TFT Issue 40!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga clash in A Coruna between Deportivo and Real Sociedad.
Riazor has been one of the most feared venues in Spain over the past decade or so and nothing has changed during that period; Deportivo simply are not an easy side to face on their own turf. Real Madrid came to Riazor recently and left with a goalless draw after a battling display. In fact, the only side to win at Deportivo in their last nine home games was a rampant Barcelona side, who emerged with a heroic 0-4 win. I’m not saying that Deportivo are the best side in the Primera Liga; far from it. However, when playing at their beloved Riazor with their vociferous support, you’d be surprised at just how good Deportivo can actually be. The only complaint that I can register with Deportivo is not scoring enough goals but boss Lotina knew that pre-transfer window and drafted in ex-River Plate target man Jose Maria Sand and Newcastle United outcast Xisco as competition for the returning Riki and emerging Adrian so Deportivo finally have back-up and options in attack. Deportivo’s injury list is lessening rapidly with Riki back in the team and with support from the likes of Guardado, Valeron, and Rodriguez in midfield, I think this Deportivo side is a lot more dangerous than they’re portrayed to be, although I do think that the ever-absent Juca is still a hefty loss for them. Nonetheless, it takes a great display to leave Riazor with something as Deportivo make it very hard for their opponents and given the quality of players available to Lotina, I think we’ll see an assured Depor display tonight.
Visitors Real Sociedad fucked up quite a lot of accumulators with their 1-1 draw against Levante in Anoeta last match and managed to substantially piss me off by doing so too. At home, Sociedad are a force to be reckoned with despite being a side with far more battlers than quality players so never underestimate them in the Basque country. However, away from home, they’re very vulnerable, especially at the back, and that could cost them here. They’ve lost nine out of thirteen away games in the Primera Liga, a record which is so bad that only Osasuna and Hercules Alicante can “better” it on the road. I rate Real Sociedad very highly at home but away from home, they virtually become Hercules Alicante in my eyes, especially with their average of conceding over two goals per away game. Sociedad are generally quite well-organised but they lack in ability in varying areas with only Aranburu, Gonzalez, Xabi Prieto, Llorente, and Tamudo good enough to provide quality in their team, in my view. However, there’s a massive reliance on Llorente and Tamudo in attack because nobody else scores goals for them consistently. Unfortunately for the Basque side, who were already missing Joseba Llorente, they now miss Raul Tamudo and thus deny him a reunion with his old coach from Espanyol and this ultimately renders Sociedad impotent, given how strong Deportivo can be defensively at the Riazor. They’ve actually lost five out of their last six away games in the Primera Liga whilst averaging conceding over three goals per away game so it doesn’t bode well for them here, especially with the probability of them scoring goals being rather minimal due to their absent strikers.
I wonder what kind of reception Lotina will get from Real Sociedad tonight? As a former manager of theirs, you’d imagine that they’d be fairly generous but they also know he’s a Gernika-born manager and Gernika has its allegiances to Athletic Club de Bilbao, who are naturally Real Sociedad’s bitter rivals. Additionally, he was in charge when Sociedad were relegated so it’ll be interesting to see their reaction here.
Anyway, I have to fancy Deportivo here. Goalscoring is the only part of their game that they struggle with but Sociedad don’t make it hard for any side to score against them away from home and if they fall behind here then Deportivo should hold the lead. Sociedad also importantly miss talismanic central midfielder Aranburu for this game, which is another massive blow for them. You can expect cards here because games between rival northern Spain counties tends to produce tense games. However, for me, the value is with strong Deportivo in overcoming their under-strength opponents at decent odds of 11/10.
Team news – Real Sociedad miss Sutil, Aranburu, Llorente, and Tamudo.
Verdict: Deportivo La Coruna to win at 11/10.
Additional game
Universitatea Craiova vs Victoria Branesti – over 2.5 goals at 27/20.
The odds are generous for this selection because the hosts aren’t a good goalscoring side and do tend to defend stoutly. However, I think we may see a slight change in today’s games!
Craiova build from the back, basically – that’s their footballing style. They were alright in their game against rivals Steaua Bucharest lately but lost 1-0 because Steaua Bucharest are better than they are, simply put. Craiova tend to need quite a lot of chances to score goals, hence their predicament. They’re worthy of a much better league placing, however, in my view. They are solid at the back and any side playing here generally struggles but Craiova not only miss Ciuca and Dananae, both of which are essential to their defence, but they also miss back-up defender Lopes so numbers are dwindling at the back in a rapid fashion. If Craiova lose their defensive strength in this game then they’re going to really struggle as they’ll either be forced to attack somewhat uncharacteristically or they’ll have to change formation, which doesn’t suit them. There’s going to have to be the usual high reliance on Dina and Prepelita in midfield to supply the chances or even score the goals in order for Craiova to win what is effectively a very important game for them and they’re fortunately facing a side that they can easily score against, irrespective of their own goalscoring impotence.
Unlike their hosts today, Victoria Branesti are where they are because they simply cannot defend. They’re a spirited side of local players and they’ve done quite well since promotion, all things considered. However, it has to be noted that so many goals that only Sportul Studentesc have conceded more than they have this season and Sportul are bottom of the table, virtually condemned to relegation too, in my book. They average conceding over two goals per away game, hence their predicament, and that will probably worsen today as Craiova are a better side than they are. However, say what you will about Branesti and their lack of talent but as far as goalscoring goes, only giants Dinamo Bucharest, Poli Timisoara, CFR Cluj, and their hosts today have scored more away goals than they have so don’t write them off entirely here. Branesti enter this game with confidence after a 1-1 draw with giants CFR Cluj in Buzau and considering that seven out of their ten away games this season have gone over 2.5 goals due to their relentlessly enthusiastic displays, I think there’s a decent chance that this game will also go over 2.5 goals today.
Both of these sides love to counter-attack and with both sides needing the points today, I think we’ll see plenty of attacking via one medium or another and that should yield plenty of goals. I’m hoping that Craiova don’t get an early goal because their usual tactic is to sit on it and they’re unfortunately pretty damn good at it by now. Ideally, Branesti will score first and then we’ll see the game open up but either way, I still think over 2.5 goals is priced too long here with Craiova missing two of their best defenders today.
Team news – Universitatea Craiova miss Lopes, Dananae, and Ciuca.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 27/20.