TFT Issue 394!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League Final between Spanish outfits Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club de Bilbao.
Atletico Madrid have performed superbly under Diego Simeone, who has rapidly instilled belief, composure, and efficiency into this side. I won’t say that they’re the finished article because there’s still a lot of work to do but Atletico look good; they’re a side to be way of. In Falcao, Atletico Madrid have arguably the best finisher on the planet for my money. His movement, his positioning, his finesse, and especially his ability to head the ball makes him a nightmare to play against. Put him against an Athletic defence that is half composed of midfielders and I think you’ll see him score at least once tonight. Atletico have Diego to support him and tricky winger Arda Turan on the flank so Falcao is not a one-man band here. Atletico have a lot of passion under Simeone and I have to say that I respect them a lot nowadays, something which I didn’t used to give them in the past.
Still, I have to favour my beloved Athletic Bilbao to do the job here. It won’t be easy but I’ve not seen a side this season that has been able to stop them playing their passing game. They have so much confidence under Bielsa and sides actually fear facing Los Leones because of it. They work hard, they battle for every ball, and they’re absolutely superb when they have it. To top that off, they have a full compliment of players available to them today, which helps them a lot. Athletic managed to rest a good number of first-team players in their last game and should have enough legs to do the damage toady, in my opinion.
Still, I can’t bring myself to actually back them to win this game other than as a biased fan’s bet. They’re too dodgy at the back and Atletico Madrid have some terrific attackers in their squad. However, I’m expecting a very entertaining and open game because neither side has the capability to nullify the other. I think we’ll see a decent number of cards and hopefully an Athletic victory but for me, over 2.5 goals is where the value lies at 9/10 as I can see both sides scoring and thus we only need another goal to win!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
Dukla Prague vs Sparta Prague – lay Sparta Prague at evens.
Oh dear, oh dear, Sparta Prague! As if you only managed to beat a bloody awful Bohemians 1905 side 1-0 last match! The game was never out of Sparta’s control but the game itself was the story of Sparta’s season; promised a lot but delivered very little. You could argue that Sparta wasted enough chances to have won the game a lot more convincingly but that’s them through and through right now; lacking in efficiency. I was really surprised that Sparta didn’t have the motivation to destroy Bohemians 1905 and the result of their nervous 1-0 win makes me think that they don’t have the mental strength to win this game today.
I mean, it’s a must-win game for Sparta, obviously, and they don’t look capable of handling pressure, to be honest. The quality is unquestionably there but the belief and cohesion just isn’t. There are doubts over Kweuke’s fitness today and whether he’s the star that he thinks he is or not is irrelevant; the fact remains that if anyone can produce something from nothing then it’s him and if he misses this game then they’re in a very bad position today. Sparta are a better side than Dukla but you have to bear in mind that this is Dukla’s cup final. Looking back, I’m almost certain that that’s the reason that they lost to an uncertain and unconvincing Teplice side so heavily at weekend as they were preparing for this game. Words alone cannot convey the hatred that Dukla have for Sparta and Slavia Prague respectively and thus it’s no surprise that Dukla haven’t lost against either Prague giant this season. In fact, Dukla haven’t conceded against either Prague giant this season as of yet, which should give you an idea of how hard they work in games like these. They’d absolutely love it if Slovan Liberec won the league because they upset Sparta Prague so expect a very motivated display from the hosts.
With that in mind, I have to view laying Sparta Prague as a great bet at evens, especially given their lacklustre and ineffectual displays of late.
Verdict: Lay Sparta Prague at evens.
Bogdanka Leczna vs Pogon Szczecin – home win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Oh dear, Pogon! You’ve certainly picked the wrong game to need to win at the as the season draws to a close, haven’t you? There simply hasn’t been a better home side in Liga 1 than Bogdanka Leczna this season, for my money. The only side to rival them for that title is Pogon Szczecin, ironically, but Leczna have won their games more efficiently and I admire that. Leczna need three points here to continue their promotion push and I think that they’ll get them too. After all, they’ve won four consecutive games at home ahead of this one, Leczna, and they’ve beaten some good sides along the way, too, bagging an impressive fourteen goals over those four games. The combination of Brazilian hitman Nildo and big Czech striker Pesir has been impressive, to say the least. Serbian Nikitovic in midfield has had a very good season, as has Luczak. Leczna have a lot of attacking options and I like that as they have an offensive power that not many Liga 1 sides have. That’s what Pogon have to contend with here, and I’m not sure how they’ll manage it. Pogon have done alright away from home because they’ve approached games in a smart manner, defending well and thus taking more draws than defeats. They were very smart indeed this season, Pogon, dominating their home games and playing shrewdly in their away games. However, they were a bit unlucky because both Piast and Nieciecza have better attacking options than they do and it showed in their away games. Well, I’m talking here as if Pogon have already been denied promotion to the Ekstraklasa, which isn’t the case. That said, I do think Pogon will fail this time as the sides above them look more impressive to me, not to mention more composed. Happily, Pogon have bottled their promotion push lately too, losing back-to-back games against Dolcan Zabki away and Kolejarz Stroze at home, both of which are frankly unacceptable. Their morale has dropped as a result and although Djousse, Sotirovic, and espiecally Andradina are very potent attacking options, I just don’t see how Pogon can win this game with such low morale and a lack of momentum to assist them. Bartosz Lawa’s experience for the visitors will be vital if they are to get something here but their defence hasn’t been good enough lately and they’ve got a very hard away game. They’re going to have to be very smart tactically today to prevent their superior hosts from beating them and based on their last two displays, I’m just not sure that Pogon can manage it.
