TFT issue 401!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
I apologise for the negative outcome of yesterday’s issue but that kind of thing happens every now and then, I’m afraid. I just hope that the vast majority of you are happy with the service that you receive. Please feel free to post any comments regarding your concerns or general thoughts below, if you so desire. If not, the best of luck to you on today’s tips!
Featured game
Malmo FF vs Elfsborg Boras – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the colossal Allsvenskan game between Malmo FF and league leaders Elfsborg Boras. Malmo simply cannot afford to do anything but win this game if they intend on challenging Elfsborg for the title and I think that they might just manage it.
I wouldn’t say that Malmo are the most reliable of sides, to be honest. Mentally, they’re a bit hard to fathom sometimes. However, what I would point out is that their quality is second to none when it comes to having a wide variety of attacking options that are capable of winning them any game at any time. What I like about Malmo is that they are very hard to beat, which is especially interesting because it’s not difficult to score against them. Defensively, there are only four sides in the Allsvenskan to have shipped more goals than Malmo have this season and that’s in spite of the fact that Malmo are easily one of the top three sides in it right now! They simply have lapses in concentration, especially when they have the lead or are facing a lesser side. I admire Malmo’s attacking power because I’ve not seen a side this season capable of stopping them but their defence is going to cost them the title, in my view. I watched their big game with IFK Goteborg last time out and they gave as good as they got with a draw being a fair result in my eyes. It was a cracking game with both sides exploiting the defensive ineptitude of the other and although Malmo arguably had more chances to win it than IFK Goteborg, I still feel that the draw was the most fair outcome. Malmo never gave up though, even then trailing 2-1 with just minutes remaining, and they got their rewards with an equaliser. They won’t give up, Malmo, but their tactical approach and mental focus when they’re leading is questionable to say the least.
If we’re talking about tactical supremacy then Elfsborg are the side that immediately comes to mind. Yet again they weren’t great in Boras and yet they still won the game against AIK Solna 1-0. What can you say? Elfsborg are a ruthlessly efficient side and that’s what you need to win the title. I’d go as far as to say that we’ve not even seen the best of Elfsborg yet and they’re already five points clear of Hacken with a game in hand! They’ve got some very talented players and plenty of experience in all of the right areas. However, one thing I will say about Elfsborg is that have ridden their luck thus far. What I mean by that is that on the sole occasion that they’ve faced a good side away from home this season, they’ve lost. In fact, that game (at Helsingborg) was the only one away from home this season that they’ve played on natural turf, which again leads us into an interesting area. Elfsborg don’t play well away from home, traditionally speaking, and playing on natural turf does not improve that aspect of their style. Now they face Malmo on natural turf and they’re certainly due an opponent who takes their chances against Elfsborg. Believe me when I say that Elfsborg’s defence isn’t as good as the Allsvenskan statistics suggest that it is! I do think you’ll see that in tonight’s game, too.
The odds on Malmo winning are a bit too short as these are the two best sides in Sweden right now so I won’t enter the 1×2 market. I was hoping for 6/5, to be honest, but I guess that was a bit too much to ask. However, over 2.5 goals suits me perfectly at 9/10 as I cannot see this game ending without both sides scoring and yet Malmo really need to push for a win and Elfsborg are lethal on counter-attacks. For me, over 2.5 goals is a steal at 9/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
Velez Sarsfield vs Santos – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Velez are traditionally a bit of an unders side as they like to score goals and defend it. They’re pretty good at it, for an Argentinian side, although they’re still not the side that they were two years ago. There is bags of experience in this Velez side, which aids them a lot in their tactical approach. However, they’ve got a tough one today because there aren’t many better flair sides in South America than Santos right now, especially not whilst hot property Neymar leads the attacking line. Velez’s defence will have to be immaculate to stop him today and even then I’m not sure they’ll be able to – he’s just too good. Santos are not astute tactically but they’re frightening in attack with not just Neymar but Ganso and Elano wreaking havoc. All of Santos’ away games in the Copa Libertadores this season have involved both sides scoring and all but one of them have gone over 2.5 goals as a result. Velez must win here to stand a chance of progression and yet Santos are lethal on counter-attacks. Add to that the everlasting Brazil-Argentina rivalry and I feel we’ll not only see plenty of cards but plenty of goals too. For me, over 2.5 goals looks very generous at 6/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
SJK vs PK-35 Helsinki – over 2.5 goals at evens.
