TFT Issue 396!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Paksi SE vs Vasas Budapest – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the Soproni Liga game between Paksi SE and Vasas Budapest.
Paksi SE are still chasing a UEFA Europa League place and they’re playing well enough to get one, too. They’re scoring goals for fun, as always, and playing with confidence right now following three wins from their last five games. Admittedly, they’re going to need to pick themselves up from the surprising 5-0 drubbing at Szombathelyi Haladas but that’s Paksi SE for you; always keen to attack but never keen to defend. When that day comes that they don’t take their chances then chances are good that they’ll take a beating. Paksi SE have a lot of belief in their side, though, and a good level of cohesion. I respect them a lot as a goalscoring side and I think that they’ve got the perfect opponent today upon which they can demonstrate their goalscoring abilities.
Normally, I’d not handicap Paksi SE here because they’re bad at defending and because Vasas Budapest would have needed the points. However, a 2 point deduction in the last couple of days by the Hungarian FA means that Vasas are all but relegated. Their camp has been struggling of late with low morale as it is but this has hammered the nail in the coffin lid for me. Their players don’t look like they want to play for the club and it really is that simple, sadly. Four losses in six games is not good enough at this stage of the season and given the fact that they’re conceding so many goals from daft mistakes, it’s hard for me to take Vasas seriously here.
For me, a determined Paksi SE should run riot in this game. They may well concede but Vasas look vulnerable enough to concede a few goals today. Therefore, my call is for Paksi SE to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Verdict: Paksi SE to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Additional games
Esbjerg vs Randers – home win at 11/10.
Although Esbjerg have already been promoted to the Superligaen, I still fancy them to beat promotion hopefuls Randers today. Why? Well, Esbjerg have been a better side than Randers this season, for starters. Although both sides have a similar quality of defence, Esbjerg simply possess a better frontline and that’s shown over the course of the season. Esbjerg have done well in difficult games lately and with arguably the best squad in the division at hand, you have to favour them to do well in front of their own fans. Randers need points here too, which aids my bet. Randers do well when they can sit back, weigh up their opponents, score a goal, and then sit on it. With only three points now seperating them from third-placed Vejle-Kolding and Viborg following close behind, the pressure is really on Randers to deliver and boy do they buckle under pressure! Three losses in five games shows that Randers are floundering at the moment, especially as they’ve failed to score in three of those games. The absence of experienced and essential defender Pedersen could not be worse-timed as Randers need their experienced players now and he’s one of their best. I just can’t envision a scenario whereby Randers could get a result from this game, to be honest.
I either side Randers playing for the draw (unlikely as they need the points) and eventually conceding and losing 1-0 or Randers trying to play an open game, having some joy, but ultimately losing the game. Either way, I feel that 11/10 on the home win represents value today.
Verdict: Esbjerg to win at 11/10.
Syrianska Sodertalje vs GAIS Goteborg – over 2.5 goals at evens.
A big round of applause to anyone who can call exactly what is going to happen here because I just can’t!
Why? Well, there are two sides to both of these clubs and you never know which one will show up. Syrianska are a battling side at home and can surprise even the biggest of sides. However, they’ve been predominantly lacklustre and ineffectual in recent times until they decided to drub plucky IFK Norrkoping 1-4 away from home last match. I did think that Norrkoping would make a mess of that game as they hate being favourites but I just didn’t see that scoreline coming. It’s hard to imagine Syrianska scoring four goals against anyone, to be honest. Which Syrianska will show up today, though? The one that recognises that home points are essential to their battle against relegation? Or the one that has given up before a ball is kicked?
Similarly, which GAIS will show up? The one that can outplay Elfsborg and Helsingborg? Or the one that can fail to beat Mjallby at home? GAIS have been unlucky in a number of their games this season but it’s only a matter of time before you have to stop using the term “unlucky” and start looking at what they’re doing wrong. Luck will only last a period of time, be it good luck or bad luck, and GAIS are no exception to that. The most likely reasoning behind their hit-and-miss form is either motivation and/or focus. GAIS tend to concede goals rather easily when they have a lead and also tend to struggle against lesser sides whilst outplaying bigger sides. They have one of the best players in the division in Wanderson and a very good striker in Celik so there are goals in GAIS, whatever happens. Their defence has rapidly gone from solid to a joke, however, conceding goals far too easily and I think that they’ll struggle today if their defence adopt such a cavalier defensive approach again.
Again, the 1×2 market is just a huge “no go” for me today. Nothing would surprise me in this game. However, I do like the idea of there being goals because this is a game that Syrianska can win and they definitely need to. Similarly, GAIS can win this one and they need to as well, despite their misfortune. GAIS can and will score goals and as long as Syrianska take theirs then this game should go over 2.5 goals at generous odds of evens, especially with half of GAIS’ defence out in Ekunde and Johansson.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
Bulgarian A PFG:
Levski Sofia – Calvo, Dimov, and Yovov are absent.
Beroe – Ivanov is absent. Eromoigbe returns.
Danish 1st Division:
Esbjerg – K.Hansen is absent. Ankersen returns.
Randers – S.Petersen and Bjarnason are absent. Fenger and van der Schaaf returns.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Vilnius – New manager Ivanauskas.
Banga Gargzdai – No news.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Syrianska Sodertalje – No news.
GAIS Goteborg – E.Johansson, Tamandi, Floren, Spong, and Ekunde are absent. Mujcic and Bassombeng return.