TFT Issue 389!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Slovan Liberec vs Slovacko – home win to nil at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the Gambrinus Liga encounter between league leaders Slovan Liberec and middle-of-the-table-dwelling Slovacko.
Slovan Liberec somewhat surprisingly find themselves top of the Gambrinus Liga table with a very good chance of winning it and full speed ahead to them, I say. Although they don’t possess a better squad than Sparta Prague or Viktoria Plzen, they’ve looked very enthusiastic for the majority of this season and have been extremely good at creating chances and scoring goals. What more do you need? They’ve not had European football to deal with, unlike their title rivals, and that has played a part. Still, Slovan Liberec are a good side and I think they deserve it if they manage it.
Boss Silhavy says that Slovan Liberec win the league if they win two more games. Mathematically, that’s very true, although I think there’s more to what he said, if I’m honest. This game with Slovacko is one that Slovan Liberec must win. They’ve got a horrible trip to under-achieving-but-forever-dangerous Jablonec and a home game with a very good Viktoria Plzen side remaining so they’re not easy fixtures, even though Slovan are playing well. Therefore, I expect them to put on a very good display today. They’re going to have to be very efficient today because the star of the team – Slovakian midfielder Breznanik – is out. The experience of Stajner, the skill of playmaker Bosancic, and the movement of forward Rabusic should still be enough to see Slovan Liberec win this game but I would certainly lay off the handicaps as Breznanik is very much a key part of this team.
Let’s give some credit to Slovacko here, guys. They’re not an entertaining side and they’re not an interesting side but they’re bloody well-organised and only a fool underestimates them because of it. Their defence has experience and their midfield has looked good this season, despite their youthful age. There’s a good balance in there with captain Valenta showing Hlupik and Pavelka how it’s done. Slovacko are not an easy side to beat, essentially. Only Sparta Prague have been harder to score against away from home in the Gambrinus Liga this season!
The down side to Slovacko is that they have no ambition and no attacking power. They’ve got a very obvious attacking threat as Libor Dosek is about as subtle as an air raid when it comes to attacking. In case you’re not familiar with this guy, he stands at about 6″7″ and has the turning circle of a Boeing 747. Guess what he’s good at? Yes, you got it – chess winning the ball in the air! It’s hard to give him the option to score without a committed and creative attack and Slovacko don’t have the quality nor the desire for that to happen, especally away from home. Therefore, I really don’t expect Slovacko to score here.
The question is whether Slovan Liberec can score or not. I think that they will as they’ve got enough options to manage it but I anticipate a tighter game than the bookies do. I would not touch the handicap in this game as Slovan could take ages to break through, just as they did against Viktoria Zizkov, and the defeat wouldn’t have been as big had the visitors in that game not been reduced to ten men. I expect a 1-0 or 2-0 at most but either way, taking Slovan to win to nil appeals to me at 10/11.
Verdict: Slovan Liberec to win to nil at 10/11.
Additional games
Piast Gliwice vs Flota Swinoujscie – home win at 4/5.
Well, Liga 1’s Piast Gliwice have their usual lengthy list of absentees but I feel more confident in them winning today than normal. Every game is a must-win for them right now for obvious reasons and I expect them to manage it today.
It’s Piast’s defence that tends to concern me but against a drastically out-of-form Flota Swinoujscie, I am not too concerned about Piast’s defence. Flota are not a potent side to begin with, although don’t be misled into thinking that they’re not a good side because they are. The only reason they’ve not lost a lot of games lately is due to their ability to frustrate sides, though. They’re not attacking well and not scoring goals. Some sides go on these runs purely through bad luck but Flota are playing uninspired football right now and with little motivation for anything else, I don’t see that changing today.
In my opinion, this game boils down to whether Piast can score or not. If they do, then I expect them to win as Flota are doing nothing up front right now. You can point out that Piast miss two influential players in the form of Urban and Podgorski in midfield but to me, there’s more than enough going forward for Piast to score goals here, especially in Kedziora and Jurado.