These two sides are both expected to compete for promotion to the Veikkausliiga this season despite SJK having only just been promoted from the Kakkonen. PK-35 are old hands when it comes to the promotion chase but SJK are newcomers to it with some strong financial investment ensuring that they actually have some Veikkausliiga-standard players in their ranks now.
SJK not only have to compete with stronger sides than before but also the weight of expectation, which doesn’t help. No side likes that! I mean, they’ve got this 41-game unbeaten record to bring into this game and that doesn’t help anyone. Look how nervous SJK have been so far! They conceded at Jippo in Joensuu, conceded at home against poor travellers HiFK Helsinki, and weren’t A1 against Viikingit Helsinki lately either. Credit where it’s due to the hosts for today as they’re scoring goals winning games as a result but their defence leaves a lot to be desired and they seem to be playing nervously to me. SJK are playing on artificial turf today, however, and with the firepower in their ranks, you wouldn’t catch me betting against them today!
PK-35 are a better side, in my view, but it all comes down to what happens on the pitch rather than what happens on the teamsheet prior to the game. PK-35 have been immense in the Ykkonen thus far, however, bagging thirteen goals in three games and keeping three clean sheets along the way. With ex-Honka playmaker Weckstrom leading the charge and goals from all over the team flooding in, you have to respect PK-35 a lot here today. Some of their hordes of new players do need time to adjust and that may be more evident today than it has been in PK-35’s previous games. Nonetheless, as an attacking force, PK-35 are not easy to deal with and I think they’ll trouble their pressurised hosts today.
As far as picking a winner goes, I just wouldn’t touch this game. Most people I’ve come across are favouring SJK and I can understand that, although my leaning is more toward PK-35. However, I expect both sides to score in this game and thus betting on there being at least one more goal at evens seems good value to me today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
GAIS Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall – away win with draw no bet at 12/5.
Today’s long shot of the day is GIF Sundsvall to be the first side to leave Goteborg with three points taken from GAIS this season! Why? Well, I’ll elaborate as to why I think what I do.
First of all, GAIS tend to have motivation problems. They’re a very good side, better than GIF Sundsvall in all honesty, but they only tend to pick their game up for the bigger sides of late. I’ve watched them against Kalmar FF, Mjallby Solvesborg, and Syrianska of late and it’s left me cold each time. GAIS did more than enough going forward against Kalmar but their defence was a joke and their lack of concentration could have and should have lost them that game. GAIS should have lost against a Mjallby side that frankly outplayed them in the last game in Goteborg and promptly lost 2-0 against an inferior Syrianska side without even trying! Syrianska were almost never troubled in that game whilst GAIS were left struggling to create a presentable chance despite their opponents lacking in pace at the back. GAIS were magnificent against Helsingborg and Elfsborg Boras but so what? They’re still not winning games due to conceding stupid goals thanks to a lack of concentration. Wanderson is arguably the best attacker in Sweden and Celik is a very capable hitman. Believe me when I say that if GAIS show up then they’ll win this game. Will they show up? They’ve not done so for two games now; it’s hard to see them doing so against minnows GIF Sundsvall.
I’ve watched a lot of GIF Sundsvall games of late too, however, and they have impressed me. It’s ironic, really, as they’re not scored for three consecutive games. I would hasten to add, however, that two of those games were against vastly superior sides in IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg, the latter of which GIF Sundsvall actually outplayed, for my money. GIF Sundsvall were guilty of wasting chances in that game and the one time that they fell asleep at left-back, Helsingborg punished them, just like a good side should. GIF Sundsvall outplayed Gefle last match but couldn’t make it count then so confidence in front of goal today may be their biggest concern. I’m not too impressed with GIF Sundsvall’s defence but their pace on the counter-attack is dangerous and they’re a good passing side. The return of playmaker Kevin Walker aids their cause today and with regular defender Gustafsson out for their hosts, I think GIF Sundsvall can finally get the monkey off their backs today.
