TFT Issue 404!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Scandinavia destroyed me yesterday but I’m hoping that today is much kinder as I’m not sure that I can handle another day where teams like AIK Solna somehow manage to score five goals in a single game! Five goals?! AIK won’t score five goals over their next five games!! Anyway, today is all about Scandinavia so let’s hope for a bit of luck.
Featured game
HJK Helsinki vs FC Honka Espoo – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga game between HJK and Honka. This is a derby of sorts given that both sides expect to be competing for the title each season. To be honest, it’s been a few seasons since Honka actually did compete but much like Arsenal in England, they’ll always be there or thereabouts at the end of the season without having a realistic chance of actually winning it due to bad defending and/or too much inexperience.
HJK changed a lot of players pre-season and not really by choice either with the likes of Pukki, Ring, and Bah all being poached from them. However, their new-look side is finally starting to gel and they’ve re-discovered that irrefutable HJK efficiency that no other Veikkausliiga club possesses. I mean, seriously – how many other sides would have won six out of eight Veikkausliiga games having lost some seven regulars pre-season? They’ve got a top boss in Muurinen, of course, but the way this squad gels and manages to win games efficiently is just unbelievable. Quality-wise, they’re still more than good enough to win it and with everyone playing as a unit right now, I certainly wouldn’t bet against it occurring. They need some big displays for Pelvas and Makela whilst Sadik is out as to avoid the pressure on Pohjanpalo up front and for Seb Sorsa to adapt to the right-back role more but aside from that, this side is raring to go. It looks increasingly likely that it’ll be between HJK and the two Turku clubs this season and with HJK already trailing Inter Turku (albeit on goal difference – Inter still have a game in hand though), it’s important that they keep winning. HJK have already won four out of four at home this season whilst averaging scoring nearly three goals per game and with the difficult artificial turf at the Sonera confronting an inexperienced Honka side here, not to mention a superior HJK side, you have to favour the hosts here.
HJK poached two of Honka’s best players pre-season, ironically, with Schuller and Savage both moving to Helsinki. Honka have subsequently been left with Dudu, Otaru, and Petrescu to save their season. To be fair, they’re all capable of doing so but it’s just not enough for a long season. Lekhosuo would love to get one over on his old club but he’s got a very young and inexperienced squad at his disposal, not to mention an awful defence. You could argue that Honka enter this game with some momentum following back-to-back Veikkausliiga wins, I guess. However, I’d counter it with the fact that Honka have been convincing exactly zero times this season and that their two recent wins came about because Jaro don’t score goals and because MyPa were very unlucky. Credit to Honka for finally climbing aboard the points ladder but they’ve got a long way to go before I’m convinced to back them.
Honka always play better away form home than they do in Espoo but they’re facing a superior side on a very springy artificial turf and with a lot of inexperienced players in this Honka line-up, you have to fancy HJK to sweep them aside in their typically efficient fashion. For me, the -1 Asian Handicap looks appealing at 9/10.
Verdict: HJK Helsinki to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Additional games
TPS Turku vs JJK Jyvaskyla – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 19/10.
Long odds, but this is one I like a lot, despite being an advocate of JJK Jyvaskyla. Why? Well, this game is absolutely perfect to bring the best out of TPS Turku because they’ll get every opportunity possible to unleash their deadly counter-attacking weapons. JJK do not defend because they are simply terrible at it. Look what happened when they hosted IFK Mariehamn last match, for example. IFK rarely score goals away from home because they’re not very good at it. Good old JJK, though – they gave IFK two goals and beat them 5-2. That’s simply JJK’s style and to be fair, they are playing to their strengths. They’ve got an awesome midfield and they almost always score goals. TPS are the model of efficiency, though, surpassed only by HJK this season. They’ve strengthened at the back and are already a quality side when it comes to finishing chances. All they need to perfect is their ability to break sides down as that has been their Achilles Heel this season. That said, that really shouldn’t be a problem here as JJK are very much a gung-ho attacking side. I’d like to believe that JJK could get a positive result here with their attacking football but I just don’t see it. TPS will have to play badly for that to happen, in my view. I expect JJK to have their fair share of the chances but for TPS to counter-attack with their usual devastating manner and to make it count. I expect a scoreline along the lines of 3-1 so my call is for TPS to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 19/10.
