TFT Issue 397!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Inter Turku vs JJK Jyvaskyla – over 3 goals at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga game between Inter Turku and JJK Jyvaskyla.
Inter Turku were very unlucky to lose 2-1 at reigning champions HJK Helsinki lately with the unconvincing hosts needing a 94th-minute goal to secure three points. That’s HJK, though – efficient as hell, even when playing bad/average football! Still, Dragtsma has got Inter believing in themselves and their attacking play is devastating with Georgian striker Sirbiladze having blended in seamlessly. Helpfully, Inter welcome back set piece specialist Ojala today, who bolsters the Inter attack along with the talented Kauko. Inter look a very strong side so far this season although it’s interesting that their defensive record looks a lot better than their actual defence does. I’m sure we’ll see their “real” defence emerge soon, quite possibly even today. Inter look very assured and clinical right now so I wouldn’t bet against them getting three points today although I do feel that 4/5 is a bit short for them to be beating a very good JJK side.
Yeah, JJK haven’t demonstrated their best football so far this season but you know it’s never far away with them. Their midfield is one of the best in the Veikkausliiga and that’s a lethal weapon that is simply waiting to be unleashed. Wusu should be back in the JJK line-up today to give their midfield someone to aim for and the movement of JJK’s midfield makes them unplayable at times. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, though – their defence is shambolic and they will concede in most games this season. Amusingly, they signed Dutch defender van Gelderen and in typical JJK fashion, he scored on his debut!
Both of these two sides are very attacking sides and I expect to see a lot of goals as a result. You do have to favour Inter to win this game but they look a bit too short to interest me here. With JJK’s awful defence but lethal counter-attacks, I can’t help but feel that taking over 3 goals is well worth a bet at 6/5.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 6/5.
Additional games
Jaro Pietarsaari vs FC Honka Espoo – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Call me a nutcase but I think it’s finally time to give Honka a bit of faith. They’re yet to win a Veikkausliiga game this season but we all know that won’t last. A 2-0 Suomen Cup win against VPS Vaasa earlier this week should restore some of the confidence that this youthful Honka side had previously lost and I think that they’re in a good position to take three points today as a result.
I’m not going to make excuses for the bad displays of Honka but they’ve had some hard games so far – TPS at home, IFK Mariehamn away, and JJK at hmoe were their last three Veikkausliiga games. Honka have been a side that performs much better without pressure for some time now though, which is why their away record tends to outshine their home record. This side has no pressure but does have momentum following their mid-week win. Pietarsaari is not the hardest place to go for an away game, either – three points are very much attainable for a frankly superior Honka side.
Jaro might be motivated but where are their goals going to come from? They took a 4-1 drubbing at local rivals Haka Valkeakoski in their last game and Eremenko’s side has hit rock-bottom morale-wise. They have some good players and plenty of grafters but are sadly lacking in quality overall. Indeed, their defence is probably the worst that I’ve ever seen it with one mistake removing all confidence in all of their defenders, hence them getting drubbed as soon as they even get nervous. Niang is a good striker and scoring goals can lessen the pressure on defence but Niang can’t score goals right now because Jaro aren’t attacking well and thus aren’t creating chances. Agyeman’s absence today will only hinder that further and I just don’t see how Jaro will get a result here unless Honka commit footballing suicide.
