TFT Issue 385!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Manchester City vs Manchester United – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Well, this is the big game that everyone’s been waiting for – it’s the Manchester derby that will effectively decide the title. There are still two games remaining for both teams after this game but to me, whichever side gets something from this game will win the league as they’ll have the momentum and the ability to beat their remaining opponents.
Now, this should be a very interesting game because neither side can hide behind the fear to lose, which has often ruined this derby over the past few years. This time, City must win and United must avoid defeat so I expect a much more open game than the usual cagey affair that we tend to see between these two sides when they meet at the Ettihad.
So, who should I put my money on to win? Well, if you’re going to bet on a winner in this game then I simply can’t help you because I see no value whatsoever. I think the odds on City winning are marginally short but the odds are jumping all over the place as virtually the entire world wades in with its opinion. You can make arguments for or against either side doing the business (e.g. City’s resurgence with mercenary Tevez, United’s experience, revenge, the “bottling it” factor etc.) but I just have no interest in this market because any result could happen here, in my opinion.
The market which captures my attention is the over 2.5 goals market. Some bookies have dropped the odds to around 8/11 or 4/6, which is pretty wise, in my view. However, some are holding a higher line at 4/5 and that’s where the value is today. I think you could make a case for City’s recent displays perhaps not having been as good as the scorelines suggest that they’ve been but what has been massively improved is their conversion rate. A few weeks earlier, City were losing confidence because they weren’t taking their chances and thus the pressure on them defending well is increased because they needed the points and City bottled it, essentially. Bizarrely enough, the return of someone who should no longer be playing football at a professional level – Tevez – has inspired the team and they’ve started scoring goals again. Not just goals, but very good goals; good team goals to boot. Defensively, if you get at City, then they’re vulnerable. If you had all the money in the world to spend and would happily put Lescott in the central pairing of your defence then I’d call you a fool. Kompany is a class act but I feel sorry for him sometimes because aside from Hart, the poor fella is on his own most of the time with headless chickens all around him. Therefore, I do think that we’ll see City conceding in this game, as they have four times against Manchester United already this season.
However, Manchester United are more than capable of conceding goals against Manchester City too. I mean, the 1-6 scoreline at Old Trafford earlier this season flattered City but let’s face it – City did deserve to win the game and they do have the firepower to score goals against United again. City will be over the moon to see United defending like clowns of late, which has been a bit of a puzzling change around in fortune. What puzzles me is that United’s defence have a good starting position whenever they’re attacked and yet as soon as the ball goes into the box, their composure deserts them and we see two players going for the same ball or someone not doing their job and United concede as a result. No disrespect to Everton, but how else could they have scored four goals at Old Trafford without the above? It’s not like United to bottle it and thus I’m a little hesitant to say that that’s the case. However, United are vulnerable at the back right now for whatever reason and they can concede goals here. At the other end of the field, though, I’ll be amazed if City can keep out the lightning acceleration of Valencia, the skill of Nani, and the strength of Rooney, all of which I expect to start the game. Let’s not forget that United have more local lads playing for them than City do right now and this game could mean more to the Premier League champions rather than their opponents.
Still, that’s heading more toward the eventual winners of the game and I just can’t get drawn into that aspect of this game because I genuinely don’t know what will happen. I think United can totally overrun City down the flanks with their dominant wingers and I think that City could totally overrun United through the middle of the park because they’re much more mobile in that area of the pitch. It’s going to come down to which side holds their nerve the most and although I would favour United in that equation, I simply cannot endorse anyone backing a winner in this game.
Can you see this game ending without both sides scoring, though? It’s not happened yet this season and I don’t think it’ll start now. In my head, that makes this scoreline 1-1 before kick-off and therefore taking over 2.5 goals at 4/5 in the most important game of the season for both sides looks the most sensible way to approach this game from a betting perspective.
Verdic: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
Viktoria Plzen vs Slavia Prague – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
I can get evens on Viktoria Plzen beating the -1.5 handicap at home in the Gambrinus Liga? Really? Ok, count me in!
The Gambrinus Liga title is beyond Viktoria Plzen now due to some shoddy displays since returning from the winter break but they need to finish the job properly to ensure that they’re at least playing UEFA Europa League football next season because Mlada Boleslav are in inspired form right now and they’re only six points behid. A win today would realistically see off their challenge and in many ways, this is the perfect game for Viktoria Plzen.
First of all, Viktoria Plzen don’t like being under pressure. That’s not a great surprise, I guess – not many sides do. However, what I mean by that is that most big sides will expoit pressure with good counter-attacks and although Plzen are most definitely capable of doing that, I tend to find that they’re at their best when they’re simply allowed to play, which is precisely what I expect to happen here.
