. He’s far from the only one, though – teenager Schjelderup, Chukwani, Christensen, Kofod Andersen, and especially Francis have all done sterling jobs this season, and I’m sure that at least three of them will move on in summer. For now though, they’re all together, this youthful crazy gang, and that makes FC Nordsjaelland a complete nightmare to face. They’re all so quick, both in terms of speed and in terms of moving the ball, and they never seem to run out of energy either. Lasting for ninety minutes against a team like this is incredibly demanding – and often too much for other Superligaen clubs, particularly at this stage of the season.
The bookies aren’t wrong to make FC Copenhagen favourites here, for clarity. They’ve got better players than FC Nordsjaelland, and a lot more experience too. However, the way they constantly invite opponents into matches via poor game control makes me think that FC Copenhagen are going to stumble here. If you prefer, you can try backing goals here; I can’t deny that that’s a safer approach than the one I’ve taken. However, based on what I’ve seen from both teams lately, I believe that backing the underdogs to avoid defeat tonight carries the better value.
Verdict: FC Nordsjaelland to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at evens.
KO: (UK time)
The second of tonight’s German action is a bottlers vs bottlers affair with Hamburger SV doing their level best to avoid promotion once more, and Nurnberg – who should be vying with them for promotion, given the quality in their squad – have only recently managed to avoid relegation.
It goes without saying that Hamburger SV need to win tonight. Despite a shocking return for Holstein Kiel, they’ve been absolutely electric in their last two matches, and I can only assume that they’ll beat Hannover 96 this evening too. If they do, that puts them seven points clear of Hamburger SV – and tonight’s hosts can only pick up nine points for the rest of this season. It’s getting to the point now where it might actually look more feasible to catch Greuther Furth, and even that’s a tall order. In a nutshell, Hamburger SV need to win all of their remaining games, starting tonight.
The trouble is that they’ve had to do that for a week or two now – and still haven’t. Indeed, it’s their consecutive year of bottling promotion despite having one of the best squads in the Bundesliga 2. It’s crazy, honestly. Their heads simply go to mush at this stage of the season. They give away goals incredibly easily – especially when pushing out because they’ve fallen behind – and they lack conviction in the final third. Whether they’re gone in front or they’ve fallen behind, Hamburger SV have looked consistently uncomfortable for weeks now – and it’s going to cost them, yet again.
It was recently announced that star striker Terodde will be leaving in the summer, moving to Schalke 04 to help them try to return to the Bundesliga. I don’t blame him; he’s never been good enough for the Bundesliga, so to play for one of Germany’s biggest clubs is an opportunity he can’t possibly decline at his age. Where does that leave Hamburger SV, though? Do they go and dig up whatever rock Hinterseer is currently hiding under? Last I heard, he was in South Korea. It’s a problem they’ll have to overcome though, because Terodde’s experience up front this season is all that’s stopped them from embarrassing themselves even more than they already have.
Please don’t ask me what the actual issue at Hamburger SV is, though, because I don’t know. For a weirdo like me that obsesses over football, I’ve contemplated this matter for weeks of my life (collectively!) and I still cannot figure it out. They’ve attempted different approaches rather than being arrogant, which is nice to see, but nothing works for them. The pressure on them is simply too great at this stage of the season and their players cannot handle it. Short of replacing all their younger players with players that are 30+, I’m not sure what else they can do.
Being in a position where there’s no pressure, where they can attack teams on their own terms, and when their opponents aren’t too fussed about getting at them – that’s where Hamburger SV excel. At times like these though, most teams have something to play for, and are prepared to lay their lives on the line for it. I never really get that conviction when I see Hamburger SV play. Some players do, of course, but certainly not all. They just can’t deal with this stage of the season, tonight’s hosts, and I would not even hesitate in stating that they have the best squad in the division right now too, which makes it all the more baffling.
Admittedly, Nurnberg have nothing left to play for after they meandered their way to avoiding the drop. Technically, having avoided the relegation play-off this season, I suppose you loosely have to regard this campaign as progression from the visitors. For me though, they’ve been a massive disappointment, yet again. They’re a big club, and they’ve got good resources. That’s why they’ve got such good players on their books – and yet they almost never show it. This team just doesn’t give a shit enough, and it’s almost as if they arrogantly believe that the world owes them something, based on their somewhat cocky displays. Few teams have deserved relegation more than Nurnberg, based purely on their attitudes.
So why do I want to back these lazy sods tonight? Simple, really – they thrive without pressure. In a pressure cooker match, I’d always advise opposing Nurnberg nowadays because they get a lot wrong. However, when there’s nothing at stake, the brilliance of their squad is actually revealed, which is something Nurnberg work hard on making folks forget about. Lately, they’ve delivered some really impressive displays because they can no longer be relegated. For example, I know that winning at Aue is hardly something to write home about but for a lazy team like Nurnberg to win against seasoned battlers, faced with relegation, picking up three points is verging upon being magical for them.
Since then, they tore Heidenheim a new one – and that’s a Heidenheim team that was pushing for promotion at that point – and they obliterated Holstein Kiel last time out too. How the hell it ended 1-1, I really couldn’t tell you. They made a few second-half substitutions that slightly stemmed the tide, Holstein Kiel, but they were still under heavy pressure for the majority of that half, and indeed the game. Nurnberg rattled the woodwork at least twice when 1-0 up, and saw numerous other good opportunities squandered. It wasn’t their day – but they were the far better team, and that’s been the story ever since they got to play without pressure.