For me, there’s potentially a lot of value in taking Honka to win this game with draw no bet cover at 4/5.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
OPS Oulu vs Jippo Joensuu – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
As far as spectacles go, I’m not expecting a great game between these two sides. OPS are the better side but Jippo are one of the most stifling Ykkonen sides that you’re likely to come across so there’s not much value to be had on the 1×2 market. OPS are expected to win the game and I would think that they’ll win it too much neither side are operating at 100% capacity because it’s still early season in Finland. Oulu is a long way north for any side and Jippo will undoubtedly go defensive here; it’s all they’re good at. Now, OPS have a very good starting eleven, enough so to upset any of the heavyweights of the division. However, they’ve absolutely zero back-up so any kind of injury/suspension problem and OPS will falter. OPS aren’t missing anyone today so again, you’d have to expect them to ultimately find a way past defensive moguls Jippo. I’m not prepared to take that bet whilst it’s shorter than 5/6, however, so I’d much rather opt for under 2.5 goals. It takes a superb display from the opponents of Jippo or a horrendous display from Jippo for there to be a lot of goals in Jippo’s games and neither are a frequent occurence. For me, this game has 1-0 all over it and thus taking under 2.5 goals looks good to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Debreceni VSC vs Pecsi MFC – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Goalkeeper Novak might be out for Debreceni VSC but that’s the only minor blemish on what should effectively be their title-winning party. It’s not theirs yet but a win today secures it for giants Debreceni VSC and you’d have to be a brave man to bet against them today, especially with ten wins and three draws from thirteen home games in the Soproni Liga this season. The hosts average scoring well over two goals per home game and they’re in terrific form, not to mention high spirits following their convincing 1-2 victory at Gyori ETO FC. Debreceni VSC have had some really tough games lately but they’ve shone through in all of them with very efficient and convincing displays. Coulibaly is in the form of his life and with Bodi, Kulcsar, and Szakaly in the mix with him, Debreceni VSC are very much a lethal attacking side and I expect them to demonstrate that here. Helpfully, Pecsi MFC not only have nothing to play for but they’re also playing badly. They’re not scoring goals, they’re conceding goals too easily, and their manager is losing his mind. He’s kicked midfielders Scepanovic and Todorovic to the “B” team following poor displays of late and given that Pecsi MFC are aleady missing Nagy, Demjen, Simonfalvi, and Bajzat, I think the visitors are in for a really long game here. Bajzat is their only good goalscorer and the rest of the absentees robs Pecsi MFC of all their midfield and part of their defence. With a terrible run leading Pecsi MFC into this game, I can only see Debreceni VSC winning this game comfortably.
Verdict: Debreceni VSC to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Stabaek vs Molde FK – away win at 4/5.
I can honestly say that I really do not understand these odds. Stabaek sold all of their good midfielders and all of their good strikers pre-season, not to mention one of their more consistent defenders. Stabaek’s crippling financial position means that they had to move back to their old stadium and had to replace all their good players with youngsters and freebies from elsewhere. They’re working hard and are gradually galvanising but I’ll be astounded if they don’t lose 70% of their games this season because they’re too weak in defence and too ineffectual in front of goal. A 3-1 defeat at Lerkendal against Rosenborg BK looks respectable on paper but in truth they were totally outplayed from the start and a 10-0 scoreline would not have been unfair, in my eyes. Rosenborg were sadly a little complacent in front of goal and perhaps a shade lazy from time to time and they still tore Stabaek a new one, which should give you an idea of where the hosts are at right now.
Alright, so Molde have lost three out of three on the road in the Eliteserien this season. Does that really mean that they should be 4/5 against a side that they’re frankly two or three classes above? Not for me. Molde won’t end this season with zero away wins! Yeah, they’ve not been good enough on the road this season but that’s not through a lack of ability but moreso a lack of tactical knowledge and a lack of finesse. Pace, quality, skill – you name it, Molde have it. They’ve got one of the best midfields in Norway with Hoseth, Eikrem, and Hestad destroying sides at will and with Berget, Mostrom, and Angan ahead of them, it’s no surprise that Molde are so threatening to their opponents. They do miss Thioune in midfield, it’s true, and their defence feels it too. However, I’ll pay more attention to their defensive misdemeanors when they face a side that can score goals against them and the current Stabaek side really shouldn’t be able to do that.
For me, this is boys vs men and I thoroughly expect Molde to win the game at 4/5 if they apply themselves correctly.
Verdict: Molde FK to win at 4/5.
Real Sociedadvs Valencia CF – home win with draw no bet at evens.
This game means nothing, right? Sociedad have avoided the drop and Valencia are confirmed as third-place finishers, thus claiming their UEFA Champions League place, so there’s nothing to play for!
Wrong – there is. It’s been announced lately that Real Sociedad’s legendary captain Mikel Aranburu is hanging up his boots and that this is his final game. He’s been at this club for fourteen years and they’ll miss him when he’s gone as he’s such a consistent and experienced individual. Even former Real Sociedad captain Xabi Alonso took time out of his schedule to praise the current Real Sociedad captain, which should give you an idea of how highly the Sociedad fans value their skipper. Well, as if a Basque side needed any more motivation to win a game than to celebrate the life of one of their most loyal servants but now that they have it atop their usual motivation and that makes this a massive game for the hosts. At a packed Anoeta with a confident and dangerous attack, I really fancy Sociedad to damage their Valencianan opponents today.
There’s simply no denying that Valencia are a good side. However, the Basque country has never been a favourite place of theirs to visit and with their hosts a lot more interested in winning this game than they are, I fancy Valencia to struggle here. They tend to enter more physical battles with relish nowadays thanks to a more pacey and combative midfield when compared to the Valencia of old and that makes them harder to beat on the road than you’d think for a side with such a poor defence. However, they’ve no motivation here and they’re missing their two best playmakers in Banega and Canales so I fancy them to struggle to break through a pretty reliable Sociedad defence. Rami’s absence for Valencia is another big blow, more so for his presence from set pieces and his pace than his actual defensive work. All in all, this Valencia side isn’t as strong as it needs to be to win here, in my view.
