TFT Issue 349!
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Featured game
Aalesund FK vs Tromso – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Eliteserien game in western Norway between Aalesund and Tromso.
For one of the few times in the Eliteserien campaign, the artificial turf at the Color Line Stadion doesn’t favour the hosts as visitors Tromso also use artificial turf so they’re on a level playing field here (no pun intended).
I have an awful lot of respect for Aalesund and especially their outspoken boss Rekdal and thus you’ll rarely find me opposing Aalesund in any game. They’re very well-organised, physical, and basically hard to break through. They’re in a better position now than they have been for years with some sections of the Norwegian media predicting good things for them this year. I can’t see it happening, though – they really miss a proper striker and it shows.
I watched Aalesund’s recent trip to face Stabaek and they did very little for the majority of the game other than contain their opponents because that’s what Aalesund do very well. They’re a frustrating side with little adventure but they’re a consistent side. Rekdal tends to rely on his two Jamaicans (Morrison and Phillips) and his Costa Rican (Barrantes) to win them games with their energy and their skill. Let’s face it – a big target man like Sander Post needs all the help he can get to put the ball in the net. Aalesund can be a dangerous side, though, and they’re a bastard to break down when they have a lead. For me, Aalesund are a prime under 2.5 goals side because they’re not adventurous; they just defend their leads very well. Given that that was the whole point behind Kjetil Rekdal playing football in the first place, it’s no surprise that his team follows suit.
So the onus is on Tromso to break them down here, which they are capable of, I suppose. I like Tromso a lot too, as it happens, but they’re a stronger side in the far north than they are on their travels usually. Tromso also defend leads very well but they have a very similar problem to their hosts today this year in the sense that you have to question where their goals will come from.
I mean, old Sigurd Rushfeldt has finally retired at long last so they miss that finisher/target man. They signed Ole Martin Arst, formerly of clubs like Standard de Liege, to do the same job and to be fair, I think bringing him back to Tromso is a good move ultimately. He’s plenty of experience and knows how to find the net although I would still say that Rushfeldt was a better forward. The biggest blow that Tromso suffered with their sales pre-season was the loss of Abdellaoue, however, who made and scored an awful lot of goals for Tromso. Abdellaoue has sauntered off to try his hand at Danish Superligaen football with FC Copenhagen so there’s another gaping hole in this Tromso side. Tromso elected to loan Czech striker Ondrasek to try and fill the void and despite him scoring the winner against Fredrikstad at weekend, I still don’t think he’ll bring anything close to what Abdellaoue did. Ondrasek is a good grafter with some pace, some finesse, and bags of experience. Abdellaoue had that unpredictable quality and that’s what brought a rather stale Tromso side to life, more often than not. They’re well-regimented, just like Aalesund, but they lack the players in midfield that Aalesund have to make something happen. Tromso have a better calibre of player and are more likely to take their chances better than their hosts but for me, there’s very little between these two sides right now.
It’s early season, neither side have really found their rhythm yet. I don’t think either side would complain with a draw and I don’t think either side has the momentum nor the quality advantage to send this game over 2.5 goals. Subsequently, going under 2.5 goals looks a very good bet today. Most bookies are aware of this and the odds are nose-diving but I have seen a couple hold their line at 4/5, which suits me just fine!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional game
Orebro vs Atvidaberg – lay Orebro at evens.
I like Orebro quite a lot – is there anyone I don’t like?! – but this is the season to oppose them, in my view. They have artificial turf at their stadium, which makes them a harder side to face than the average Allsvenskan side, in my view. However, we can’t expect much from them this season because they’ve lost too many core players. I mean, this Orebro side was in Europe last season or the season before because of who they had in their team. They had Almeback holding things together at the centre of defence whilst Gerzic and Bedoya patrolled the midfield alongside Finnish duo Nordback and Porokara. It was a really good foundation for Orebro and they did very well as a result. They’ve never been great with their strikers but at dominating games and guarding leads they’ve been pretty good.
Guess how many of those players are left at Orebro now, though? That’s right – none. The last of them – Gerzic – signed for IFK Goteborg pre-season and he really was the heartbeat of this team. Bostrom recognised that he needed a replacement so he got one – Tobias Grahn. It’s a great move in the sense that Grahn has bags of experience and knows how to win games. It’s not so great when you consider that he tends to collect more yellow cards per season than he completes passes. Ok, a slight exaggeration but you get the gist! There are too many question marks over this Orebro side right now, to be blunt. Haddad is a good forward but will he keep his fitness? Paulinho is a good forward but will he recapture his Allsvenskan form that we saw at Hacken Goteborg? We’ve seen precious little of it since his move. The point I’m trying to make is that if they’re relying on Albanian attacker Rama all season long then the chances of them being relegated are greater than the chances of them getting a European place and with new faces in each position and no defensive composure right now, I’m at a loss to explain why Orebro are so short to win this game.
Don’t get me wrong here – I still believe Orebro are better than sides such as Atvidaberg. Atvidaberg are very likely to be in the relegation battle this season. They’ve looked very good in their pre-season friendlies, however, and they are scoring goals, which naturally helps. Say what you like about Atvidaberg’s level of quality but they’re a goalscoring side and that makes them dangerous opponents for a somewhat goal-shy Orebro side. Can Moller and Eriksson reproduce their outstanding Superettan form from last season on a bigger stage? That’s a question that remains to be answered. Old Bergstrom in midfield is still there and his experience will be invaluable if they’re to avoid the drop this season. They only lost one notable player pre-season and that was Bosnia-Herzegovina midfielder Radetinac. They’ve been active in the market themselves, though, signing Danish defender Olesen from IFK Mariehamn and impressively capturing Stabaek’s Cameroonian battler Olle Olle. It’s going to take some time for these players to blend into the Atvidaberg side but they’ve got some good players, some experience, and some goalscorers so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt here.
Orebro are not an easy side to face but I can see Atvidaberg scoring in this game and in my eyes that means that they won’t lose because I cannot see Orebro scoring two goals without defensive errors from Atvidaberg. It’s always hard to jump straight in at the start of a new season but for me, there looks to be value on laying Orebro today.
Verdict: Lay Orebro at evens.
Team news
Bulgarian A PFG:
Slavia Sofia – Zhelev and Bozhov are absent.
Chernomorets Burgas – Melkonian is absent. Dyankov returns.
Botev Vratsa – Tsvetkovski is absent. Vankov is a doubt.
Litex Lovech – No absentees.
Beroe – Owona and Dzaferovic are absent.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – De Carvalho and Dakson are absent.
Levski Sofia – No absentees.
Ludogorets – Marcelinho is absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Banik Ostrava – Sverkos is absent.
Viktoria Plzen – Prochazka is absent.
Danish Superligaen:
AGF Aarhus – Graulund returns.
SonderjyskE – Hansen, Vibe, and Antipas are absent. Fabricius returns.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Haifa – Degani, Tawatha, Meshumar, Boccoli, and Golasa are absent. Ghadir returns.
MS Ashdod – Tubul is absent. El-Hamid and Werta return.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona – No absentees.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Yadin, Toama, Edel, Tamuz, Shushan, and Kende are absent. Fransman returns.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Zaglebie Lubin – No absentees.
Jagiellonia Bialystok – Frankowski, Rasiak, Pawlowski, Cionek, and Porebski are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sevilla CF – Navarro and Spahic are absent.
Real Mallorca – Kevin Garcia is absent.