For me, there’s value in taking GIF with draw no bet at 12/5. Again, GAIS are the better side and they will win this game if they motivate themselves properly. I’m taking the gamble that they won’t do that because they haven’t of late and they tend to struggle against lesser opponents. GIF Sundsvall have no fear of any side and there are gaps in that GAIS side that they can exploit. For me, taking GIF Sundsvall with draw no bet at 12/5 is well worth a cheeky bet today!
Verdict: GIF Sundsvall to win with draw no bet at 12/5.
Mjallby Solvesborg vs IFK Goteborg – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
If Elfsborg weren’t travelling to Malmo today then this would be the featured game, simply put!
I don’t know whether it’s the potential return of El-Kabir that is causing Mjallby’s attackers to have a rocket up their arses but they’re playing brilliantly at the moment! We all know of their capabilities but Fejzullahu and Ericsson in particular have been superb of late. We shouldn’t leave out old hand Ekenberg, too, as his movement is always a threat to opposing defences, not to mention his experience. Throw into the mix the pace and movement of Radetinac, Pode, and Nicklasson and you have a very dangerous attack here. Their unsung hero of late has to be Angolan central midfielder Dominiqui, though. He absolutely dominated midfield against Kalmar in Mjallby’s last game and I think he’ll cause problems today too. The only side to beat Mjallby this season was in-form Hacken and they had to score four goals to do so! Mjallby’s defence isn’t the best and with 40-year old Rosengren at the heart of it and converted winger Leandersson at full-back, it’s no real surprise that they ship so many goals. Still, this side plays with belief, precision, and attacking power that they’re simply not given credit for. I won’t go overboard and say that they’re dark horses for the title or something like that because that’d just be stupid. However, they’re a very good side right now and they will score goals against anyone playing as well as this. If you get chance, do check out Nicklasson’s thunderbolt against Kalmar, incidentally – inch perfect!
IFK Goteborg are really up against it today, despite being the better of these two sides. They’ve got more recognisable players and one of the best midfields in Sweden but that counts for nothing when your side blatantly refuses to keep clean sheets. I thought IFK did well against Malmo lately as I rate Malmo as a marginally better side. IFK were a bit daft at the back and wasted some chances at the other end but things are finally coming together now that their new players are gelling. One thing I respect about IFK perhaps moreso than I do Malmo would be that they constantly work hard. They may lack the positional sense for it to be shrewd all the time but they’re not an easy side to play against either. Stahre’s side always seems to have that extra energy when they need it – it’s just a shame that they can’t put that effort in in training or they wouldn’t ship as many daft goals as they do. They’ve got a wealth of experience and attacking power, however, and they will make mincemeat of Mjallby’s defence, given chances. Stahre will hopefully continue to use young Soder’s pace and movement today because I don’t see how Rosengren can possibly get near him here. Will IFK have what it takes to win this difficult game, though? I’m not so sure.
I think you could make a case for the odds being a little wrong here. I like Mjallby a lot right now but IFK are the better side and should be slight favourites, which they’re surprisingly not at the moment. Mjallby being favourites is a bit stupid but whatever – I’m not going to touch the 1×2 market today. However, I really like the look of taking over 2.5 goals at 10/11 because it’ll take a miracle for either side to leave this game with a clean sheet!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Djurgarden vs Gefle – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Despite the absence of the impressive Keene today through suspension, I still have faith in Djurgarden producing the goods, although that may be a dangerous notion in itself.