Soldado is having a terrific season and Sociedad will need to be alert against him today. If they manage that, though, then they’re more than capable of winning this game and at draw no bet odds of evens, Real Sociedad look very inviting here.
Verdict: Real Sociedad to win with draw no bet at evens.
Djurgarden vs Atvidaberg – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Djurgarden are without a doubt the better of these two sides but the odds on them winning this game are outrageous! I’m a big fan of DIF, as you may have noticed, but they can’t defend for shit! There is no cohesion between the goalkeeper and his defence, thus resulting in DIF often conceding stupid own goals or just bad goals in general. DIF’s most recent game against AIK Solna in the Stockholm derby was a classic example of what I’ve just said. The two sides traded blows for the game but for me, DIF were never really out of control. They drew first blood from a set piece and prevented AIK Solna from doing anything to them for the vast majority of the game. Then they scored a bizarre own goal from nowhere and could have lost the game had AIK’s attempt on goal been ruled to have crossed the line at the end of the game. That’s typical DIF for you, though – so promising and yet so disappointing!
Three out of DIF’s last five games have gone over 2.5 goals and their last two home games have too because of the above and that’s what I expect again today. Rumour has it that Sjolund is out – which is yet to be confirmed – and that will damage DIF’s attacking game. Still, Hamalainen, Keene, Santos, Rajalakso, and Chibsah are more than a handful and I fully expect DIF to score in this game. Indeed, it’s not a coincidence that they’ve only failed to score in one game this season and that was because they played the vast majority of it with ten men!
I thought Atvidaberg were on a slippery slope until their recent game with Malmo FF, where they proved me wrong. Malmo FF produced their typically complacent display against a lesser opponent and very nearly threw away a good lead to draw the game. A late goal turned things back in Malmo’s favour, however, and they subsequently won the game. Atvidaberg can take heart from that game, though – they played pretty well adn they do possess a good offensive threat. Defensively, they’re a joke and they will concede goals in every game this season. However, they’re a relatively confident side and they’re not easy to defend against so I think that they’ll have some joy against DIF today.
Truth be told, I’d love to be confident enough in DIF to back them here but I’m just not. They’re not worth the odds that they’re at right now, much as though I expect them to win the game. However, you can usually rely on their games to go over 2.5 goals and with the confident, attack-minded displays of both sides so far this season, I can’t help but feel that taking over 2.5 goals is the best way to approach this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby Solvesborg – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Although not a very “overs” kind of side right now, I fancy Kalmar to force this one to go over 2.5 goals. Dauda has been in inspired form and alongside a good forward like Daniel Mendes, Kalmar actually have a more dangerous threat than I initially anticipated them having this season following all their departures pre-season. It’s been pleasantly surprising to see, to be honest, although in typical Kalmar fashion their promise only tends to show when the odds are against it happening. Kalmar are still a bit of a mess at the back, though, with goalkeeper Berisha’s constant mistakes not allowing his defence to have any confidence or stability, hence Kalmar conceding in all but two Allsvenskan games this season. Kalmar tend to play good football at home with their passionate fans behind them and, if allowed, the will win this game.
I’m not so sure that Mjallby will let that happen, though. I hate going against Kalmar at home but taking Mjallby with draw no bet cover really interested me here because they’ve looked so strong lately. Mjallby’s attack is very underrated and that’s not a great surprise, really – they’re not notorious for their goalscoring ability. I’ve no idea whether it was the rumour that they were re-signing El-Kabir from Cagliari that inspired them but suddenly Ericsson remembered why he used to play for IFK Goteborg. Suddenly Pode remembered how dangerous his runs were. Suddenly Fejzullahu remembered the unplayable form he had that saw him sign for NEC Nijmegen as a youngster. All of these things took the pressure off veteran Ekenberg and the pace in this Mjallby attack has caused so many problems to opponents of late that it’s encouraging the whole squad. To come from two goals down against Malmo lately demonstrates just how much Mjallby believe in themselves right now and I respect that. They’re showing no fea right now and they’re scoring goals for fun so why can’t they cause an upset here? Their defence is old and slow and thus they can concede goals but I think they’re playing well enough to not lose this game today.