Verdict: TPS Turku to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 19/10.
KuPS Kuopio vs Haka Valkeakoski – under 2.5 goals at evens.
This should be an interesting game and I’m not entirely sure what to expect from it from a 1×2 perspective. KuPS are the better side here, no question, but that doesn’t tend to matter where Haka are concerned as it’s only their inferior opponents that they don’t usually show up for. KuPS are the perfect side for Haka to beat as they’re very disjointed and their heads drop rather easily, 75% of the time. However, in the other 25% of the time, KuPS are good enough to beat anyone in the Veikkausliiga and Haka are far from unbeatable. They’re plucky, well-organised, battlers but they’re not especially talented, Haka. KuPS actually are talented and usually find goals one way or another due to their varied attacking options. KuPS’ defence is suicidal for the majority of the time but Haka’s attack is far from golden so it’s hard to see either side running riot here. I could accept a 1-0, 1-1, or 0-1 scoreline as possible outcomes here, based on what I’ve seen of both sides so far this season. The only danger to that is if KuPS turn it on and batter Haka but the chances are are pretty slim of that occurring so I expect this game to go under 2.5 goals with KuPS failing to perform as a unit and Haka always performing as a unit but rarely scoring enough goals for it to matter.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
IFK Mariehamn vs Inter Turku – away win at evens.
You won’t often find me opposing IFK Mariehamn in Aland because they’re tough to play there. The fans get behind them, they play with more enthusiasm than they do on the road, and they generally obtain good results in one way or another. However, I can’t lie and pretend that IFK Mariehamn are a particularly good side because they’re not. They’re a mid-table side for me who will occasionally upset the apple cart with a positive result against a big club at home but nothing more than that. However, we have to appreciate that all of their attacking creativity goes through Forsell in midfield and he’s a big doubt for this game. If he doesn’t play, IFK Mariehamn’s chances of scoring against this surprisingly well-organised Inter Turku side are slender at best. They’ll work hard but Dragtsma has been here often enough to know how to counter that. Inter Turku are very good at counter-attacking but they’re also good at attacking and breaking sides down, unlike bitter rivals TPS Turku. They have a lot of quality in a lot of areas, which is what makes them such a good contender for the Veikkausliiga title. Only a late HJK goal has robbed Inter Turku of their unbeaten run away from home in the Veikkausliiga this and I’ll be surprised to see that record increased to back-to-back defeats today despite the difficulty of playing in Aland. Inter are the perfect counter-attacking side at the moment; they keep clean sheets and they convert their chances when they’re presented with them. I can’t see IFK Mariehamn being smart enough to deal with them with the above in mind. They might upset their opponents with some physical play and maybe they’ll get lucky and poach a goal but Inter are more than capable of scoring a couple of goals today. Therefore, my call is for Inter to win at evens.
Verdict: Inter Turku to win at evens.
Viikingit Helsinki vs KooTeePee Kotka – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Neither of these two sides have been impressive in their last couple of Ykkonen games but at least with KooTeePee you know that they have the quality to bounce back at some stage. With Viikingit, it’s hard to know where to start with their newbies not doing the business. Viikingit look a bit like an Ykkonen version of FC Honka Espoo with inexperience costing them points in each round of fixtures and a lack of finesse in front of goal meaning that they’re not scoring enough goals themselves. It’s a bad place to be and thus it’s no surprise that Viikingit have already lost against two supposed promotion rivals this season, although I have to say that it’s hard to see Viikingit entering that battle themselves without drastic improvement. KooTeePee could be up there but they need to apply the motivation that they had for the first two games of the season in every game that they play and realise that it’s a long season; it’s not simply over in a matter of months. Quality-wise, KooTeePee have more going forward than their hosts and they’re more than good enough to hold a lead. Barring Viikingit taking a surprise lead, I’m confident in KooTeePee scoring at least once here and holding it. For me, KooTeePee are worth taking with draw no bet at long odds of 6/5.
