TFT Issue 374!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Dolcan Zabki vs Arka Gdynia – home win with draw no bet at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Polish Liga 1 game between Dolcan Zabki and Arka Gdynia.
Hosts Dolcan Zabki are from a tiny village and have a small but ferociously loyal bunch of followers. They’re far from the most masterful of hosts in this division but you can see from their results how hard it is for away sides to win here. Dolcan Zabki are surprisingly good defensively when you consider the names that they have (on paper). Attack is where they struggle the most and that won’t be aided today by the absence of important attacking midfielder Piesio. The reliance on former Ruch Chorzow winger Grzelak will be huge as neither Tataj nor Swierblewski are capable of producing anything by themselves, although they are capable of putting the ball in the net. Still, Dolcan Zabki do tend to play a more “inspired” game on their own turf and given that they’re battling against relegation, I’m happy to give them the nod here. After all, they’re yet to concede a goal at home in 2012 despite facing two superior sides (Flota Swinoujscie and Zawisza Bydgoszcz respectively), even winning one of those two games. In fact, Dolcan Zabki have notched up two consecutive wins ahead of this game so they’ve got momentum at the right time of the season and it’ll take a braver man than me to oppose them today as a result.
Visitors Arka Gdynia are the bigger and better side but this is not an easy game for them. Arka don’t have a good away record in Liga 1 but then again, hardly any sides do, primarily due to the horrendous state of most Liga 1 pitches. Arka avoid defeat quite well on the road, however, and that’s rather instrumental in earning promotion to the Ekstraklasa. Still, I doubt that they’ll manage it – the sides above them are better than they are and they’d love to meet Lechia Gdansk in this division next season, which looks likely to occur with Lechia’s recent form. Quality-wise, Arka are the superior team but will they be today? I’m not so sure – there are some problems and question marks over the team today that has virtually convinced me that Arka won’t win this game. Macedonian forward Ivanovski is absent, as is Arka’s best defender Mazurkiewicz. Indeed, on the “doubtful” list are another regular defender in Krajanowski and essential attacking midfielder Benat. Arka are already operating without a couple of important players but if those doubts turn into “definitely not playing” then the hosts have a huge chance to punish their opponents here.
Given the importance of this game, I have to expect the hosts to be as motivated for this one as they have been for the past few. They’re strong enough mentally and have enough momentum to win this game, in my view. Given that Arka are the superior side, I will cover this selection with draw no bet but if Arka are missing as many players as I expect them to be then the hosts have a golden chance to secure three points today.
Verdict: Dolcan Zabki to win with draw no bet at evens.
Additional game
Piast Gliwice vs Olimpia Elblag – away win with +1.5 handicap at 5/6.
This is taking a bit of a risk so ensure that you approach it with caution! However, I do fancy it and I’ll explain why.
Firstly, this game means a lot to Olimpia Elblag. It’s unlikely that they’re going to avoid the drop but if they’re going to then they need as many wins as they can muster. They’ve demonstrated that by attacking more since returning from the winter break and they’ve nearly caused a few upsets, too, to their credit. Olimpia do tend to score in most of their away games so let’s give them some credit instead of just ruling them as “shit” because they’re bottom of the table.
Another factor is that Piast Gliwice are one of the biggest sides in the division. Whether Olimpia believe that they can avoid the drop or not shouldn’t matter here as they should be motivated to do well against a big side. Piast is a big scalp to claim and their fans would no doubt remember it if they were to be relegated.
Player-wise, Olimpia are missing their most frequently used striker this season in Kolodziejski although the fact that he’s not scored in seventeen games makes it not so important, in my eyes. Olimpia brought in Chalas from Zawisza Bydgoszcz in the transfer window and he’s bagged four in five so he’s the kind of forward I want on the field today! Midfielder Kazmarczyk also misses out, which is a blow, but it’s do or die for Olimpia and I expect them to work harder than ever to make up the numbers today.
However, if you thought that Olimpia had a few injury concerns then it’s nothing compared to the array of players that Piast are missing! I mean, we can look at their recent form and at how unconvincingly they’ve played of late, conceding in three consecutive home games. They drew at home against the worst away side in Liga 1 – Gornik Polkowice – and I don’t see how they’re going to improve on that today. Piast are good on the road with their counter-attacks but really tend to struggle when it comes to breaking through their opponents at home.
