TFT Issue 369!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen – home win at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Bundesliga encounter between Stuttgart and Werder Bremen.
Stuttgart are just going from strength to strength as they continue their quest to be playing European football next season. They’ve been absolutely fantastic of late, scoring at will, and winning games a-plenty. They even came from two goals down to draw a dramatic game at reigning champions Bv09 Borussia Dortmund with the final result actually being 4-4. Stuttgart just look very confident going forward and that confidence doesn’t disappear when the concede, which is fortunate as they do tend to concede a lot. I’m all for risk-taking but don’t watch Stuttgart if you need them to win and you’re of a nervous disposition because they cannot defend and they will concede in most games that they play in, if not all. Indeed, a Stuttgart clean sheet should be linked to some kind of extra-terrestrial activity, in my experience. Nonetheless, the link-up play between Harnik and Ibisevic makes Stuttgart a very potent attacking side and they’ve got plenty of support from midfield so I will be taking Stuttgart very seriously indeed here.
No wins in five games tells the story for Bremen and they’re not too likely to be playing European football next season themselves with the way things are going. The quality is there but the cohesion isn’t, the finesse isn’t, and I cannot remember the last time that this squad had no injuries to deal with. Their back four is forever changing, hence them conceding goals so easily. Their only consistently good striker is Pizarro so if he’s dealt with properly then Bremen’s chances of scoring goals are massively reduced. There are some good players that can make things happen, such as Marin, for example. However, this happening + a good result for Bremen is a pretty rare combination at the moment and Bremen’s players frankly give the impression that they want the season to be over and done with already and who can blame them? Number one goalkeeper Tim Wiese has announced in the past few days that he’s signed a contract with another club next season as he “wants to be fighting for a European place rather than playing in the lower end of the league table”, basically. Amusingly, he won’t say who it is, although my instinct says Schalke 04 or VfL Wolfsburg. Still, we’ll see!
Either way, things aren’t too rosy for Bremen right now and it’s not hard to see why. There are too many questions and not enough answers. Ironically enough, there’s not much between these two sides when you look at them on paper – it’s just that Stuttgart look far, far more convincing in their games and attack with far greater purpose and variety. With that in mind, I have to look at odds of 5/6 on the home win as a bargain today.
Verdict: VfB Stuttgart to win at 5/6.
Additional games
Ceske Budejovice vs Slavia Prague – home win at 8/5.
Ceske at 8/5 at home? Seriously? I fancy that!
Look, I’m not going to lie to you – Ceske really aren’t a very good side. They work hard, however, and they do tend to play an attacking formation at home, which allows even their average strikers to score goals. Their strong work ethic and former defensive style allows them the flexibility to hold a lead from time to time too, which really helps as the Gambrinus Liga draws to a close and they find themselves battling relegation, as per usual. Ceske always seem to manage to evade the drop and I think three points today would be enough to guarantee them Gambrinus Liga football next season too. They’ve done really well in their last two games, winning both without conceding. In fact, their whole attitude and approach since returning from the winter break has been outstanding, hence them winning three out of their last five home games in the Gambrinus Liga, which is 60% of their home wins for the season. They’re not afraid of hard work, Ceske, and they really thrive on momentum, so I fancy them to get a much needed three points here.
Slavia Prague are a bit of a mystery right now. A club with so much history as one of the biggest Czech clubs is just fading away into mediocrity and nothing that they’re doing seems to be helping prevent that. The continual opposition by the Slavia faithful to takeovers etc. is leaving the club with some bloody awful players, especially up front. They’ve still got a good defence and a decent midfield but goalscoring looks beyond them nowadays – well, barring in games with horrendous teams like Viktoria Zizkov! Slavia aren’t going down this season but as for next season – who knows? They’ve lost interest in the games remaining this season and their absentees make it hard for them to have a chance against such a determined side.
IF Slavia turn it on then they might get a positive result here but that’s happened once or twice during the whole season and I don’t see any reason for it to happen again today.
Oh, and one more thing. Tomas Repka may be 38 years of age but he’s still the best defender in the Czech Republic. Since he signed for Ceske in the transfer window, they’ve kept five clean sheets in nine games. That is no coincidence! If Ceske take the lead in this game, I thoroughly expect them to hold it against an impotent Slavia Prague side – well, unless Repka takes it upon himself to execute some rather “physical” revenge on Sparta Prague’s bitter rivals!
Verdict: Ceske Budejovice to win at 8/5.
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg BK – under 3 goals at 4/5.
This should be interesting. I’ve mentioned previously how Fredrikstad have lost a real gem of an attacking player in Celso Borges, who is now with AIK Solna, but this leaves all their attacking hopes on Elyounoussi. Now, he is a very good player but is he good enough to destroy Rosenborg on his own? From time to time – yes. Consistently? No. Fredrikstad’s roaring fans will be out in their droves to support their side here, which makes it a hard game for Rosenborg to do well in. Fredrikstad are always inspired by their beloved fans and boy do they need them this season! Avoiding relegation will be an achievement in itself given their lack of depth and lack of quality. The only side they’ve scored goals against with any regularity this season has been Stabaek, who sold virtually all their good players pre-season due to financial problems. Fredrikstad tend to adopt a more cautious game against superior sides (e.g. their loss at Tromso) and the games tend to go under as a result. Rosenborg are a bit hit-and-miss nowadays really – they’re either awful or superb. They’ve tended to be on the “awful” side so far this season rather than the “brilliant” side with some unconvincing displays leading them into this game. Their forward line is experienced and strong but very predictable so stopping them from scoring isn’t as hard as it used to be. Rosenborg are still the superior of the two sides but if their creativity is now hinging upon Nigerian attacker Chibuike then Rosenborg are in for some interesting games this season as he is largely unpredictable. Rosenborg as a whole are too predictable and I think Fredrikstad will handle them pretty well here.
That said, the 1×2 market is just a huge “no go” for me because nothing would surprise me in this stadium. However, taking under 3 goals appeals to me a lot at 4/5 because Fredrikstad lack the quality and the suicidal tendancies to send this game over 3 goals; only Rosenborg have a say in that. Based on what I have seen so far, we’re more likely to see an unconvincing Rosenborg display and thus we should see a low-scoring game. Therefore, I’m opting for under 3 goals at 4/5, hard as they can be to call in the Eliteserien, especially where Rosenborg are concerned!
Verdict: Under 3 goals at 4/5.
Team news
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Ceske Budejovice – Bakala and Strasky are absent.
Slavia Prague – Hurka, Kores, Conka, Contofalsky, Simecek, Blazek, Latka, and Skoda are absent. Jarolim is a doubt.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
GKS Belchatow – Szmatiuk, Wilusz, and Nowosielski are absent.
Jagiellonia Bialystok – Plizga, Kupisz, and Frankowski are absent.
Korona Kielce – No news.
Zaglebie Lubin – Isailovic, Rachwal, and Hodur are absent.
Polish Liga 1:
Piast Gliwice – Matras and Cicras are absent.
Nieciecza – Biskup is absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo FF – Helander is absent.
Kalmar FF – Jung is absent. Dauda returns.