Verdict: KooTeePee Kotka to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Hameenlinna vs SJK – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
Hameenlinna have preferred playing counter-attacking football on the road in recent Ykkonen seasons to bring about enough points to see them avoid the drop to the Kakkonen. However, this season, Hameenlinna have been terrible both at home and on the road, which really doesn’t bode well for them. Most sides rely on their home games for points to avoid the drop but Hameenlinna just can’t do that, for some strange reason. They’ve no capacity to keep opponents out and whilst they’re not scoring goals, they’re losing games – comfortably, too. Hameenlinna heads have dropped rapidly and they’re not looking likely to take points off anyone, let alone a side that is frankly a lot better than they are.
Cue the entrance of SJK! Although new to the Ykkonen, they’re now playing as if they’ve been here for years, scoring goals at will and claiming unexpected points. They won 2-1 against PK-35 Helsinki in their last game to demonstrate their promotion aspirations and why not indeed – they’ve got the money and they’ve certainly got the personnel. SJK have more Veikkausliiga experience in their side than their hosts do, which is amusing when you consider that SJK were a Kakkonen side last season. Despite not being the most sound of sides defensively, SJK have been scoring goals for fun and I don’t see that stopping here following their morale-boosting win last time out.
The hosts may register a goal against SJK here which is why I advise you to take the Asian Handicap rather than the European Handicap. However, barring an awful display from SJK, I don’t see this tip losing today. I fancy SJK to score a few goals against a shell-shocked and vulnerable Hameenlinna defence so for me, the -1 Asian Handicap is worth a punt at 7/5.
Verdict: SJK to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
PK-35 Helsinki vs AC Oulu – home win at 5/6.
Although these two sides are both title rivals, I massively favour PK-35 in this game and it’s not hard to work out why; goals. PK-35 made a lot of changes pre-season but the way that they’ve gelled is quite phenomenal with PK-35 looking excellent for the vast majority of their games thus far, bagging an impressive fourteen goals in four games. Only title rivals SJK have beaten them so far this season with RoPS Rovaniemi forced to settle for a draw and both Viikingit and Hameenlinna having been put to the sword. PK-35 still have some distance to go but on their artificial turf with firepower a-plenty in their new-look squad, I fancy PK-35 to do the business here.
AC Oulu look more familiar this season than PK-35 do in the sense that we know what to expect from them as not much has changed. Yes, they’ve still got the experience that they need to frustrate sides and yes, they’ll probably be in the promotion race. However, this side still cannot score goals for shit, unfortunately, and it’s going to cost them. Last season, AC Oulu fell apart when star striker Stafsula returned to Albania for a month for his brother’s wedding but as soon as he came back, they were scoring goals for fun. It’s really no coincidence that that happened and Stafsula isn’t that great a striker, just to put things into perspective. How many times are AC Oulu going to have to rely on a sublime set piece from Nurmela to bail them out? He’s 40 years old now! This AC Oulu side is not easy to beat but they’re making themselves easy to beat by not scoring goals on a regular basis. It’s alright that they’re spontaneously turning up for their derby games but this side has a lot of problems scoring goals and I don’t envision this trip to Helsinki being a pleasurable one with that in mind.
For me, PK-35 are well worth taking at 5/6.
Verdict: PK-35 Helsinki to win at 5/6.
GIF Sundsvall vs Elfsborg Boras – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Now this should be a fascinating game for various reasons and I’ll explain why.
GIF Sundsvall have played good football for a few games now and they finally got their just reward with an unexpected 1-2 win at GAIS Goteborg. They keep the ball well and do create chances, GIF Sundsvall, but they need that bit of luck to make it count more often than not. Their defence isn’t the best but they’re overall a rather spirited and dangerous side, in my view.