Therefore, I can only see value in the home win with draw no bet cover at 4/5.
Verdict: Bogdanka Leczna to win with draw no bet at 4/5
Piast Gliwice vs Dolcan Zabki – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I like this one an awful lot, you know! Piast Gliwice are a very good side but they’ve developed a nasty habit of conceding stupid goals at home and today would be the perfect time for them to do that. I mean, Piast need to push to keep their hopes of an Ekstraklasa place next season whereas Dolcan Zabki need as many points as they can get to secure their place in Liga 1 next season so it’d be safe to say that we’re in for a fairly tense game today!
You don’t need me to tell you all that Piast are the better side here; the league table can accurately prove that, for a change. However, what I will cast some light on is why I’m going for over 2.5 goals here. The first reason is that Dolcan Zabki are playing with great fire and belief right now whereas Piast are a bottling side, at least in defence. That combination in itself should mean that the visitors at least score here and you won’t find many games where Piast don’t score at home either. Dolcan Zabki are not the best travellers but they’re a feisty side and that makes this a harder game than the statistics would suggest for Piast. Piast also have to deal with the absence of Czech defensive lynchpin Buryan, although they at least welcome back Matras to spare their defence from a completely unrecognisable state. Piast miss a number of other players in their squad, including regular midfielder Urban. However, Kedziora and Jurado are available so that equates to goals in my world. Additionally, the absence of holding midfielder Balzer for Dolcan opens to the door to a Piast pounding, if they feel so inclined. The absence of Grzelak on the flank damages Dolcan’s attack but Swierbiewski and Tataj have enough about them to score here either way as Piast are not a very convincing side defensively.
Given the importance of the game and the above information, I have to view taking over 2.5 goals as a good bet at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
Atletico Madrid – Tiago, Silvio, and Merida are absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Ocio, Gurpegi, and Castillo are absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Jablonec – Vukovic, Kocourek, Vanek, and Korvarik are absent.
Slovan Liberec – Rabusic is absent.
Dukla Prague – Svejdik is absent.
Sparta Prague – Kweuke is a doubt.
Viktoria Plzen – Pavlik is a doubt.
Marila Pribram – Hejda, Stochl, Divisek, and Slapak are absent.
Ceske Budejovice – Lengyel, Strasky, Bakala, and Reznicek are absent. Danek and Machovec are doubts.
Mlada Boleslav – Sirl, Stohanzl, Janicek, Zahustel, Kalina, Opiela, and Fabian are absent.
Bohemians 1905 – Nikl and Kaufman are absent.
Teplice – Lukas, Silva, and Volek are absent. Mahmutovic, Ceslak, and Sraga are doubts.
Slovacko – Fujerik and Kordula are absent.
Viktoria Zizkov – Kolar is absent. Balek is a doubt.
Banik Ostrava – Sverkos and Smejkal are absent.
Slavia Prague – Conka is absent. Petrak, Milutinovic, and Trubila are doubts.
Hradec Kralove – Plasil is absent.
Sigma Olomouc – Rossi and Koutny are doubts.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Elisha and Levi are absent. Solari is a doubt.
Maccabi Haifa – Katan, Golasa, Meshumar, and Azriel are doubts.
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Neutal venue. Menashe is a doubt.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Vered and Yitzhaki are absent.
Polish Liga 1:
Bogdanka Leczna – No news.
Pogon Szczecin – Kolendowicz is absent.
Gornik Polkowice – No news.
Wisla Pock – No news.
Kolejarz Stroze – No news.
Warta Poznan – Magdziarz may return.
Flota Swinoujscie – No news.
Sandecja Nowy Sacz – Rozalski, Szeliga, and Szczepanski are absent. Aleksander returns.
Ruch Radzionkow – No news.
Nieciecza – Jarecki is absent. Kowalski and Piatek are doubts.
Olimpia Grudziadz – No absentees.
Olimpia Elblag – No news.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz – No news.
Arka Gdynia – Surdykowski is absent. Kuklis is a doubt. Nwaogu returns.
GKS Katowice – Zachara is absent.
Polonia Bytom – Paulista is a doubt.
Piast Gliwice – Docekal, Urban,Trela, Krzycki, Cuerda, Bzedega, and Buryan are absent. Matras and Podgorski return.
Dolcan Zabki – Grzelak and Balzer are absent.