TFT Issue 392!
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Featured game
Elfsborg Boras vs IFK Goteborg – home win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan heavyweight encounter between Elfsborg Boras and IFK Goteborg.
In a way, Elfsborg have been immaculate so far this season. I think that their away games have benefited them in terms of the turf that they’ve played on but they’ve been absolutely ruthless in front of goal and when a side like Elfsborg is playing well, everyone else should be afraid because they possess one of the best squads in Sweden right now. Six wins from seven Allsvenskan games brings Elfsborg into this game with bags of confidence and the form of Nilssen up front is so impressive that boss Lennartsson can rotate both Elm and Jawo as he sees fit without there being any problems. Svensson, Hult, Claesson, Ishizaki, Hiljemark, Jorgensen – it doesn’t matter who they field; Elfsborg have been superb this season. That’s not to say that they can’t be stopped from playing because a couple of sides have outplayed them in Boras already this season, namely GAIS Goteborg and Djurgarden. However, Elfsborg have simply been much better in front of goal than either side and have subsequently won the games. What can you do against a side like that? Elfsborg are playing like champions and having viewed their rivals at great length, I would not be surprised to see them win the title this season.
IFK Goteborg are probably their main title challengers along with Malmo. However, IFK are still having some problems with blending their new players in and it’s causing problems. Although IFK can arguably match Elfsborg for quality, what they don’t have is Elfsborg’s cohesion and that is a big problem on a stage like this. IFK can occasionally turn things around against lesser sides and win games without playing well but if they take on a good side like Elfsborg with their usual approach then they’re going to lose this game. IFK have not been convincing in defence this season for obvious reasons and their attack is somewhat temperamental. You could make a case for Tobias Hysen being the best forward in Sweden but IFK struggle to forge attacks without their old hands (e.g. Selakovic) on the field and they really don’t like being put under pressure, either – they tend to give up the ball and then give up the game in their minds. The lack of cohesion that IFK have at the moment does affect their mentality and thus I do think that IFK will fall apart at some stage during this game. If this game was 2 months down the line then we might see a different scoreline as IFK are a very good side on paper. However, they’ll have to be better than they’ve been at any stage this season to get a result in Boras, in my view.
The artificial turf at the Boras Arena favours the hosts and with strong momentum behind them, you have to favour Elfsborg to beat unconvincing IFK Goteborg at evens, especially with Selakovic out today.
Verdict: Elfsborg Boras to win at evens.
Additional games
Viikingit Helsinki vs PK-35 Helsinki – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
In my view, PK-35 are priced just a little too short for my liking, especially for a derby. PK-35 signed some good players pre-season and will definitely be in the battle for promotion from the Ykkonen this season. However, I think people may be reading too much into their magnificent 9-0 demolition of Hameenlinna recently. PK-35 still have a lot of new faces that will need time to settle in. Hameenlinna are not a very good side and PK-35 caught them on an especially bad day. Things went PK-35’s way so hats off to them. However, Viikingit will be a much harder opponent for them for varying reasons, including the fact that this is a derby game. Viikingit aren’t as strong this season as they have been in the past few seasons and thus I’m not so sure that they’ll be vying for promotion this season. We’ll have to see how it goes for them, really. However, they’re going to be up for this game and there’s not much between these two sides. Historically speaking, there is very little between these two sides too and there’s rarely any goals in these derbies.
Bear in mind that PK-35 haven’t beaten Viikingit since 2005 before considering whether to jump on the PK-35 bandwagon today. Admittedly, PK-35 arguably haven’t possessed as good players in the past as they do now but this will be a very tight game and I don’t see enough between the two sides to interest me in picking a winner. Therefore, my call is to take under 2.5 goals at 4/5, which would have won for the last five meetings between these two clubs.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
GAIS Goteborg vs Mjallby Solvesborg – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
GAIS did what I thought they’d do last match by outplaying Kalmar at a difficult venue so credit to them for that. However, luck is still against them and conceding two goals at an uncertain Kalmar side despite having a 0-1 lead is a bit unacceptable, really. GAIS have been composed at the back this season but they disappeared for a short while and Kalmar punished them.
GAIS are more than good enough to win this game and the odds on them winning it are tempting, I have to admit. However, I’m not going to do it as luck is not on their side and they’re not winning games as a result. Wanderson is looking better than ever, however, and that means that GAIS are in the mood for scoring goals. Indeed, Celik is easing back into the GAIS Goteborg ways and that’s always an ominous sign. I won’t back GAIS to win here though, as I’ve already said – the absence of Angus in defence is a big problem and the continued absence of Bassombeng removes GAIS’ authority in midfield. They’re still good enough to score goals but to keep sides out? I’m not so sure.
It’s pleasing to see Mjallby making waves in the Allsvenskan again after many people underestimated them. I don’t think anyone truly appreciates how good Mjallby’s attack actually is when they get going. Ericsson, Ekenberg, and especially Fejzullahu are all dangerous strikers. With the support of Radetinac, Nicklasson, and Dominiqui in midfield, Mjallby are surprisingly good at troubling their opponents and that’s precisely what I expect from them today. There’s plenty of experience in their squad although their downfall is the slow pace of their ageing defence. Mjallby have scored in five consecutive games and have only kept a clean sheet against newly-promoted Atvidaberg during that run so Mjallby are generally an over 2.5 goals side for the present time.
In my view, if GAIS play in this game as well as they have in their past few games, I think that their pace up front will damage Mjallby. However, GAIS look vulnerable at the back without Angus and Mjallby have plenty of attacking threats themselves. Therefore, taking over 2.5 goals appeals to me at long odds of 11/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Team news
Bulgarian A PFG:
Svetkavitsa – Iliev, Valev, and Shokolarov are absent.
Montana – Lichkov is absent.
CSKA Sofia – Trifonov,Bolade, and Ademar are absent. Karanchanakov and Moraes are doubts.
Botev Vratsa – No absentees.
Danish Superligaen:
SonderjyskE – Troest is absent. Ostli returns.
Midtylland – Bak Nielsen returns.
Finnish Ykkonen:
Viikingit Helsinki – Karkkainen, Koivu, Sarkkala, M.Lehtinen, and Hirvonen are absent. Rantanen is a doubt. Jama may debutise.
PK-35 Helsinki – Ikegwuonu, Oravainen, and Nyberg are absent. Sorja is a doubt.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atlantas – Zubavicius and D.Surblys are absent. Kymantas is a doubt.
Zalgiris Vilnius – No absentees.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Brann Bergen – Jonsson, El-Fakiri, Sokolowski, and Johus are absent.
Viking Stavanger – Bjordal, Cardozo, and Ingelsten are absent. Andersson is a doubt.
Scottish Premier League:
Hibernian – Galbraith, Griffiths, and Wotherspoon are absent. McPake and Soares are doubts.
Dunfermline Athletic – Keddie, Burns, Bell, Rutkiewicz, and Gallacher are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Orebro – Haddad and Saeid are absent.
Kalmar FF – Leci, Arajuuri, Sjostedt, Carlsson, Solheim, Dauda, Sacramento, Berisha, and Dragusha are absent.
GAIS Goteborg – Spong, Tamandi, Floren, Mujcic, Edstrom, Aubynn, Bassombeng, and Angus are absent.
Mjallby Solvesborg – No news.
Elfsborg Boras – No absentees.
IFK Goteborg – Sana and Selakovic are absent.