TFT Issue 375!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
JJK Jyvaskyla vs Haka Valkeakoski – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the game between JJK Jyvaskyla and Haka Valkeakoski in central Finland.
JJK are one of my favourite teams in the Veikkausliiga as I enjoy their carefree attacking style. Few sides attack more than JJK do and few sides can match their outstanding midfield, which is the predominant reason behind them scoring so many goals. I mean, Wusu is a great asset to this JJK team but would they really score so many goals if he had only a single chance per game? Not a prayer! He’d not hit five goals in a season, I assure you!
No, midfield is very much the core of all of JJK’s games because their defence is terrible. I was impressed that they managed to hold on to Gruborovics, Manninen etc. pre-season as it gives them a platform to build on for this season. Sadly, Manninen got an injury last match and won’t play in this game as a result. Still, JJK have plenty of good attacking players and they’ll always score goals whilst Gruborovics is playing.
The success of this tip will hinge upon when JJK get the first goal. You see, it takes a while to break through stuborrn Haka as they’re well-organised defensively and are real battlers. If your side is playing without confidence and/or effort then they simply won’t beat Haka, no matter how good the side in question may be.
However, JJK are a lot better than Haka and I’m hopeful that they’ll get that key early goal. Hell, they’re going to need it because Estonian defender Reintam is still out and you saw what happened last match when he didn’t play. JJK’s defence is questionable at the best of times but he’s the best of the lot so even defensive Haka can bag a goal or two against JJK today.
Woe betide them if they do, though. Not many sides leave Jyvaskyla with anything but a whipped backside and I think we may see that occur today. If Haka push out to abandon their defensive shape then they’ll be torn to bits. Puustinen was a decent signing for the visitors as his pace can trouble JJK on counter-attacks and Haka do have some rather talented creative players in their ranks so they could spring a surprise here.
That said, Haka were woeful against Lahti in their opening Veikkausliiga game so it depends which Haka shows up today!
Either way, I favour over 2.5 goals massively here. I favour that in almost all JJK games, to be honest. The odds are usually about 4/6, however, which is why 9/10 appeals to me a lot. Additionally, the recent weather has left a lot of wet pitches behind and mistakes can happen, especially with long ball sides like Haka and free-flowing passing sides like JJK. I don’t see any value on the 1×2 market – maybe a shade of value in the -1 AH for the hosts – but over 2.5 goals is right up my street today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
TPS Turku vs HJK Helsinki – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
This battle promises to be a very interesting one in one way or another. It’s a repeat of the Liiga Cup Final from a couple of weeks ago, which ended 1-1 with TPS Turku ultimately winning the encounter on penalties. Did we learn anything from that game? No, not really. Did we learn anything from the Liiga Cup at all? No, as per usual, so please don’t read anything into head-to-head statistics when they’re Liiga Cup games!
TPS Turku have a very strong side this season. Now, when I say that, I mean that they’ve got a good chance of finishing second in the sense that HJK are expected to win the Veikkausliiga and they most likely will. However, TPS Turku have their fair share of talented players and it shows. They’ll miss Riski, of course, whose loan deal expired. However, Aaritalo is leading the line, Kolehmainen is pulling the strings, Lahde is causing problems, and Tanska is holding the line together. For me, that’s a pretty damn good core. They will struggle if any of the afore-mentioned get injured, in my view, but they’re a side to be respected.
However, the 0-1 defeat against MyPa in their opening Veikkausliiga game proved two things. One is that the turf of the Paavo Nurmi is going to take some getting used to (the Veritas is in such bad condition that they won’t be using it until drastic improvement has been made) and the other is that TPS are remarkably inept at breaking sides down. Counter-attacking them works beautifully for TPS; they have the perfect combination for that method with a solid defence and a pacey attack. Breaking sides down, though – that’s not going too well for them.
