TFT Issue 407!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Toulon Tournament
Well, this is rapidly becoming irritating, isn’t it? I’m getting really pissed off with the bookies not putting up odds in time for me to update your good selves with where the value is in these games. I’ll have to try and sort something out but bear with me in the meantime.
Morocco vs Mexico
It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to work out that I favour Mexico here, based on my preview yesterday. Don’t go crazy, though – these kids are able to fuck things up by being nervous and not many can go from the sublime to the ridiculous quite like Mexico. They’re unquestionably the better side with some terrific players and should cruise to a win here. However, I’d feel more comfortable if they had a tough game because I question their application when it’s not really required to be the better side. I fancy a nervy 1-2 or 0-1 instead of the dominating 0-3 that it realistically should be. Don’t get me wrong here – Mexico not winning this game would be a big surprise to me and a big fail on their part. Mexico are very proud of its footballers and they tend to have enough in the tank to win games like these but the handicaps concern me. Anything at 4/5 or longer is a steal for the Mexico win and anything at 13/10 or longer is a steal for the -1 Asian Handicap. I can’t help but feel that the golden odds will be in-play, though.
France vs Belarus
This is the game of the day, for me. The hosts entertain a very good Belarus side and I have a feeling that the bookies will make France too short here. Based on the two squads, pricing France at 4/5 or shorter is too short here and laying them should be a good value bet. Belarus brought an awful lot of talented players with them to this tournament and they have terrific cohesion. They’ve easily got the best defence in the tournament and they can keep a rather youthful France side out here unless Germain etc. unlock the door. Laying France interests me here if the bookies fall into the trap that I expect them to but if not then under 2.5 goals at 5/6 is well worth a bet, if the odds are at 5/6 or longer, anyway.
Featured game
JJK Jyvaskyla vs Jaro Pietarsaari – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga game in central Finland between JJK Jyvaskyla and Jaro Pietarsaari.
Although as samba as hell and defensively inept, I’m absolutely in love with taking JJK -1 AH here. I was impressed with JJK’s display at TPS in Turku in their last game, against the odds, although an average TPS display certainly aided them. Nonetheless, few sides will bag three goals in Turku this season unless it’s Inter or TPS so full credit to JJK. That’s what I admire about them, really – they score goals as that’s what they’re best at. Their midfield is terrifying when it’s allowed to roam and this side will always, always score goals. Defensively, there’s not a side in the Veikkausliiga that JJK can actually keep out. Only a bad display from their opponents in front of goal gives JJK clean sheets. However, few sides can rival JJK’s ability to put the ball in the net and that interests me a lot here.
Why? Simple; Jaro aren’t scoring goals and they aren’t creating chances. Spirit? Check. Good manager? Check. Good goalscorer? Check. Creativity? Nooooooooo! I like boss Eremenko a lot and it’s a good job that his players to too because without that belief, they’re fucked. I still have faith in them turning around their league placing and doing enough to survive but there’s no sign of it yet. Poor Niang is feeding on scraps up front and Jaro are getting beaten from pillar to post due to not creating nor scoring chances. Their defence isn’t that bad in general but it does have an unfortunate habit to capitulate at the most inconvenient of times, resulting in Jaro being demolished (e.g. in their game at HJK or at Haka too). Jaro are a capable side and if they were playing well enough to get points but were being unlucky then I’d probably avoid this bet. However, the fact is that Jaro have earned their Veikkausliiga placing by doing nothing in the final third and taking that approach with a superior and very potent JJK side is a very bad idea.
I just can’t see anything happening here other than JJK going to town on Jaro. Jaro may well score – most sides do against JJK – but I thoroughly expect JJK to score at least three themselves. For me, the -1 Asian Handicap is a complete steal at evens.
Verdict: JJK Jyvaskyla to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Additional games
VPS Vaasa vs HJK Helsinki – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
People are falling over themselves to back HJK here and although I can understand it, I can’t really condone it. HJK’s form of late has been very impressive and they’re absolutely better than VPS Vaasa, no questions asked. However, I have my reservations about them winning here, as you’ll see below.
The first thing you have to understand is that every league in the world has a location that produces strange results. For the Veikkausliiga, it’s in Vaasa. Considering that VPS aren’t a very talented side, they tend to do very well in keeping themselves out of the Ykkonen. They’re well-organised, physical, and strong. They’re also very highly-motivated against the bigger sides, as we’ve already seen on numerous occasions this season. They’ve frustrated the hell out of TPS Turku in Turku, drawn with Honka in Espoo, and beaten JJK in Jyvaskyla, just to give you an idea of how much this side picks themselves up for those games. They’re not good in front of goal, sadly – scoring goals is a big problem for them – but they’re very well-organised and you’ll rarely find them producing a half-assed display at home. I fancy them to rise to the challenge today and it’s up to HJK to match it. I’ve no doubt over the quality of HJK and the ability that they have to win games but I have my doubts as to whether the squad has galvanised enough or whether it’s experienced enough to win in Vaasa today. Last season’s squad – no problem at all. This season, though – we’ll just have to wait and see. Realistically speaking, you have to expect HJK to win this one by a goal or two but I’m not so sure they’ll do it so I’m avoiding the potential minefield that is Vaasa.