Djurgarden are a very determined and hard-working unit and sides don’t like facing them for that reason. It doesn’t matter what score it is; this side always believes that they can and will win. I respect them for that. However, their defence is just shambolic and Djurgarden keeping a clean sheet will never cease to amaze me. I mean, I watched them against Atvidaberg in their last home game and despite Djurgarden never being out of control of the game, they still conceded on one of the few occasions that Atvidaberg got into their half. That part of Djurgarden’s game makes me nervous so please don’t take European Handicaps instead of Asian Handicaps here!
However, Djurgarden are a very good attacking side and I thoroughly expect to see them do the business today. Hopefully Pehrsson won’t be so daft as to bench Santos again today as a few minutes on the field against Atvidaberg allowed him to score the opening goal as Atvidaberg couldn’t handle someone with his movement in the box. Djurgarden would normally miss Keene’s pace a lot but he’s more useful for counter-attacking in away games and given that I expect one-way traffic for this game, Keene is perhaps not the ideal candidate to partner Santos up front, barring his ability to do the unexpected. Sjolund, Hamalainen, Rajalakso, and Chibsah are all capable of producing something, though, and when Djurgarden get one, they should get more. Gefle are only good at defending, you see – let them come out and attack and they’ll be picked off by Djurgarden. As long as Djurgarden keep their cool in front of goal – unlike Chibsah last match – then they’ll win this one easily today.
Djurgarden old boy Oremo misses out for Gefle and with Orlov as a doubt, Gefle’s attack looks weaker than ever. Dahlberg may be keen to bag against his old club but he’s not been at his best since he was actually at Djurgarden! Gefle are horribly ineffectual in attack and it’s most likely going to cost them their place in the Allsvenskan next season. Gefle haven’t scored for four out of their last five games and the one goal that they did score against Kalmar FF was due to Berisha not making a routine save. It’s not that Gefle are a particularly bad side, per se, because they’re not. Defensively, they can be a real pain to break through, especially for the bigger sides. However, despite their possession in games, Gefle rarely create enough chances and subsequently they almost never test the goalkeeper. It’s going to take all the help that Djurgarden’s defence can give them to score today and although Djurgarden are more than capable of conceding against any Allsvenskan side, I don’t think Gefle will be the first goalscorers here and if they’re not then they’re going to lose because of a lack of firepower and an inability to use their only strength (defending) whilst trying to push out and get points. Set pieces are one of Gefle’s only hopes here and I just don’t see it happening for them, not with confidence so low right now.
I would not take this bet below 9/10 because Djurgarden simply aren’t worth lower odds. However, the -1 Asian Handicap does look awfully appealing here, especially with all the one-way traffic that I expect to ensue. There may be better odds available in-play, incidentally – Gefle can sometimes take some time to be penetrated due to their well-organised back four.
Verdict: Djurgarden to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Team news
Finnish Ykkonen:
RoPS Rovaniemi – Turcios, Berg, Pennanen, and Grohn are absent. Kokko is a doubt.
KooTeePee Kotka – Jarviniemi and Lomidze are absent. Jammeh is a doubt. Ositashvili returns.
SJK – Sipila, Penninkangas, Caumo, and Lehtinen are absent. Cleaver is a doubt.
PK-35 Helsinki – Oravainen, Nyberg, Sorja, Kabashi, Gomez-Marttila, and Ikegwuonu are absent.
Dutch Eredivisie:
RKC Waalwijk – van Dijk, Ramos, Janssen, and Bandjar are absent. Sno is a doubt.
Vitesse Arnhem – Annan is absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GAIS Goteborg – Gustafsson is absent. Ekunde and Johansson return.
GIF Sundsvall – Lundstrom is absent. Walker returns.
Mjallby Solvesborg – Ericsson has been allowed to play against his parent club.
IFK Goteborg – Lund is absent. Stiller returns.
Djurgarden – Keene is absent.
Gefle – Oremo is absent. Orlov is a doubt.
Malmo FF – Wilton Figureido is absent. Pekalski returns.
Elfsborg Boras – Fridgeirsson, M.Andersson, and Mobaeck are absent.