In my opinion, Piast are good enough to score here and if they manage it then I expect them to win the game. Given the magnitude of this game and the firepower that Piast have, taking the home win at 4/5 is appealing today.
Verdict: Piast Gliwice to win at 4/5.
Kalmar FF vs GAIS Goteborg – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
You will almost never see me going against Kalmar at the Gudsfageln but today is an exception and it’s for no reason other than that GAIS are playing really good football at the moment.
The thing is with GAIS is that they only turn it on against the big clubs, in my experience. Whether they class Kalmar as a big club or not remains to be seen because Kalmar are only good at home. However, I can’t overlook that GAIS have been very unlucky of late and they’re due a strong result.
I personally hate the reasoning that a side is “due a result” because it’s generally bullshit. I mean, technically speaking, San Marino are “due a result” on the international stage but that’s not likely to happen for a long, long time. So what I mean when I say that GAIS are “due a result” is that they’re playing well enough to get it but have unfortunately encountered sides that have either been very lucky or have been better sides. For example, they somehow outplayed Elfsborg in Boras lately and lost 2-1. They outplayed Helsingborg on the road but drew due to a red card. They outplayed Djurgarden at home but couldn’t convert their chances. GAIS are edging toward that pivotal result, though, and I think that they can get it here.
Let’s face it – Wanderson is simply unplayable right now and the return of striker Celik to the starting line-up gives GAIS an additional dimension up front. Cameroonian engine Bassombeng is rested for this game because he has a fever but GAIS have strength in midfield either way. Wanderson and Celik can and will score/produce goals one way or another, though, and I really think that GAIS are good enough to get a result here today.
I’ve not heard any team news from the Kalmar side of things so I don’t know how they’re set here. All I know is that they’ve not been convincing at all so far this season, which encourages me with this bet. I suppose some of it has to come down to Bergstrand not knowing who his starting eleven are. How can a side do well without knowing that? There’s not much cohesion because of it and their belief level suffers too.
Just look at the games that Kalmar have already fucked up in this season. They lost at home against Gefle in their last home game, whom Kalmar are twice as good as. Why did they lose? Another goalkeeping error from Berisha and because Gefle worked harder than Kalmar did. There was no other reasoning for it! If Kalmar are going to make a mess of things whenever someone outworks them then they’re in for a very long season. They lost at home against AIK because Berisha fucked up and because AIK were better-organised than Kalmar. Hell, they only beat Hacken because Hacken capitulated due to thinking that they’re better than they actually are. Kalmar have no confidence in coming from behind at any stage and they will usually concede more if they concede the first goal.
Add all that up and we have an under-achieving Kalmar side and a GAIS side that looks awful on the statistics front but are playing deceptively well. I’m hoping that this is one of those times where actually watching the games pays off rather than looking at the statistics front because GAIS should really be winning this game, based on the displays of both sides over the past few weeks. For me, there’s potentially an awful lot of value in the away win with draw no bet cover at 11/10, even on a Friday, which are generally awful days for betting!
Verdict: GAIS Goteborg to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Team news
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovan Liberec – Breznanik and Vacha are absent.
Slovacko – Fujerik is absent.
English Championship:
Blackpool – Cathcart is absent.
Birmingham City – Carr, Fahey, Caldwell, and Myhill are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Pecsi MFC – No news.
Diosgyori VTK – Rados, Gal, and Nagy are absent.
Polish Liga 1:
Olimpia Elblag – No news.
Gornik Polkowice – No news.
Warta Poznan – Bartowiak returns.
Dolcan Zabki – No news.
Piast Gliwice – Cuerda, Krzycki, Trela, Urban, Docekal, and Podgorski are absent. Bzdega returns.
Flota Swinoujscie – No absentees.
Polonia Bytom – No news.
Bogdanka Leczna – Tymosiak and Renusz are absent.
Romanian Liga:
FC Brasov – Bruno Madeira and Enceanu are absent. Buga is a doubt.
Vointa Sibiu – Majer, Cr.Apostol, and Miclea are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Kalmar FF – No news.
GAIS Goteborg – Bassombeng is absent. Celik returns.