HJK actually have a pretty good record here, all things considered. However, that’s more down to their professionalism and experience than anything. Most games here are tight, even if the scorelines don’t reflect it. Last season’s game here was tight too – I remember watching it – but 0-2 always looks comprehensive, doesn’t it? I’d endorse taking HJK to win to nil rather than taking them to win as it’d be better odds and it’s the only way they’ll win here, in my view. If they’re daft enough to concede in this game then they’re daft enough to not win it as VPS will take a lot of heart from it. Rather than get involved in the 1×2 market, however, I’d much rather take under 2.5 goals at 4/5. Whether HJK show up or not, I expect them to keep a clean sheet here and I’m not sure they’re good enough to bag three goals in Vaasa without assistance, hence me going under 2.5 goals for this game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
KooTeePee Kotka vs SJK – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Pick a winner here at your own peril but I’m all over under 2.5 goals. KooTeePee forged themselves a reputation by being hard to beat and that’s still applicable now. Kotka possesses a crap pitch that few sides can play on but given their own inability to convert chances right now, it’s hard to see the hosts doing well. Striker Weaver keeps saying how tired KooTeePee are due to their congested fixture list and he may have a point, although he may gain more respect and admiration had he mentioned this half-way through the season rather than in the opening couple of months. Nonetheless, KooTeePee do not have a big squad so it’s quite probable that they’re tired. They’ve got a tough game today, too. SJK have done really well following their promotion from the Kakkonen and they’ll be keen to maintain their excellent run of form. One slight problem; poacher Lehtinen is out today. He’s not a great striker but at this level, he may as well be Klaas-Jan Huntelaar as far as I’m concerned. SJK will miss him, especially on a tough pitch in Kotka against a very well-organised unit. For me, there’s no value in taking either side to win but there’s plenty in taking under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Molde FK vs Tromso – home win at 4/5.
I can’t lie to you, gents – I’ve no idea why Molde are as long as 4/5 here. It really doesn’t make any sense to me at all. Molde are absolute monsters at home; they score goals for fun and press for the whole game. They’re liable to concede goals against sides that have the capacity to score them but Tromso are not in that bracket. Tromso are shit away from home and it’s no coincidence that the only two goals that they’ve scored on the road this season came on artificial turf against Odd Grenland, which is coincidentally the same turf that they use in their home games. Tromso hate playing on natural turf and the sale of Abdellaoue harms Tromso even more on the road than it does at home. Yeah, they stuffed Viking 5-1 in their last game but so what? Viking have been awful lately and the fact that Tromso scored just under a third of their goals for the whole season (after ten games) in that one game speaks volumes as to where their problems like. Tromso are not an easy side to play against; they’re in the title race nowadays because they defend well and know how to beat lesser sides. Quality-wise, though, they’re still inferior to Molde and they cannot match them for the goals that the talented hosts will undoubtedly score. There’s more than enough in the Molde ranks to see them win here. 4/5 on the home win is a pure bargain to me.
Verdict: Molde FK to win at 4/5.
GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
It seems that everyone is clambering aboard the Malmo train and with statistics showing a 0-3 Elfsborg win in GIF’s last home game, I can understand that. However, I’m not a statistics whore; you guys know that by now. I’d like to offer a more realistic insight as to what to expect here.
First of all, Malmo are definitely the better side here. If they’re properly motivated and organised then they can win this game 0-5 – no exaggeration. However, I can count the number of times on one hand that the above combination happens per season for Malmo and I can also count the number of times on one hand that Malmo show up against inferior sides. Let’s not overlook how many goals this Malmo side actually concedes, yeah? They’re lazy at the back and thus they ship goals. I suppose it’s natural to become complacent when you’ve got what is easily the best attack in the Allsvenskan, for my money.
Just look at Malmo’s results, though – 3-0 win against Helsingborg, 2-2 at IFK Goteborg, 1-0 against Elfsborg Boras – they’re all great results. What about the lesser sides, though? A very unconvincing 2-1 against Atvidaberg, a 2-2 draw at Mjallby despite possesing a 0-2 lead, a 3-2 defeat at a motivated IFK Norrkoping side. Are you seeing the pattern here? It’s very rare that Malmo actually give a shit about sides like GIF and that’s a dangerous mistake to make.
GIF got beat 0-3 by Elfsborg last match; so what? Elfsborg deserved their win but it also flattered them. GIF stupidly gave themselves up after the first goal and I daren’t even show you the second goal that they conceded because it was just awful. GIF don’t have a good defence and any side coming up from the Superettan tends to have the same issue. However, they’re surprisingly good at knocking the ball around and creating chances. They do miss a good finisher but they bring far more to the table than they’re given credit for and thus you should punch anyone in the face who tells you that Malmo is a banker today because it’s not, especially with half of Malmo’s defence out today.
