TFT Issue 366
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Featured game
Mainz 05 vs Koln – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Bundesliga encounter between Mainz 05 and Koln.
Although haphazard on the form charts, Mainz 05 have become deceptively consistent with their new attacking style. Tuchel knows this squad inside out by now and they will do whatever he wants them to, such is the respect that he has from his squad. He gives Mainz 05’s thin squad the motivation and desire that they need to carry on, even at this late stage of the season, and subsequently we shouldn’t lose faith in tonight’s hosts. Sure, they lost 4-1 at Stuttgart but their carefree attacking game does leave gaps and allows for goals to be conceded as a result. Therefore, it’s important to take Mainz 05 to win games where they’ve got a good chance of outscoring their opponents, such as in tonight’s game. Zidan has been in inspired form this season, as has fellow Cameroonian attacker Choupo-Moting. Ivanschitz is the real diamond though, in my view. The Austrian playmaker is at the heart of everything and the tenacious forwards in front of him make his life a lot easier. Defensively, they’re all over the place but this side has good cohesion and they do score goals so I fancy them here.
Helpfully, Koln are ruined at the moment for varying reasons. Rumours of a financial crisis and Lukas Podolski’s not-so-secret move to Arsenal have completely disrupted their camp and they just look a mess as a result. Ok, they were facing the reigning champions at the time, but how many sides can win the first-half 1-0 and then lose 1-6 by the final whistle? That shows how much Koln’s heads drop when they fall behind right now. They’re useless at defending away from home and are useless in front of goal without Podolski carrying them so they’re a rather predictable side. Don’t go against them if they’re playing well and are playing at home but happily, neither of those are an issue here. Koln have shipped thirteen goals in their last four games; it’s just not good enough.
For me, there’s a big gulf between these two sides. One has a purpose and is delivering consistent displays, if not consistent results. The other side is playing badly and are being punished for it. With that in mind, I have to fancy Mainz 05 to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Verdict: Mainz 05 to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Additional games
Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Augsburg have done really, really well in the past few weeks. In fact, they’ve not lost at home in the Bundesliga since November so do approach this one with caution. Augsburg are extremely determined to beat the drop and Luhukay has to take the credit for motivating his frankly average side to such a degree. Augsburg battled really well at Bayern Munich in their last game but still lost 2-1, which should be a handy reminder that they’re still human, after all. It breaks up the momentum, which I find useful for this bet. Augsburg have this game just three days after their exhausting match in Munich and there’s no way that they have the depth to rotate players. Augsburg are scoring goals, which helps, but they’re also conceding goals, which doesn’t help. When Augsburg encounter a side that has the capability to score lots of goals against them, they should really struggle, which is my approach for this game.
Stuttgart can’t defend for shit, especially with Boulahrouz out injured. However, that’s just the way they play their football nowadays; they just attack. Why not take that approach, though? It clearly works for them. Stuttgart may concede goals but the massive belief that they have in themselves wins them half of the battle in each game. I mean, how many sides in Germany could be 2-0 down in Dortmund against the reigning champions with twenty minutes remaining and go on to draw an amazing game 4-4? It wasn’t coincidence that that happened; Stuttgart simply have a lot of belief. In addition to that, Stuttgart have two dynamic strikers in Ibisevic and Harnik, who are unplayable when they choose to be. Falling behind doesn’t bother Stuttgart; they know they’ll score goals ultimately. The only times to be concerned with Stuttgart are if they’re not motivated or if they’re facing a side that can outscore them. With a European place in the offering, I don’t see motivation being a problem here. As far as goalscoring goes, Augsburg may spring a surprise in this game but Stuttgart are by far the more potent side and thus I fancy them here.
For me, there’s lots of value on the away win with draw no bet cover.
Verdict: VfB Stuttgart to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Hertha BSC Berlin vs SC Freiburg – under 2.5 goals at evens.
I reckon a lot of people will be taking Freiburg for this game but I’m not one of them. Freiburg are on a terrific run but there are some games that are harder than others and this is one of them, in my eyes.
Ok, Hertha Berlin are going to avoid relegation. Why? Rehhagel. He’s tremendously experienced and gets the best out of his players. Tactically, he knows exactly how to play each team and he makes sure that his teams defend perfectly as to frustrate their opponents. Hertha don’t have the quality to pull it off against the Bundesliga’s elite but they can do it against sides that aren’t particularly good goalscorers, hence their 0-0 draw with Borussia Moenchengladbach recently. Hertha have to be motivated to win this game because they’re running out of time to pull away from the relegation zone and let’s be realistic – this is a very “winnable” game for the hosts, especially given how consistently poor Freiburg are on the road in German football in general. Hertha’s record isn’t flattering on paper but look at their record since Rehhagel took over. Excluding the games against what I call “goalscoring teams” (which are Bayern Munich and VfL Wolfsburg in this instance), three out of Hertha’s last four games have gone under 2.5 goals because they’re defending very solidly. They don’t have good enough strikers to score lots of goals but they’re working very hard and they’re well-organised so I expect them to do well here.
