TFT Issue 409!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Toulon Tournament
France vs Mexico
Christ, I’ve seen some daft prices in this tournament but 9/10 on this game going over 2.5 goals really does take the biscuit! France were immense at breaking through a good Belarus defence and although the Eastern Europeans did make a few mistakes that night, credit must go to France for the way that they played. They were energetic, incisive, and clinical, with striker de Preville scoring the best of the bunch, which was arguably a contender for goal of the tournament for his exquisite control, touch, and finish. France are always good in this tournament and have an excellent youth system. Based on what I’ve seen thus far, they should win this tournament although time will tell as to whether it happens or not. Mexico could be surprised contenders but it depends which Mexico shows up. I mean, I said in my preview before their game with Morocco that it bothered me the way that Mexican sides let their guard down against complacency when facing inferior sides and that’s never been truer than in that game. Mexico were rarely out of control of the game but very nearly drew it thanks to some absolutely mind-bogglingly bad defending, as you can see from this video. The handball was perhaps harsh but the other two goals are shocking, which casts a shadow over what was frankly an excellent attacking display. I want to see Mexico do well here because the more I see of Fabian, the more I like him. His pace, strength, movement, and composure is quite outstanding and he stands out head-and-shoulders above most others in this tournament for that reason. Some players in this tournament are too good to be in it, just like James Rodriguez in the last tournament, and Fabian is up there. I really like this guy and look forward to seeing how France deal with such a good player. Fabian can upset them here and I think he will, too. That said, Mexico’s defence is vulnerable as hell and France are good enough to exploit that so I have to favour a home win for France. 10/11 is decent odds on the home win but I’d much rather take over 2.5 goals at 9/10 as I’ve not seen many bargains as good as this one.
Morocco vs Belarus
This one is a bit more dubious than the France vs Mexico game but I still like it a lot, pending the line-ups, of course. Morocco battled well against Mexico but wouldn’t have had chance to score three goals without Mexico gifting them chances each time with horrendous defending. Morocco will be very lucky if Belarus give them such options here, a side that is notorious for keeping opponents out. I hope Belarus name a strong defence again for this game as they should be far more successful against a determined but somewhat headless chicken-esque Morocco side. Belarus were undone by France thanks to an early goal, which was a beauty of a strike. Had that not happened, I feel that the game may have turned out differently. Morocco need to open Belarus up early on to win this one, in my view, and I’m not sure that they’re good enough to do it, based on what I’ve seen. The big question is whether Belarus can score against Morocco, really. However, despite goalscoring not being a particular strength of this Belarusian side, they’re facing a defensively inept side, as was proven innumerate times against Mexico. Belarus have the attacking pace to trouble Morocco and with that stupid high line that Morocco play, you have to feel that it’s only a matter of time before Skavysh gets in behind them and scores. Morocco have quick defenders but so what – it only takes a quick shot to get the goal in so it’s a very dicey game for Morocco to play, in my eyes. Either way, I have to favour a much more composed and well-organised Belarus side to win this one at 6/4.
Featured game
Finland vs Turkey – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the International Friendly in Austria between Finland and Turkey.
You tend to know what you’re getting with Finland. A side that packs midfield with good passers but only has one good wide man in Hamalainen. There are some excellent central midfielders in this side, however, and they can make it count in games like these. Aaritalo is missing up front for Finland but Pukki is available and his explosive style means that goals are never far away. Unfortunately for Finland, their defence is vulnerable against pace and guess what Turkey have a lot of? Yep – pace. Finland are good enough to score here as long as their central midfielders show up and Turkey are bad enough in games that they should easily win to concede daft goals here. That said, Turkey can score goals here too. They’ve rested a few of the bigger names up front in Senturk, Altintop, and Kazim-Richards. However, the massively in-form Burak Yilmiz is unsurprisingly in the squad and he’s more than good enough to score goals here with the right ammunition. Turkey have taken a good midfield to Austria for this game with Turan, Emre, Sahin, Altintop, Caner, and Topal all in contention. There’s enough energy and creativity there to upset the Finnish side but there’s also a few question marks over who will stop the Finns playing their game. Turkey’s defence is a bit of a joke and I fancy them to concede at least once here but Yilmaz should be able to score at least once too. With nothing to lose and everything to prove, I fancy this game to go over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional game
Switzerland vs Germany – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
So; how seriously are the Swiss taking this derby? Well, they’ve named a full-strength squad with the exception of Fiorentina engine Behrami so I’d say pretty seriously. There can’t be many that understand the way that the German national team plays than Switzerland boss Ottmar Hitzfeld, either. He’s an expert tactician as it is but he knows how Germany play better than anyone, in my view, so the Swiss do have a good chance of getting a shock result here, I feel. Star winger Barnetta has been missing in action most of this season but tends to turn it on at international level. Derdiyok is starting to fulfill his potential with Leverkusen and you don’t need me to tell you how good young, Bayern Munich-bound Shaqiri is either. This is a good Swiss side, in my view – it’s going to take a good display to beat them.
Still, Germany are good enough to do it, we have to admit. They’ve got some terrific players in their squad, especially in midfield. They’ve got two very experienced strikers with great movement and they’ve got a top-drawer midfield to boot, which means that Germany could and should be scoring goals in most games that they play in. Their defence leaves me cold, though – I’m not convinced with their full-backs and their centre-backs sometimes lack focus and thus their positioning is a mess. I think that the Swiss can capitalise on that today although I would imagine that the Germans would edge this one.
Despite Hitzfeld’s tactics generally steering the Swiss toward a defensive under 2.5 goals display, I feel that the Germans will contribute enough to send it over 2.5 goals. There should be plenty of rivalry here with a good number of the Swiss players plying their trade in Germany and thus I think that this game will mean more than the average friendly. Taking into account the attacking power on the field for both sides, I fancy this one to go over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
International Friendlies:
Norway – Parr, Carew, Rogne, and Nortveit are absent.
Bulgaria – M.Petrov, S.Petrov, Mihaylov, and Berbatov are absent. Galchev is a doubt.
Serbia – Line-up named as Brkic, D.Tosic, Subotic, Ivanovic, Kolarov, Basta, Petrovic, Radovanovic, Ljajic, Z.Tosic, and Lekic. New boss – Sinisa Mihaijlovic. Stankovic, Vidic, Zigic, Jovanovic, Ninkov, Markovic, Lukovic, Mijailjovic, and Krasic are absent.
Poland – Wawrzyniak is absent. Tyton and Fabianski are doubts. Interesting point that boss Smuda refuses to call up a third goalkeeper so if Fabianski and Tyton are absent then defender Dudka will be in net.
Czech Republic – Rosicky is absent. Plasil and Cech may be rested.
Israel – Awate is absent.
Greece – K.Papadopoulos is a doubt.
Finnish Ykkonen:
RoPS Rovaniemi – Turcios is absent. Kokko is a doubt.
HiFK Helsinki – Suikki, Tanner, Pyhala, Karkkainen, and Britschgi are absent.
OPS Oulu – Hyde and Prebiracevic are absent. Koponen and Raisanen are doubts.
Hameenlinna – Kalervo, Tuomenoja, and Latosaari are absent.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Vilnius – No news.
Atlantas – Raziulis and Arlauskis are absent.
Siauliai – Malinauskas is absent. Eliosius and Vezevicius are doubts.
Tauras Taurage – No news.