However, rather than enter a very dubious 1×2 market, I’d much rather opt for over 2.5 goals here. Kalmar won’t want that because it means trading blows in a more open game, which isn’t their style. Mjallby are playing well enough to make it so, however, and thus over 2.5 goals is my call today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Torpedo Zhodino – Kendysh, Rabtsaw, and Schegrikovich are absent.
Belshina Bobriusk – Khaletski, Melnyk, Tupchiy, and Bylina are absent.
Dinamo Brest – Goncearov, Sokol, and Dzemidovich are absent.
Naftan Novopolotsk – Yezerskiy and Hawrushka are absent.
Gomel – No absentees.
BATE Borisov – Kuntsevich and Mazalewski are absent.
Dinamo Minsk – Lisovyi is absent.
FC Minsk – Razin and Sverchinskiy are absent.
Neman Grodno – Lyachylin is absent.
Slavia Mozyr – Svorak, Zuev, and Strakhanovich are absent.
Cypriot Division 1:
Omonia Nicosia – Karipedes is a doubt.
AEL Limassol – Monteiro is absent.
Anorthosis Famagusta – No news.
APOEL Nicosia – Poursaitides is absent. Marsinho, Boaventura, and Kaka are leaving the club.
Nea Salamis – No news.
AEK Larnaca – Garcia is leaving the club.
Enosis Neon Paralimni – No news.
Olympiakos Nicosia – Financial problems.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovan Liberec – No absentees.
Viktoria Plzen – Pavlik is a doubt.
Sparta Prague – Kweuke is absent.
Ceske Budejovice – Brezinsky, Riegel, Bakala, Lengyel, Strasky, and Machovec are absent. Repka is a doubt.
Mlada Boleslav – Taborsky, Johana, Sirl, Stohanzl, Janicek, Zahusel, Kalina, Opiela, and Fabian are absent.
Jablonec – Zabojnik, Lafata, Vukovic, Kocourek, Vanek, and Kovarik are absent.
Teplice – Mahmutovic, Volek, and Rosa are absent.
Banik Ostrava – Sverkos and Smejkal are absent.
Sigma Olomouc – Kucera and Rossi are absent.
Dukla Prague – Lietava and Vrzal are absent.
Marila Pribram – Plesko, Hejda, and Stochl are absent.
Slovacko – Fujerik, Kordula, and Hlupik are absent.
Slavia Prague – Skoda and Conka are absent.
Bohemians 1905 – Nikl, Kaufman, Borek, and Abraham are absent. Nespor is a doubt.
Viktoria Zizkov – Kolar is absent. Balek is a doubt.
Hradec Kralove – Cerny is absent.
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens – Mehl, Absalonsen, Nohr, and Hajdarevic are absent.
Midtylland – Bak is absent. Janssen returns.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Tallinna Kalev – R.Kago and R.Tomson are absent.
Tammeka – No absentees.
Kuressaare – No news.
Levadia Tallinn – Rattel is absent.
Flora Paide – Nomme is absent.
Flora Tallinn – No absentees.
Viljandi – Mutt is absent.
Trans Narva – No news.
Nomme Kalju – Jevdokimov and Quinteri are doubts.
Sillamae Kalev – No news.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku – Kauko, Diallo, and Parviainen are absent. Ojala returns.
JJK Jyvaskyla – No news.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Agyeman, Aho, and Brunell are absent. Banner and Emet are doubts.
FC Honka Espoo – No news.
HJK Helsinki – Sadik is absent. Lahti, Pelvas, and Asraf are doubts.
KuPS Kuopio – Voutilanen, Berg, Hoivala, Kupiainen, Koljonen, and Zahovaiko are absent. Tabe and Puri return.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Saxman is a doubt.
Haka Valkeakoski – Mattila and Pesonen are absent. Popovits is a doubt.
Finnish Ykkonen:
OPS Oulu – No news.
Jippo Joensuu – M.Ikonen, L.Ikonen, and Koivuranta are doubts.
PK-35 Helsinki – Kabashi, Nyberg, Gomez-Marttila, Ikegwunou, Sorja, and Oravainen are absent.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Berg, Grohn, Pennanen, and Turcios are absent. Yrjanheikki and Tyystala return.
Viikingit Helsinki – Sarkkala and Koivu are absent. Hirvonen returns.
SJK – Caumo, Lehtinen, and Penninkangas are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Ujpest – Balog is absent.
Ferencvaros – Simon, Kabat, and Rajczi are absent.
Debreceni VSC – Novak is absent.