Freiburg are playing well; too well, in all honesty. They’re not good enough to maintain it, in my view. It’s not like they still have Cisse carrying them now! I don’t want to take anything away from Streich’s work because they are on a fantastic run of form. However, let’s be realistic – they’ve had a “favourable” run of late, shall we say. Wins at Leverkusen and Hamburg look great on paper but Leverkusen sacked their manager after that game due to a terrible run and Hamburg will lose against any side that can string two passes together. Freiburg are real battlers and they’re not a side to ever underestimate on their own turf. However, they’re predictable on the road and they can be stopped by a side like Hertha. Streich misses a few players for this game, such as Dembele, Putsila, Barth, Makiaidi etc. These are not huge blows en mass but for a fairly thin squad, they do limit Streich’s options here. Makiaidi is having a great season and he will be missed here, however. His absence leaves the goalscoring duty squarely on the shoulders of attacking midfielder Caligiuri and average striker Reisinger. Although I respect Freiburg’s unity, they aren’t a very good side and I’d be surprised to see them demolish a decent Hertha side here.
Freiburg are marginally the better side but for me, this is their hardest game in weeks and I don’t think they’ll get a positive result here. I think they’d take a draw from the game and I don’t think either side are good enough to send this game over 2.5 goals without inspiration or help so for me, taking under 2.5 goals at evens looks well worth it.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Excelsior Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen – away win at 4/5.
Excelsior may have artificial turf at their stadium but that’s their only advantage nowadays. They’re just a woeful side, to be horribly blunt. They can occasionally produce something from an attacking perspective but they’re all over the place defensively. Excelsior have to attack and score goals or they’re relegated. Truth be told, they’re pretty much consigned to Eerste Divisie football next season anyway but whilst it’s mathematically possible that they’ll survive the drop, I’m sure that they’ll keep battling. They concede far too many goals far too easily, though and I can’t see their form improving against in-form NEC Nijmegen. The visitors are playing really well at the moment and the beauty of that is that NEC score goals when they play well because of their momentum. Scoring goals is something that NEC aren’t very good at, as a rule. However, when confidence is high and momentum is on your side, you naturally find goals easier to come by and that’s where NEC are right now. They’re fighting for UEFA Europa League football next season and with a string of good displays/results leading them into this game, it’s hard to view 4/5 on the away win as anything but a steal today.
Verdict: NEC Nijmegen to win at 4/5.
Team news
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Sillamae Kalev – Ivanov is absent.
Nomme Kalju – No absentees.
Flora Tallinn – Have re-signed Aksalu but won’t feature today.
Flora Paide – Koll and Tikenberg are absent.
Levadia Tallinn – No absentees.
Kuressaare – No absentees.
Maag Tammeka Tartu – No absentees.
Tallinna Kalev – Mamedov and Alijev are absent.
German Bundesliga:
Augsburg – De Jong, Bah, and Gogia are absent.
VfB Stuttgart – Boulahrouz, Gebhart, Delpierre, and Audel are absent.
Werder Bremen – Borowski, Hunt, Stevanovic, Arnautovic, Ekici, Proedl, and Bergfrede are absent.
Borussia Moenchengladbach – No absentees.
Hertha BSC Berlin – Lustenberger, Franz, Ronny, and Mijatovic are absent.
SC Freiburg – Barth, Brandstetter, Putsila, Dembele, Hohn, and Makiadi are absent.
Mainz 05 – Bell, Risse, Gopko, Svensson, and Ujah are absent.
Koln – Chihi, Andrezinho, and Uth are absent.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Excelsior Rotterdam – Vincken, de Vriers, van Steensel, and Schenkeveld are absent.
NEC Nijmegen – Goossens and Nijland are absent.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Valerenga Oslo – Kone, Thomassen, and Solli are absent.
Viking Stavanger – Cardozo, Andersson, Ingelsten, and Landu Landu are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Sociedad – No news.
Real Betis Balompie – Castro, Benat, and Iriney return.
Osasuna – Sergio, Nekounam, Ruben, Sola, Masoud are absent. Lamah returns. Balde may return.
Espanyol – Raul Rodriguez, Rui Fonte, and Albin are absent. C.Alvarez, Jordi Amat, and Galan return.
Barcelona – Villa and Abidal are absent.
Getafe – Pedro Leon, Lopo, Rafa, and Ustari are absent.