TFT Issue 41!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Today’s featured game is the Ekstraklasa encounter between Jagiellonia Bialystok and Slask Wroclaw. Jagiellonia have over-achieved so far this season but have earned their current placing of second due to some lethal finishing and immaculate home form whereas opponents Slask Wroclaw have impressed in spells but nothing more than normal.
Jagiellonia have already won all seven Ekstraklasa home games this season and have averaged scoring over two goals per home game whilst conceding an average of just over a goal per every two home games so it’s very easy to see why they’re doing so well. I think it’s fair to observe that Jagiellonia aren’t the same side as earlier this season as one half of their lethal attacking duo – Grosicki – departed for Sivasspor in the Turkish Super Lig where he’s already making a name for himself. Jagiellonia still have old Tomasz Frankowski leading the line, however, and as he’s one of the best target men in the division, I am still confident of a Jagiellonia victory here. They didn’t play particularly well at GKS Belchatow last match but still claimed a 0-0 draw from the game, which is quite good really, considering how poorly they tend to play away from home. They’re back on familiar turf today, however, and given that Wisla Krakow have now passed them in the Ekstraklasa table, this game has very much become a “must win” for Jagiellonia. The only hindrance to their plans to win this game today are the absences of important defender Thiago and attacker Sotirovic, who some say was booked in his last game to avoid being suspended for another potentially more important game as he was ineligible to play in this game due to a clause in his contract that states he cannot face his former club today. I’d rate their absences as being more important if Jagiellonia faced a particularly good side but they’re not so I’ll overlook them here.
Visitors Slask Wroclaw, on the other hand, do have reason to be concerned. They miss two big defensive players for them in Spahic and Wolczek and they don’t have the depth to replace those two players, in my view. They may have only lost three away games from eight in the Ekstraklasa this season but that’s generally been with a full squad at their disposal, something which they don’t have today. They don’t have a good record in Bialystok – who does, barring Jagiellonia?! – and they enter this game on the back of a poor 0-0 draw with Cracovia Krakow. It’s not looking good for Slask Wroclaw and they’re evidently still missing long-term absentee Diaz in attack, who brought them a whole new dimension in front of goal earlier this season so it’s fair to say that I don’t rate their chances here.
Robert Malek was the centre of attention in Jagiellonia’s last match as the referee refused two strong penalty appeals by GKS Belchatow so it’ll be interesting to see how he responds to the claims that he was Jagiellonia’s “twelfth man” in today’s game – hopefully by repeating his actions!
Jagiellonia have become very strong at home over the years and although they’re still adapting to life without Grosicki, I still think they’ll win this game. Frankowski is a good enough striker to score against a weakened Slask Wroclaw side but are Slask good enough to score here without Diaz? I’d be surprised to see it. For me, there’s value in a Jagiellonia win at 5/6.
Team news – Jagiellonia Bialystok miss Thiago Cionek and Sotirovic whereas Slask Wroclaw miss Spahic, Dudek, and Wolczek.
Verdict: Jagiellonia Bialystok to win at 5/6.
Additional game
Debreceni VSC vs Paksi SE
Crazy odds of 1/2 on a Debreceni VSC win here confuse me a lot but what the hell!
Debreceni VSC are still a good side at the core but their innumerate problems over the transfer window (two key players leaving, including their captain, their manager leaving, UEFA’s prolonged investigations into their match-fixing etc.) make these odds look a joke, especially against Paksi SE! Paksi SE aren’t a top side in Hungary but what they consistently prove to be is a side with spirit and that makes them very hard against an uncertain and frankly demoralised Debreceni side. Debreceni have been drubbed away from home against Kecskemeti for their last two consecutive games so the fear of the Hungarian giants is fading, at least for the present. Paksi SE have already won five out of eight in the Soproni Liga away from home this season by working hard and defending well; why should today be any different? Hungarian sides are always additionally motivated against the giants – Debreceni VSC, Ferencvaros, Fehervar, and Ujpest – but Paksi SE will be even moreso here as they’re the only Soproni Liga side to boast a squad entirely composed of Hungarian players. That makes this game very important as Debreceni VSC’s team is littered with foreigners and with all of the above taken into consideration, I think laying Debreceni VSC at 13/10 is a good bet today.
Verdict: Lay Debreceni VSC at 13/10.