Elfsborg Boras are leading the Allsvenskan table but I’m wondering as to whether that’s a little misleading. I’m not saying that Elfsborg aren’t a top side in Sweden because they are; they’re one of the best sides in it alongside Malmo FF and IFK Goteborg, for my money, and yes, I am excluding the current Helsingborg side from that list. What I mean is that out of Elfsborg’s eight wins this season, all eight of them have been on…artificial turf, which is what Elfsborg use in their home games. Their other two games this season have been played away from home on natural turf and would you believe it – Elfsborg have lost both games. Now, Elfsborg have taken on Helsingborg and Malmo FF respectively, which are two of the hardest away games in the Allsvenskan, so let’s give Elfsborg some credit here. However, this side generally doesn’t travel well in the Allsvenskan and I’m not sure that they’re good enough to beat GIF Sundsvall today, based on what I saw against Malmo FF.
Again, this is a different game for Elfsborg as they’re the better side with better players, more experience etc. However, Elfsborg did very little to Malmo last match and I’d argue the point that GIF Sundsvall actually have a better defensive shape than Malmo FF so how do Elfsborg hope to change things around here? They’ve got the class and the finesse to win the game, sure, but is it worth betting on? I don’t think so.
That’s why this is an interesting game, really. The underdogs are playing well and the visitors are being portrayed to look a little better than they actually are. I wouldn’t dare bet on the 1×2 market as either side edging this would not surprise me. However, I’m going to take under 2.5 goals because Elfsborg have looked scarily reliable at the back on the road this season and GIF Sundsvall do have a flaw in that they don’t take anywhere near as many of their chances as they should do. Therefore, my call is for this game to go under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
GAIS Goteborg vs IFK Goteborg – over 2.5 goals at evens.
You know something? This is the type of game that GAIS Goteborg will win 3-1. I’m tempted to take them with draw no bet, actually, but I’ll wait for in-play action before making up my mind.
Why would GAIS show up here? Well, not only because it’s a derby but because they’re playing a superior side and that always, always brings out the best in GAIS. It’s no coincidence that some of GAIS’ best displays this season have been at Helsingborg, Kalmar FF, and at Elfsborg Boras whilst managing to somehow lose against GIF Sundsvall at home and Syrianska Sodertalje on the road. GAIS have serious issues with their average motivation but for games like these, they tend to be up for it. Wanderson, Celik, Romarinho, Ayarna – GAIS have more than enough attacking power to win this game. All they need to do is work hard and I think that they will. I still don’t trust their defence because they concede so many random goals but they’re always capable of scoring them too.
IFK Goteborg are gelling more and more as the weeks go by and realistically speaking, they should be winning this game, derby or not. They’ve got a better side at their disposal than their hosts and they’ve got plenty of firepower to boot. However, this is the kind of game that IFK Goteborg make a mess of because they’re favourites and they don’t like being favourites. They tend to not start playing well until they concede in games like these and by then it’s often too late. It’s been too easy to score against IFK Goteborg in recent weeks but the good news is that they’re scoring goals on a more regular basis and that has to be encouraging for the sleeping giants of the Allsvenskan.
Again, IFK Goteborg should be winning this game. Call it what you will, though – superstition, instinct, whatever – I just feel that GAIS will do something here, hence me not betting on the 1×2 market pre-game. However, I do like the prospect of this game going over 2.5 goals because the odds are very long when you consider that both sides concede daft goals and that both sides specialise in attacking and scoring goals. For me, over 2.5 goals is priced too generously at evens and thus that’s my call here with the above in mind.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Angelholm vs Falkenberg – home win at 9/10.
The tiny town of Angelholm is proving to be the place to not go in Superettan football this season with the determined hosts having already won three out of three games this season, despite taking on promotion contenders Assyriska Sodertalje and Landskrona BoIS respectively. Angelholm are still a mid-table Superettan side in my eyes but their attack is deceptively good with ex-Helsingborg striker Straaf and emerging youngster Karlsson looking rather promising this season. This squad is rather thin and injuries will hurt them more than most but with momentum on their side and strong home form leading them into this game, I fancy Angelhom to do well today.