Malmo are awesome at home. They’re unplayable then. Away from home, though, they’re not the same side. They’re vulnerable and their concentration is particularly questionably. GIF Sundsvall are always focused and hard-working so as long as they convert their chances and don’t let their heads drop following their defeat against Elfsborg, I fancy them to give Malmo a tough game here. Unless watching this game live, I can only advise taking over 2.5 goals at 5/6 or not betting on the game at all.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Elfsborg Boras vs BK Hacken Goteborg – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
It’s long shot of the day time! For the safer gamblers amongst you, the home win also represents decent value here but I’m going one step further today and I’ll explain why.
For me, this game is men versus boys. On paper, Hacken look to be the top dogs in the Allsvenskan right now, leading the goalscoring charts and playing some attractive football. In reality, Elfsborg are twice the side that Hacken are, which is why the odds interest me such a lot today.
Elfsborg are absolute dynamite in Boras. If you find an away side winning here then it’s simply not your day, basically. The artificial turf, their fans, and their excellent squad of players makes this one of the hardest away games in Sweden to play in. I can reel off a whole host of talented attacking players in this Elfsborg side and the fact that their defence has improved is even more terrifying as sides are finding it very hard to deal with this Elfsborg 4-4-2 that they’ve started using. They’re ruthless in front of goal and no longer need to play well to win games convincingly, which has happened a few times already this season. Give Elfsborg a chance to score and they will. The side that falls behind won’t recover, though – that’s how good Elfsborg are at this level. For me, they’ve simply got too much ability and experience to not win this game.
Hacken are bad defensively. They really can be torn apart by the right side and Elfsborg could well be that side. Hacken were below-par in their 1-1 draw against Djurgarden lately and had DIF not allowed Makondele the freedom of the pitch then Hacken would have lost that game. I admire the newfound potency that Hacken have right now but if the bookies think that they have a chance in Boras then they’re barking up the wrong tree, in my view. Hacken are not a patch on Elfsborg and their record against the bigger clubs this season is predictable as they’ve given a good fight but always lost, losing at Helsingborg and at home against IFK Goteborg already this season. Hacken can cause Elfsborg problems today but I struggle to envision it, as strange as that may sound. Hacken love counter-attacks but struggle to hold the ball up when attacking normally (big problem against Elfsborg if Elfsborg take the lead as Elfsborg will just pick them off) and don’t have the experience to defend a lead. They may score here, Hacken, and fair play to them if they do. However, I don’t see them leaving Boras without conceding at least twice and thus taking the Elfsborg handicap looks intriguing today.
For me, taking Elfsborg to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5 looks appealing due to its long odds and the superiority that the hosts possess makes it well worth a flutter.
Verdict: Elfsborg Boras to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
Team news
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo – Rexhepi is absent.
KuPS Kuopio – Kupiainen, Hoivala, Zahovaiko, and Koljonen are absent.
Inter Turku – Diallo and Parviainen are absent. Kauko and Nikkari are doubts.
Haka Valkeakoski – McFarul is absent. Robinson, Sanevuori, Luoto, Dema, Ojanpera, and Pesonen are doubts.
FC Lahti – Kose and Backman are absent. Shala and Rantanen are doubts.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Lody is absent. Ramadingaye returns.
IFK Mariehamn – Kangaskolkka is a doubt.
TPS Turku – Rahmonen and Lehtovaara are absent.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Grossenmichen is absent. van Gelderen is a doubt.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Aho, Brunell, Emet, and Agyeman are absent. Vasiljev returns.
VPS Vaasa – Bjork, Jibrin, and Henriksson are absent. Kevari returns.
HJK Helsinki – Sadik, Sahlgren, and Saskela are absent.
Finnish Ykkonen:
KooTeePee Kotka – Lomidze and Yammeh are absent.
SJK – Toni Lehtinen and Phelan are absent. Cleaver, Hosio, Tilitus Lehtinen, and Penninkangas are doubts. Caumo returns.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Haugesund – Maeland and Pozniak are absent.
Honefoss – Gjermundstad, Riski, and Mendy are absent.
Lillestrom – Kippe, Gulbrandsen, Toindouba, Vaagan Moen, and Midtgarden are absent.
Aalesund FK – Leke James, Sellin, Matland, Barrantes, Carlsen, and Myklebust are absent.
Molde FK – Stensild and Ekpo are absent.
Tromso – Sahlman, Bendiksen, and Yndestad are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
AIK Solna – Milosevic is absent.
GAIS Goteborg – Wanderson, Gustafsson, and Aubynn are absent.
Elfsborg Boras – No news.
BK Hacken Goteborg – No news.
IFK Goteborg – H.Jonsson, S.Larsson, and Dyrestam are absent.
Kalmar FF – Solheim, Daniel Mendes, Carlsson, and Sjostedt are absent.
GIF Sundsvall – No news.
Malmo FF – Ricardinho, Albornoz, and Lewicki are absent. Wilton, Friberg, and Nazari are doubts.