When you allow Plzen to play, you’re allowing the side with the highest goals-per-game ratio for home games in the Gambrinus Liga this season to do what they do best and you don’t need me to tell you what that is. They average scoring over two goals per home game and with Kolar, Pilar, and Petrzela being the legs that playmaker Horvath no longer has, Plzen have a very effective attack. Wagner hasn’t settled in as he’d have liked up front but Duris and Bakos are linking up well and that’s enough for Plzen. They bring great momentum into this game with five wins from their last six games and given that they’ve amazingly only conceded in one game during that run, you really feel that they’ve got more than enough to win this one today too.
Slavia Prague just want this season to be over. They’ve had issue after issue with fan protests against the takeover, the perilous financial state of the club, and a real lack of talent in the squad, just to name a few. Slavia Prague need to start a-fresh over the Summer and they can count their lucky stars that they’re going to be a Gambrinus Liga side next season because frankly, they don’t deserve to be. You could say that it’s a little careless of me to say that Slavia Prague won’t be relegated whilst it’s a mathematical possibility but I just can’t see Banik Ostrava winning all of their remaining games and thus Slavia should be safe.
Performance-wise, Slavia Prague just don’t present an attacking threat nowadays. Some sides are unlucky in front of goal and some need a finisher but Slavia Prague just don’t create enough chances to be unlucky. They lack creativity in midfield and they lack a good finisher in their squad. Some players are too old, such as Vicek and Hubacek, and some are too young, such as Hurka. Slava Prague are fortunate the Trebila has been a success in defence this season or their goals conceded record would be much worse than it is. Their recent form would indicate that their defensive displays are improving but tha’s simply not the case; they’ve just faced some impotent and rather poor sides of late. Slavia Prague have played eleven games in 2012 and they’ve managed to score in just four of them, which is absolutely shocking. In their defence, it’s not often that they’re torn apart by opponents but their lethargic and ineffectual displays make it a very real possibility for the right opponent.
In my opinion, Plzen are the right opponent to exploit this transitional and vulnerable Slavia Prague side. Plzen are more than capable of scoring two or three goals here and thus I think that they’ll beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
JJK Jyvaskyla vs VPS Vaasa – over 2.5 goals at evens.
I’m a big advocate of JJK Jyvaskyla and normally 9/10 on their home win would seem like a gift but for the warning in my mind of how much of a bogey side VPS are for them. JJK have beaten VPS on just two occasions out of their last seven meetings and considering that JJK have been a much better side than VPS for at least two years now, that’s simply not good enough.
Therefore, I’m avoiding the 1×2 market, much as though my bias makes me want to take the home win. I have to respect the fact that VPS Vaasa are a good defensive unit and they affect sides on the counter-attack. VPS do have problems up front, which is why they seldom score goals at home. When it comes to breaking sides down, VPS are horribly ineffectual. However, when it comes to counter-attacks, this VPS team isn’t bad at all and I think that they could upset JJK today.
JJK have a better side and their midfield is arguably the best in the Veikkausliiga for my money. Their defence is definitely not the best in the division, however! They could do with a couple more players in attack but their midfield is more than good enough to win any game for JJK, just as they did in Espoo lately. However, JJK aren’t firing on all cylinders just yet and thus I’m cautious about what to expect from them from a 1×2 perspective. Just look what happened when they took on inferior Haka Valeakoski – they were crushed 1-5 in their own backyard! I don’t intend to be on the receiving end of that heavy hit to the bank balance again so let’s sit on the fence and observe them for now.
Given that VPS parted with a large number of core players pre-season, especially in defence, I expect them to ship more goals in this campaign than they usually do. Their goalkeeper is a constant issue as nobody really knows who VPS’ number one actually is. However, VPS are a plucky side and they motivate themselves well for the big games. I don’t envision them being good enough to keep JJK out here but I do think that they’re able to score themselves, which isn’t something that they’re notorious for. JJK really are that bad at the back!
The odds are nose-diving on the under 2.5 goals selection and I can understand that. Most people expect a low-scoring win for JJK because VPS are likely to “park the bus” but I don’t see it developing that way. It only takes an early goal from JJK to upset that idea and even an early goal for VPS can do that as JJK will not hold back if that happens. In my eyes, taking over 2.5 goals in any JJK game is an absolute steal at evens and thus that’s my call today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
Bulgarian A PFG:
Svetkavitsa – Stoyanov is absent.
Vidma-Rakovski – Kolev and Ignatov are absent.
Litex Lovech – Milanov is absent.
Lokomotiv Sofia – P.Petkov and J.Petkov are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg – Mikkelsen and Flinta are absent.
OB Odense – Traore, Djemba-Djemba, Mendy, Regniussen, and H.H.Andreasen are absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – No absentees.
Maccabi Netanya – Dajani is absent. Binyamin returns.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Wisla Krakow – Probierz will not reveal any team news.
Cracovia Krakow – Suvorov is absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Rinaudo is absent. Matias Fernandez is a doubt.
Academica de Coimbra – Cabral, Flavio, Pape Sow, Reiner Ferreira, Eder, Diogo Gomes, and Orlando are absent.