I especially like this one as Falkenberg just can’t score goals. It doesn’t matter who they face – they struggle to convert their chances. Now, I will give Falkenberg credit because they shouldn’t be where they are in the table. In reality, they’re a decent side too and their defensive record reflects that perfectly well. However, this side simply will not score goals and have actually failed to score in all three of their Superettan away games this season. Rodevag might well have been their top goalscorer last season but it’s Boman who did a lot of the work, hence his transfer to Halmstad having affected Falkenberg much more than they’d anticipated. Falkenberg still have good players and aren’t easy to beat but I fancy Angelholm’s talented attacking duo to score today and if they do then Falkenberg are in trouble.
As long as the visitors don’t score the first goal here then I’m happy to take Angelholm to win this game at 9/10.
Verdict: Angelholm to win at 9/10.
Landskrona BoIS vs Hammarby – home win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Hammarby have only had two days to prepare for this game, which isn’t ideal. Their statistics look very strong this season as they’ve demonstrated the ability to win without conceding rather well, which is somewhat unheard of in the Superettan. However, what they lack is regular goalscoring and that will cost them in some games. We saw that in their game with Assyriska Sodertalje on Friday night. Assyriska aren’t a better side than Hammarby, per se – I personally view them as being rather well-matched. Assyriska didn’t have to do anything special to win the game at Hammarby, though – they just played their usual attacking game and Hammarby couldn’t handle it. There are sides in the Superettan that Hammarby will have no problem in keeping out but attacking sides like Assyriska are not on that list and nor are Landskrona BoIS, for that matter, at least not in my opinion! Landskrona are not the most reliable of sides but Henrik Larsson’s team know how to score goals and with the ex-Celtic legend as their boss, that’s not really a surprise, is it? Landskrona always have goals in them; they just need to tighten up at the back to push themselves up the table and start vying for a place in the Allsvenskan next season. That’s easier said than done, of course, and I don’t think that Landskrona will manage it, for what it’s worth. I just don’t rate their consistency enough for them to earn promotion. However, they’re hosting a Hammarby side that have had little preparation for this game, not to mention a substantial journey to the far south-west of Sweden, and therefore I fancy Hammarby to struggle here.
Landskrona have a lot of spirit when playing at home, which is helped by their passionate supporters. They’re dubious defensively but lethal offensively, hence them overcoming Assyriska Sodertalje already this season. If Landskrona score first here then I really fancy them to get something off a Hammarby side that is likely to be tired here. The only time that Hammarby have come from behind to win a game this season was at newly-promoted Umea and I don’t think that even Landskrona are naive enough to let that happen. For me, Landskrona are worth taking to win this one with draw no bet at 5/6.
Verdict: Landskrona BoIS to win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Team news
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Jaro Pietarsaari – Brunell, Aho, Emet, and Vasilijev are absent.
FC Lahti – No news.
HJK Helsinki – Sadik is absent.
FC Honka Espoo – Rexhepi is absent.
IFK Mariehamn – Forsell is a doubt.
Inter Turku – Parviainen and Diallo are absent. Kauko is a doubt.
KuPS Kuopio – Zahovaiko is absent. Berg, Purje, and Hoivala are doubts.
Haka Valkeakoski – McFarul is absent. Ojanpera, Mattila, Sanevuori, and Luoto are doubts. Karvonen may debutise.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Ramadingaye is absent. Aho is a doubt. Gela returns.
VPS Vaasa – Bjork and Jibrin are absent. O’Neil is a doubt. Koskimaa and Coundoul return.
TPS Turku – Lehtovaara is absent.
JJK Jyvaskyla – No news.
Finnish Ykkonen:
Hameenlinna – Latosaari and Tuomenoja are absent. Hertsi is a doubt.
SJK – Pat Phelan may debutise.
OPS Oulu – No news.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Turcios is absent.
PK-35 Helsinki – Gomez, Fidan Sefer, Faton Sefer, Arinze, and Oravainen return.
AC Oulu – No news.
Viikingit Helsinki – No news.
KooTeePee Kotka – Lomidze and Yammeh are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GIF Sundsvall – Skulason is absent.
Elfsborg Boras – Elm is absent. J.Jonsson is a doubt. Ishizaki returns.
GAIS Goteborg – No news.
IFK Goteborg – Haglund is absent.