The above – plus the return of key creator Hack – makes me think that Nurnberg can get a positive result tonight. Hopefully, target man Schaffler will be back too, but I’ve not heard anything on that front so don’t quote me on it! I think Nurnberg are in a far better place than their hosts right now, at least from a mental perspective, and they’re playing with enough hunger and attacking intent to make this must-win game incredibly uncomfortable for the promotion hopefuls. Therefore, I’m going to boldly back the underdogs tonight.
Verdict: Nurnberg to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 23/20.
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
Danish Superligaen:
FC Nordsjaelland – Amon is absent. Diomande, Hansen, and Djourou are doubts.
FC Copenhagen – Oviedo is absent. Bjelland is a doubt.
English Premier League:
Fulham – Kongolo is absent. Cairney and Reed are doubts.
Burnley – Brady and Long are absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
MS Ashdod – Bayou, Azulai, and Awani are absent. Gordana and Barihon are doubts. Ben-Zaken returns.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Taha and Keltins are absent.
Italian Serie B:
Chievo Verona – No absentees.
Ascoli – Pinna is absent.
Monza – Lamanna and Paletta are absent.
Brescia – No news.
Pordenone – No news.
Cosenza – No news.
SPAL – No absentees.
Cremonese – Coccolo, Celar, Ravanelli, Alfonso, Valeri, and Crescenzi are absent.
Reggina – Stavropoulos, Faty, Situm, Micovschi, Kingsley, Menez, and Edera are absent.
Frosinone – Kastanos, Iacobucci, D’Elia, and Ariaudo are absent.
Empoli – No absentees.
Lecce – Adjapong, Pettinari, Felici, Monterisi, Maselli, Tachtsidis, Listkowski, and Borbei are absent.
Vicenza – Dalmonte and Padella are absent.
Reggiana – Rozzio, Del Pinto, Mazzocchi, Kargbo, Costa, Ajeti, and Ardemagni are absent.
Pescara – Balzano, Memushaj, Drudi, and Scognamglio are absent.
Salernitana – Dziczek and Coulibaly are absent.
Cittadella – Tavernelli, Benedetti, Perticone, and Rosafio are absent.
Venezia – Di Mariano, Svoboda, Lezzerini, Vacca, Karlsson, and Ala-Myllymaki are absent.
Pisa – No news.
Virtus Entella – No absentees.
Portuguese Liga 1:
Portimonense – Lucas is absent.
Moreirense – Amador, Lacerda, Mane, and Pedro are absent.
FC Porto – Mbaye is absent.
Farense – No absentees.
Romanian Liga 1:
CFR Cluj – Balgradean, Pereira, and Cestor are absent. Aurelio and Cibotariu are doubts.
Sepsi – Fulop, Dimitrov, Gal-Andrezly, Markovic, and Rapp are absent. Kovacs and Stefan are doubts.
FCSB – Tanase returns.
Academica Clinceni – No absentees.
Voluntari – No absentees.
Chindia Targoviste – Cherchez and Diaz are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast – El Kabir is absent.
FK Rostov – Normann is absent.
Spartak Moscow – Maslov is absent.
FK Khimki – Dyadyun, Dolgov, and Glushakov are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Betis Balompie – Fekir, Mandi, Martin, and Montoya are absent. Lainez and Canales are doubts.
Granada – Neva, Silva, Soldado, Vallejo, Milla, Lozano, and Kenedy are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Norrkoping – No absentees.
AIK Solna – Kahl is absent.
Swiss Challenge League
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – da Silva, Dalvand, Laugeois, Perrier, Rufli, and J. Monteiro are absent.
Neuchatel Xamax – Pasche, Rodriguez, and Koura are absent. Gomes is a doubt.
Winterthur – Ballet, Alves, Costinha, Mahamid, Muci, Roth, Spiegel, Volkart, and Schupbach are absent.
Grasshopper Zurich – Keller, Nadjack, Kalem, Morandi are absent.
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
Danish Superligaen:
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen (5) over 2.5 goals
English Premier League:
Fulham vs Burnley (5) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Holstein Kiel vs Hannover 96 (6) over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV vs Nurnberg (5) over 2.5 goals
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
MS Ashdod vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva (5) 1-2
Italian Serie B
Chievo Verona vs Ascoli (6) 1-0
Monza vs Brescia (6) 2-1
Pordenone vs Cosenza (4) 2-2
SPAL vs Cremonese (6) 1-0
Reggina vs Frosinone (5) 2-1
Empoli vs Lecce (4) 2-2
Vicenza vs Reggiana (5) 1-0
Pescara vs Salernitana (6) 0-2
Cittadella vs Venezia (6) 2-1
Pisa vs Virtus Entella (4) 1-1
Portuguese Liga 1:
Portimonense vs Moreirense (5) 1-1
FC Porto vs Farense (7) 2-1
Portuguese Liga 2:
Academico Viseu vs Vilafranquense (6) 2-1
Romanian Liga 1:
CFR Cluj vs Sepsi (7) 1-0
FCSB vs Academica Clinceni (7) 2-0
Voluntari vs Chindia Targoviste (4) 2-2
Russian Premier League:
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs FK Rostov (5) 1-1
Spartak Moscow vs FK Khimki (6) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Betis Balompie vs Granada (5) 1-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Norrkoping vs AIK Solna (5) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax (5) 2-1
Winterthur vs Grasshopper Zurich (5) 1-1
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