Let’s get down to it, though! Who is out for Piast? Well, first of all, the star of their attack (Ruben Jurado) misses this game through injury, which is a huge blow. On top of that, we have Piast’s most consistent performer in Slovakian attacking midfielder Urban, who is also out today. Regular youngster Matras at the heart of the defence is suspended and two more very regular midfielders Krzycki and Zganiacz miss out too. Now, don’t get me wrong here – Podgorski and Kedziora are the ones who are the most important players to Piast’s attack alongside Jurado and they’re both available. Therefore, I will not rule out a Piast win here. After all, they are the superior side. However, what I would say is that Piast are not Barcelona – they’re missing five regular starters and I don’t think that they can handle that today. They may well score a goal or two but I thoroughly expect them to concede at least once and perhaps may not even win the game if they fail to take their chances, which is their usual routine. It’s a risk, as I said earlier, but Piast are there for the taking, in my view.
One final point – if you give the away side a +1.5 handicap against Piast for every home game that they’ve played in Liga 1 this season then Piast would have won just two games. Anyone else think that the visitors have a better chance than the odds suggest here?
Verdict: Olimpia Elblag to win with +1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Barcelona – Abidal and Villa are absent. Keita and Afellay are doubts.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Minior Pernik – Iliev is absent. Game pulled from betting sites due to Minior Pernik stating that they’re play their “B” team for the remainder of the season due to a disagreement with the Bulgarian FA.
Ludogorets – Marcelinho is a doubt.
Cherno More Varna – Kolev, Palominho, Yanev, and Atanasov are doubts.
Kaliakra – Raichev is absent. Zakov returns.
Levski Sofia – Mitrev, Tasevski, and Gadzhev are absent. Greene has left.
Chernomorets Burgas – Fo-Pore and Dyankov return. Terziev is a doubt.
Montana – Gadzhev and Iliev are doubts.
Litex Lovech – Tsvetkov is absent.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti – Rafael, Taulo, Makitalo, Kemppinen, Heinonen, Mero, and Grossohmichen are absent.
FC Honka Espoo – Rexhepi is absent.
Greek Super League:
AEK Athens – Manolas returns. Dellas, Sialmas, Kontoes, Rikka, and Gudjohnsen are absent.
Atromitos – Garcia and Sfakianakis are absent.
Asteras Tripolis – No absentees.
Panathinaikos – Leto, Rudolf, Zeka, Owusu-Abeyie, Katsouranis, Simao, Vyntra, Ioannis, Bjarsmyr, and Kotsolis are absent.
Ergotelis – Leal and Darlas return. Athanasiou, Dermitzakis, Romano, Xrysofakis, Kandilkas, and Evaggelou are absent.
Levadiakos – Mendy, Melisas, and Lisgaras are absent.
Kerkyra – Tsigkas is absent.
OFI Crete – Veron, Sisic, Kalazic, Georgiou, Kapantis, and Papouli are absent.
Panaitolikos – Roca, Andy, and Mitropoulos are absent.
Aris Salonika – Castillo, Ubides, Diko, Kasnaferis, and Papastegianos are absent. Giantsis returns.
Panionios – Rovas is absent.
Xanthi – Valas and Fliskas are absent.
PAOK Salonika – Ivic and Balafas return. Lazar and Fotakis are absent.
Doxa Dramas – No absentees.
PAS Giannina – Tzimopoulos and Kotsios are absent.
Olympiakos Piraeus – Ibagaza, Mellberg, and Makoun are absent. Diogo and Fetfatzidis return.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Tauras Taurage – No news.
Dainava – No news.
Siauliai – Mushnikov, Rimkevicius are absent.
Zalgiris Vilnius – No absentees.
Ekranas Panevezys – Andelkovic is absent.
Banga Gargzdai – No news.
Polish Liga 1:
Dolcan Zabki – Piesio is absent.
Arka Gdynia – Krajanowski, Mazurkiewicz, and Benet are doubts. Radosavljevic, Ivanovski, and Brodzinski are absent.
Kolejarz Stroze – Szufryn is a doubt.
Wisla Plock – Kaminski is absent.
Flota Swinoujscie – Chyla and Nnamani return.
Polonia Bytom – No news.
Ruch Radzionkow – Mroz and Muszalik are absent.
Pogon Szczecin – Sotirovic and Hernani are doubts.
Nieciecza – No news.
Sandecja Nowy Sacz – Boss Moskal watches this game from the stands.
Gornik Polkowice – No news.
Katowice – No news.
Bogdanka Leczna – Bartoszewicz is absent.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz – Geworgian, Oleksy, and Jankowski are absent.
Olimpia Grudziadz – No news.
Warta Poznan – Bartkowiak and Magdziarz are absent.
Piast Gliwice – Docekal, Cuerda, Ruben Jurado, Urban, Matras, Zganiacz, and Krzycki are absent.
Olimpia Elblag – Szamotulski, Kaczmarczyk, Sulima, and Kolodziejski are absent.