Pecsi MFC – Bajzat, Nagy, Demjen, and Simonfalvi are absent. Scepanovic and Todorovic have been sent to the “B” team for poor displays..
Siofok – Kiss is absent.
Zalaegerszegi TE – No news.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
MS Ashdod – Marziano is absent. Revivo is a doubt.
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Menashe is absent. Ivaskevicius returns.
Maccabi Netanya – Nahum is absent. Mughrabi and Reuven are doubts. Last game in their stadium. Last game for coach Atar.
Bnei Sakhnin – Elkayam is absent.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Alberman, Yitzhaki, Colautti, Vered, Haimov, Puncec, and Nivaldo are absent. Strul returns.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Levi, Elisha are absent. Solari is a doubt. Coach Ben-Shimon’s last game but he’s confined to the stands today.
Maccabi Haifa – Meshumar and Golasa are doubts.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Abutbul is absent. Kende, Tamuz, and Antebi are doubts. Igiebor and Badier return.
Hapoel Haifa – No absentees. Owner Katz and boss Banin’s minor fracas has disrupted preparation for this game.
Hapoel Petah Tikva – Lurzon, Zarfati, Shen, and Asus are absent.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Illuz is absent.
Beitar Jerusalem – Cohen, Ben-Shushan, and Moyal are absent.
Maccabi Petah Tikva – Golan and Ulzan are absent.
Ironi Ramat Hasharon – Suissa, Pesser, and Nir are absent. Offir, Ben-Shabat, and Abutbul are doubts.
Hapoel Rishon Lezion – Cohen, Sapir, Elkaslasy, and Musa are absent.
Hapoel Acre – Dayan and Danin are absent.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Dainava – A.Mikaitis and P.Sakalis are absent.
Atlantas – No news.
Tauras Taurage – Meistininkas and Ankudinov may debutise. First game on natural grass for Tauras.
Ekranas Panevezys – No absentees.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Stabaek – Aase is absent.
Molde FK – Stensild and Ekpo are absent.
Tromso – Ahamed is a doubt.
Valerenga Oslo – Muri, Kongshavn, Sorli, and Kone are absent. Haestad and Ogude are doubts.
Polish Liga 1:
Polonia Bytom – Paulista and Hermes are doubts.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz – Skowronski and Gevorgian are absent.
Sandecja Nowy Sacz – No news.
Dolcan Zabki – Jakubik, Pulkowski, and Grzelak are absent.
Olimpia Grudziadz – No news.
Gornik Polkowice – No news.
Warta Poznan – Marciniak, Klatt, and Bereszczynski are absent. Magdziarz returns.
Bogdanka Leczna – No news.
Pogon Szczecin – Szalek is absent.
Katowice – Holota and Rakels are absent. Zachara returns.
Arka Gdynia – Surdykowski is absent.
Wisla Plock – No news.
Olimpia Elblag – No news.
Piast Gliwice – Cuerda, Bzdega, Krzycki, Trela, Urban, and Docekal are absent.
Kolejarz Stroze – No news.
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen – Anderson, Milsom, Robertson, Paton, Pawlett, and Hughes are absent.
St.Mirren – Mair is absent.
Dunfermline Athletic – McCann is absent.
Kilmarnock – Heffernan, Kroca, Pascali, Hay, and Buijs are absent.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Hogg is absent.
Hibernian – Galbraith and Stack are absent.
Serbian Superliga:
Jagodina – Dukic is absent.
Radnicki 1923 – Kostic, Spalevic, and Mutavdzic are absent.
Partizan Belgrade – Scepovic, Eduardo, Lazevski are absent. Vukic is a doubt.
Vojvodina Novi Sad – Moreira and Katai are absent. Appiah is a doubt.
Red Star Belgrade – Milivojevic is absent. Evandro and Dimitrijevic are doubts.
OFK Belgrade – Milic, Batioha, Vasiljevic, and Zaveric are absent.
Borac Cacak – No news.
Novi Pazar – No news.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Sociedad – No news.
Valencia CF – Canales, Banega, and Rami are absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Dorado, Benat, and Canas return. Iriney and Nelson are absent.
Barcelona – Villa, Abidal, Puyol, Pinto, and Sanchez are absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Fenerbahce – Sow, Gonul, and Alex are doubts.
Galatasaray – No absentees.
Istanbul BB – Arat, Vinicius, Zayatte, and Hasagic are absent.
Bursaspor – N’Diaye and Carson are absent.
Sivasspor – Hayrettin is absent.
Eskisehirspor – Sezgin, Yaman, Burhan, Serkan, and Erkan are absent. Ivesa is a doubt.