Can they beat HJK today? Sure they can. HJK are a side that will attack them and that really does suit TPS. However, HJK have a marginally better side and thus I can’t recommend taking on the 1×2 market here. HJK proved very little in their opening Veikkausliiga game other than that Muurinen makes them as efficient as hell. They did fuck all for the majority of the game with IFK Mariehamn and then brought the next Teemu Pukki on (Joel Pohjanpolo), who promptly bagged the quickest hat-trick ever recorded and HJK won the game. He’s quick and a good finisher and yes, the scouts have already been flocking to see him, the most recent of which are allegedly from Liverpool. Let’s hope that they don’t get him, though – we all saw what happened to Lauri Dalla Valle! HJK are going to need this kid to bail them out up front for a while, though – big Sadik has an injury and Pelvas is a doubt for this game. Still, he’s good enough to cause problems and his movement is surprisingly good for a lad as young as he is. Demba Savage will take a bit of time to settle but he’s one of the best forwards in the Veikkausliiga and will prove to be a valuable acquisition for HJK, I am quite sure. Sorsa and Zeneli on the flanks, Perovuo through the middle, and Okkonen in front of the back four is a good enough line-up today, if indeed that’s how Muurinen plays it. Yeah, it’s not a patch on last year’s line-up but it’s a good Veikkausliiga line-up, although HJK are worryingly just starting to look like they’ve signed all the players that were too good to stay at Honka! There are match-winners in this HJK side, though, and that’s important, especially at this early stage of the season. Their defence is going to take some time to get to know one another again with on-loan defender Woodbine having returned to VPS Vaasa and Lahti having only been there for half-a-year or so. The talent is in this HJK squad but give them a few weeks before backing them blindly again because I expect them to concede a good number of goals at the start, which could cost them with a “new” attack on show.
However, I expect a game with goals here because the ingredients are right for it to occur. HJK score goals when they attack, by foul means or by fair, and TPS score goals when they’re attacked. Both sides have lots of quality and both sides want to get a good start. The last thing TPS want to do is exit this game already six points behind HJK in the title race so this game should mean a lot to them. Indeed, the odds on the home win are tempting but I can’t substantiate backing TPS at this stage of the season against HJK. However, over 2.5 goals looks really appealing at 11/10 with the above in mind.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Do I really need to preview this one? Athletic Bilbao can drag any side into an over 2.5 goals game and Sporting are no exception. Sporting finally have a finisher in van Wolfswinkel, which has at last made all their possession count for something. They’re not the most free-flowing of Portuguese sides but they will concede here and they need to win to have a chance of progressing so chances are that this game will clear 2.5 goals. Javi Martinez is out for Bilbao as he’s suspended. He won’t be missed from the role that he should be playing because he’s not played there for ages. He will be missed at centre-back, however, primarily because nobody passes the ball as well as he does around the pitch from his deep-lying position. San Jose or Ekiza can step into his position and defend better than he did – that’s not in question – but Bielsa wants his side’s football to flow and neither of them do that as well as Martinez. Therefore, we have to expect a more mobile midfield on show, something like Susaeta, de Marcos, Herrera, Iturraspe, and Muniain (if passed fit) supporting big Llorente up top with a more regimented back four of Iraola, Amorebieta, Aurtenexte, and probably San Jose. If there’s no Martinez then I expect a wider game from Athletic, which will see Iraola and Aurtenexte push on a lot more, and thus leave gaps. Bilbao’s defence isn’t hard to breach either way so hosts Sporting could and really should score goals here. However, I don’t see the defensive capabilities for them to withstand a barrage of attacks from their Basque opponents and thus this game is already 1-1 in my head, thus leaving a high probability of the game going over 2.5 goals.
I don’t know what else to write, really. Athletic attack an awful lot and Sporting will capitalise on that. Athletic attack a lot for a reason, though – it’s because they’re bloody good at it. For me, over 2.5 goals is a steal at 9/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
Athletic Club de Bilbao – J.Martinez, Gurpegi, Ocio, and Castillo are absent. Muniain is a doubt.
Atletico Madrid – Antonio Lopez, Silvio, Merida, and Godin are absent.
Valencia CF – Banega is absent. Soldado returns.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Svetkavitsa – Georgiev is absent.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Lazarov, De Carvalho, Dakson, Rodrigues, and V.Georgiev are absent.
Slavia Sofia – Aikoshi is absent.
CSKA Sofia – Paun is absent. Popov returns.
Montana – Gadzhev and Iliev are absent.
Litex Lovech – Tsvetkov is absent.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
IFK Mariehamn – Okodugha is absent. Gadzo is a doubt.
KuPS Kuopio – Hynynen, Kupiainen, Voutilainen, Joenmaki, and Tabe are absent. Nissinen returns. Puri is a doubt.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Manninen, Reintam, and Korte are absent.
Haka Valkeakoski – Pesonen is absent.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Saxman is a doubt.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Aho, Brunell, and Haanpaa are absent. Aalto, Grove, Sara, and Wargh return.
TPS Turku – No news.
HJK Helsinki – Sadik is absent. Pelvas, Kansikas, and Moren are doubts. Ashraf may debutise.
VPS Vaasa – Henriksson, Koskimaa, and Bjork are absent.
Inter Turku – Parviainen, Diallo, and Gnabouyou are absent. Sirbiladze is a doubt.