TFT Issue 42!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Today’s featured game is the Serbian Super Liga encounter between Spartak Subotica and Javor Ivanjica. Neither side are particularly easy to play against but some things happened over the January transfer window that makes this game interesting today.
Hosts Spartak Subotica have a fairly average home record in the Super Liga despite the fact that only Rad Belgrade plus the two giants of Serbian football – Partizan Belgrade and Red Star Belgrade – have scored more goals at home than they have. This is because Spartak’s defence is susceptible to say the least, shipping more goals at home than any side outside of the bottom three in the table. However, it’s worth pointing out that the only three sides to win at Spartak this season have been three of the better sides in the division this season – Red Star Belgrade, Vojvodina Novi Sad, and Rad Belgrade respectively – so Spartak aren’t an easy side to beat here, despite their best efforts to help their opponents out sometimes! Spartak’s biggest hurdle to overcome in this game was the sale of star striker Vojo Ubiparip to Lech Poznan in January. He was their leading goalscorer and they’ll miss him a lot. However, in games like today, I expect Miric to do the business is he gets the necessary support from ex-Partizan Belgrade midfielder Marinkovic and Montenegrin winger Nikolic, not to mention the promising Adamovic, so I think Spartak have enough to cause problems today, importantly.
The other side of the coin today is that Javor Ivanjica didn’t enjoy their transfer window whatsoever. They sold defender Dokic to Ruch Chorzow, goalkeeper Kahriman and defender Goric to Tavriya Simferopol, and star striker Odita to Tianjin Teda, all of which were regular starters for Javor. Javor’s reputation in the Super Liga is being hard to beat but with three of their key five defensive stalwarts having departed, it’s very hard for me to envision them maintaining that record in the near future. Javor’s strength has long been at home, much like most clubs in Serbia, and despite being one of the harder sides in the division to overcome, they’ve still lost four out of their eight away games, winning just twice along the way. Defensively, they’re a tough nut to crack – or were, should I say – but their problem has long been goalscoring and will continue to be if they sell players like Odita. Nigerian attacker Odita was initially one of Partizan Belgrade’s failed imports but the pacey frontman had the strength and pace to compliment Javor’s formation well but without him, I don’t see them scoring many at all. Javor signed Bosnian striker Hadzibulic from Besa Kavaje in Albania but I don’t see him being able to replace the powerful Odita in most of the roles that the Nigerian gave Javor, hence my doubts over Javor.
All in all, I’m expecting quite the low-scoring encounter between these two sides. There’s generally not much between them and Spartak actually possess the rather unenviable record of having failed to score against Javor for three consecutive meetings now, drawing twice and losing once. However, today is their best opportunity for some time to correct that record and I think they’ve got the necessary attacking talent to do so today. Javor will still present a united front and will make Spartak work hard here but ultimately, with so many important defensive players having departed, I think that Javor will succumb to defeat against Spartak and thus odds of 4/5 are worthwhile taking today as a result, in my view.
Verdict: Spartak Subotica to win at 4/5.
Additional game:
Universidad Catolica vs Caracas
I can’t really see how the bookies think that Catolica have merited odds of 1/3 here because I certainly don’t agree with that!
Catolica have found their Jose Mourinho in ex-Barcelona striker Juan Antonio Pizza with the talented manager leading Catolica to their first league title in years last time around, hence them being in the Copa Libertadores. Despite that, however, Catolica’s experience on the continent in recent years has been minimal and I therefore don’t feel that the odds of 1/3 are justified at the foundation, let alone in the middle!
Catolica have some very good players, admittedly – ex-Marseille attacker Calandria, ex-Porto midfielder Tomas Costa, and the excellent playmaker Mirosevic, to name a few – but they’re not quite there yet, in my view. Yes, they claimed a fantastic win at Velez Sarsfield last week but let’s face it – that happened because of a Velez Sarsfield red card. Credit to Catolica for taking their chances but the scoreline flattered them, in my view. Let’s go back to March last year when Catolica last featured in the Copa Libertadores and what happened there? They played six games, drew four times, lost once, and won just one game. Ironically, two of those games were against tonight’s opponents from Venezuela – Caracas – so why Catolica are 1/3 to beat them nearly twelve months later when little has changed is beyond me.
Visitors Caracas are starting to emerge from the Venezuelan stereotype of being hard to beat and although their progress is fairly slow, it’s progress nonetheless. Caracas aren’t where they want to be in terms of beating good sides away from home – they’re still some distance from that – but the wealthy Venezuelan giants are certainly a lot harder to beat than they’re portrayed to be. Consider that giving them a +1.5 goal head start in their last ten continental away games gives them a victory and you’ll see exactly what I mean. Caracas did lose 3-0 at Argentinian outfit Velez Sarsfield at the start of the current campaign, it’s true, although I largely attribute that to an early red card for Caracas. As a unit, they’re very hard to shatter and I expect to see them adopt their usual tactics away from home tonight to cause their Chilean hosts no end of problems.
Caracas have travelled to Mexico to face Guadalajara, Argentina to face Atletico Lanus, Brazil to face Gremio, Ecuador to face Deportivo Cuenca, Brazil again to face Flamengo etc. and have only been beaten by a single goal each time, if beaten at all. Colombian striker Cabezas is a potent threat for the Venezuelans and Panamanian playmaker Barahona is no mug either. Caracas beat a good Union Espanola side 2-0 at home last match so they need to be taken seriously here. This is Catolica’s first proper test in front of their own fans in the current campaign and I think pressure might hurt them here, especially after their heroic win in Argentina. For me, I’m not even sure that Catolica will win this game so laying them was an option I considered here. However, there appears to be more value in Caracas winning with a +1.5 goal head start at 4/5 so that’s my call for this game tonight as I expect a very tight encounter with plenty of cards.
Verdict: Caracas to win with a +1.5 goal head start at 4/5.