TFT Issue 346!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
AC Milan vs Barcelona – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Italy between giants AC Milan and reigning champions Barcelona. This game was a superb one back at the end of 2011 when the two teams met in the group stage and I think we’ll see another cracking encounter here.
At home, Milan are a real force. They simply play very solidly as a unit with great belief and attacking power. They attack with pace, with determination, and with class, which makes them very hard to handle. Ibrahimovic in particular will be keen to do well here against his former club and don’t be surprised if Robinho does the same as a former Real Madrid player. There are lots of experienced heads in this Milan side and I’m pretty confident that they will score goals here.
So why take Barcelona and not over 3 goals? Over 3 goals certainly does appeal to me but I like Barcelona with the -1 Asian Handicap more. Why? Absentees. Milan always have absentees but they have two very important ones today. The first is Van Bommel. He’s probably not the best midfielder to have ever graced the planet but his positioning, his experience, and his ability to piss off his opponents with cheeky fouls is very underrated – he’s a nightmare to play against. His absence, despite Gattuso’s return, will cause Milan problems against the scintillating Xavi and Iniesta. The other huge blow is the absence of Thiago Silva, who is unequivocally the best defender in Milan’s squad. He’s been a tower of strength for them this season in every big game that they’ve played in and the fact is that without him they do look vulnerable.
I watched Milan entertain Roma at weekend and despite dominating Roma for large periods of the game, Milan conceded a sloppy goal and made life hard for themselves. A composed head in defence would have cleared the ball properly in the first or second instance but for it to continue until Roma scuffed a cross into the net was just a joke. I am fully confident that Roma would not have scored had Thiago Silva stayed on the field at that point. Milan managed to turn the game around but that vulnerability with Bonera in the back four is plain to see and it should be highlighted here.
Forget Barcelona’s form; let’s just look at Messi’s form. Barcelona are not a one-man team but when Messi is playing well, it’s hard to talk about anyone else. He was excellent in the previous meeting with Milan here and I’m sure he will be again in this game. He’s scoring so many goals right now that Milan won’t be able to contain him, I’m sure. The devastating pace of Sanchez and Tello (if used) is impossible to deal with, as is the magnificent quick passing of Xavi and Iniesta. I hope to God that Pedro doesn’t play as he’s the nadir of composure but Barcelona are playing well as a whole and they’re scoring a lot of goals, which makes me very interested in taking them with a -1 Asian Handicap here.
You have to expect Milan to score here. I do think Milan will score in this game. However, I’m siding with Barcelona -1 Asian Handicap on the principle that Barcelona can win this game 0-2 if they’re at their best. You can take over 3 goals at the same odds if you feel safer that way but I’m very confident in Barcelona at the moment so I’ll give them the nod to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Verdict: Barcelona to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Additional games
Olympique de Marseille vs Bayern Munich – lay Bayern Munich at evens.
I detest betting on games that involve Bayern Munich because you never know which one of their sides will show up! Will it be the amazing side that stuffed Hoffenheim a couple of weeks ago? Or will it be the meager side that has disappointed so often on the road in the Champions League this season? Your guess is as good as mine, I suppose!
I like the prospect of laying Bayern here, though. Better sides than Bayern have failed to win here and few sides that actually win here deserve to win here. Marseille are very predictable in their home games but there’s not much opposing sides can do about it. They’re a tediously boring home side, overly cautious, and wasteful in front of goal. They’re good at frustrating sides, though, especially with the bouncing Stade Velodrome on their side. Marseille are not a good side but they’ve got a cracking manager and are well-organised. Bayern have struggled against this type of team before (e.g. their cup game with Gladbach lately) and I think Bayern will struggle to overcome what is frankly a proven strong home side in Europe. Bayern will have to be amazing to win here, in my view, and I think the chances of that happening outweigh the chances of it happening.
Would you take a draw at the Velodrome with the home leg to come? I would! Bayern are bad enough at the back to concede against any side in this competition too, which helps massively as Marseille are woeful up front. Either way, I think Bayern are in for a tough time here so laying the short visitors appeals to me today.
Verdict: Lay Bayern Munich at evens.
Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze – away win with draw no bet at 3/1.
Call this a fun bet or whatever you like but I like the chances of this one coming in a lot more than I should given how good Lech’s squad are but allow me to explain why I think Gornik will spring a surprise.
First of all, Lech are a mess. They’re still dealing with yet another new manager (Rumak) and he’s wielded the axe on some of the club’s stars, which has upset some of the Lech faithful. Additionally, there are rumours every single day about who is going where in summer as everyone seeks to flee the sinking Lech Poznan ship with Rudnevs supposedly on the verge of signing for Hamburger SV. Wojtkowiak and Stilic are supposedly on their way too with Germany not an unlikely destination. Will Krivets say? Maybe the season-ending injury that he’s suffered will ensure that he does but I don’t think it’d be through his own free will but only time will tell. Lech are in a bad way, though – they’re playing poor football, not scoring goals, and have zero morale. Their chairman has stepped in to ring the changes in every area of the club and it’s just a shade manic right now. Since returning from the winter break, Lech have scored in just one out of their five Ekstraklasa games, which speaks volumes for a good attacking side.
Hilariously, an average side like Gornik Zabrze tend to do very well against the big clubs and then fuck up against the minnows. Gornik have a bit of a reputation for their counter-attacking pace, especially on the road, and are easy to beat for none of the big sides as a result. Take a look at their results against the Polish heavyweights this season:
Gornik 2 Legia 0
Wisla 0 Gornik 1
Polonia 1 Gornik 1
Gornik 2 Lech 1
They’re always much more motivated against the bigger clubs and I’m not entirely sure why. Perhaps it’s because they used to be a big club themselves? Either way, Gornik Zabrze are real battlers and this will not be an easy game for an unsettled Lech Poznan side. With no defeats since returning from the winter break, Gornik bring great momentum into this game and with dangerous Nakoulma always posing a theat, I really fancy Gornik to upset the odds here.
It probably makes more sense to lay the hosts but I feel bold and I rate Gornik in games like these so the away win with draw no bet cover is screaming out “value!” at 3/1.
Verdict: Gornik Zabrze to win with draw no bet at 3/1.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Barcelona – Adriano, Villa, and Abidal are absent. Afellay is a doubt.
AC Milan – Pato, Inzaghi, Strasser, Thiago Silva, Cassano, Abate, Flamini, and Van Bommel are absent. Nesta is a doubt.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Dakson, De Carvalho, and Benjalun are absent. Dyakov and Georgiev return.
Montana – Gadzhev is absent.
Minior Pernik – No absentees.
Botev Vratsa – No absentees.
Lokomotiv Sofia – No absentees.
Slavia Sofia – Bozhov and Zhelev are absent.
Kaliakra – No news.
Vidma-Rakovski – Kolev is a doubt.
CSKA Sofia – Priso, Stoyanov, Yanchev, and Trifonov are absent.
Beroe – Dzaferovich and Owona are absent. Lavramento, Vezalov, and Eromoigbe return.
Finnish Liiga Cup:
TPS Turku – No news.
VPS Vaasa – Bjork, Henriksson, Koskimaa, and Heini are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Lech Poznan – Injac and Krivets are absent. Wojtkowiak and Murawski are doubts.
Gornik Zabrze – Magiera, Thomik, and Marozas are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Esson, Hayes, Doran, Meekings, Gillett, Hogg, and Shinnie are absent.
St.Johnstone – M.Davidson is absent. C.Davidson is a doubt.