TFT Issue 408!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Toulon Tournament:
After pushing a few buttons, I’ve convinced Bet365 to put odds up the night before today’s games. Hurrah!
Japan vs Netherlands
Now that the bookies have worked out that Netherlands are better than Egypt, they’ve finally applied some realistic odds to them beating Japan today. 8/11 looks fair enough to me, to be honest. I don’t see much value in this one. The -1 Asian Handicap would interest me but odds aren’t out for that option at the moment. The straight win is short enough to put me off in a game where rotation is mandatory, given that finalists will most likely compete in five games over seven days. It’s long enough to keep me interested, though. Japan worked hard against Turkey but pace down the flanks and a bit of suspect positioning cost them the game. Netherlands have more than enough to score a couple of goals here so aside from the handicap, I have no interest in betting on this game.
Egypt vs Turkey
I can get a little more excited about this game though, because Turkey are better than Egypt. I wouldn’t drop below evens to back it but evens itself is good enough to take. Turkey exploited Japan well enough when they chose to and I think that we’ll see much of the same here. Egypt demonstrated how easily they can lose their rags last match and they were also very suspect defensively, conceding goals due to poor offside traps, bad marking, and frankly ineffectual defending as a whole. Don’t rule Egpyt out from scoring here but I’ll be surprised if Turkey don’t score more than they do with the pace and quality that they have.
Featured game:
Belgium vs Montenegro – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the International Friendly between Belgium and Montenegro.
Although Montenegro are notoriously hard to beat, I have to admit that I’m all over Belgium to win this one. They’ve named their starting eleven already – Courtois, Odoi, Aiderweireld, Vertonghen, Lombaerts, Fellaini, Witsel, Hazard, Miralles, Mertens, de Camargo – and have a reason to win this game as it’s ex-Belgium legend Marc Wilmots’ first game in charge of the country following Leekens’ departure to manage Club Brugge. The players will out to impress here as he’s very much and all-or-nothing boss and I think his line-up suggests that. Although Kompany is easily the best defender that Belgium possess, the decision to play Aiderwereld and Vertonghen is a smart one as they’ve been a real rock for Ajax this season. Fellaini, Hazard, and Witsel is a devastating midfield and whilst Miralles and Mertens drop off big de Camargo to help them out, you have to feel that Belgium not only have a very mobile but also a very attack-minded side. Naivety of the younger players could be an issue here as Montenegro defend like pros but I still think that Belgium have enough options to make it count here.
Although I respect Montenegro, I have my doubts that they can get a positive result here. First of all, instrumental attacker/playmaker Jovetic is not with the squad. Branko Boskovic has joined him on the sidelines, as has Mitar Novakovic. Not only does this rob Montenegro of a lot of experience but it also robs them of the core of their midfield. Their hopes are now pinned on Simon Vukcevic and I don’t even remember when he last played for either club or country! Delibasic and especially Vucinic are very able strikers when given the chance to score but I struggle to see where Montenegro will generate chances from today with no specific attacking outlets available in midfield. Defensively, Montenegro are still very strong and it may take some time for Belgium to break through but I do expect them to manage it eventually.
For me, taking Belgium to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10 is very appealing. I don’t see them not winning the game, for starters, they have more motivation than Montenegro, and they have more quality players available to them.
Verdict: Belgium to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Additional game
Croatia vs Estonia – away win with +2 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
This tip is a little more risky but I like it nonetheless. Croatia are way too short against arguably the best Estonia side in years, in my view. I’ve recently documented my thoughts regarding Croatia doing well at the European Championships on another site because I believe that they have a superb balance to them. However, Slaven Bilic has admitted that the squad he fields today will “not be the same as the one that faces Ireland”, thus leading me to believe that he will rest players here. Why not, indeed – Croatia would always be expected to beat Estonia. Minnows Estonia! That’s interesting, isn’t it? Croatia have met Estonia three times over the past five years and haven’t had an easy game in any of those encounters, needing a luck of luck to win 0-1 in their European Championship Qualifier in Estonia and drawing 0-0 at Estonia in a friendly in 2010. Croatia beat Estonia 2-0 at home in 2007 but that’s the most that I expect them to get today. Estonia are not an easy side to play against right now and haven’t been for a year or two, either. Forget the results; watch the games. They’re physical, pacey, and have the perfect balance of experience, youth, finesse, and composure. The absence of Piiroja at the back is a big blow but Zahovaiko can be replaced by the clinical Saag so I’m not too concerned there. If Estonia concede early in the game then this tip could lose as Piiroja not being there to steady the ship could cause them to capitulate. However, aside from that scenario, I just don’t see this tip losing. Estonia are capable of causing an upset here with their excellent squad and playmaker Vassiljev has already stated that the team are taking this game far more seriously than the Baltic Cup that starts in a few days. I expect Estonia to at least score here and I don’t see Croatia scoring four goals so giving the visitors a +2 Asian Handicap at 9/10 whilst Croatia rest players really does look very appealing today.
Verdict: Estonia to win with +2 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Team news
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Dainava – S.Paulius is absent.
Suduva Marijampole – Ledesma is absent.
Zalgiris Vilnius – Jankauskas is absent.
Ekranas Panevezys – Velicka and Andjelkovic are doubts.