TFT Issue 410!
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Toulon Tournament
Netherlands vs Turkey
A couple of shock results on Friday mean that this group is very much an open one despite the fact that it should be closed by now. Both sides competing in this game today have four points apiece but a winner in the other game between Egypt and Japan could mean that either Netherlands or Turkey go out of the tournament. It’d at least be understandable if it was the Turks but imagine the reaction if it was the Dutch – they’d be furious!
I watched Netherlands facing Japan lately and I felt that defeat was a bit harsh on the Dutch. Yes, I can’t condone complacency nor their casual approach to the game but Japanese simply pressurised the Dutch in the middle of the park and used their attacking pace to their advantage by playing the ball in behind the Dutch back four, who seem to have no concept of an offside trap, marking, nor the ability to clear a ball, and taking a positive result from it. Bayern forward Usami is the best player in the Japanese squad by a mile and he was unplayable, although the Japanese were susceptible when it came to attacking as a unit because their composure/decision-making in the final third, often releasing crosses at the wrong time and requiring bad Dutch defending/clearances to capitalise. The Dutch are vulnerable in defence and if Kieftenbeld is the only assistance that they’re going to get then the Dutch will concede a lot more goals in this tournament. In attack, they look lethal, as you’d expect. I want to see more of Barazite although ten Voorde has been excellent. Young Ajax winger Lukoki already looks to be one of the players of the tournament with his dazzling dribbling skills and lightning pace. A bit more awareness and composure would benefit his game massively but they’re two things that the Ajax coaches will know how to give to him. Netherlands will score a lot of goals in this tournament – I just feel that they’ll concede a lot more too.
The Turks leave me a bit cold in the sense that I still don’t know what to expect from them. They were hard-working and efficient against the Japanese but complacent against the Egyptians and you saw the contrast in results. Turkey’s defence is a bit on the naive side but their attack is good, especially on the flanks, where they possess a lot of pace. Technically, Turkey are a good side and they knock the ball about well. I think that they’ll cause the Dutch problems here, especially as you have to consider that the Turks need to avoid defeat here more than Netherlands with Netherlands possessing a stronger goal difference. A draw would see both sides progress but I just don’t think that either side is good enough to play for it, you know? Their defences are both liable to concede at any time.
Therefore, I’m rolling with over 2.5 goals here. Odds aren’t out yet but 4/5 or longer looks great to me. I’d maybe take a slice of the Dutch win if it got to 6/5 but aside from that I’d give it a miss as they have a habit of becoming lazy rather quickly.
Egypt vs Japan
Wth the proviso that the Japanese are much better in the final third than they were against Netherlands, I firmly believe that they’ll get the better of their African opponents today. It might sound strange to say that as Japan bagged three against Netherlands in their last game but the Dutch defence was at fault for all of those goals. If Egypt don’t make any mistakes at the back (unlikely, I admit) then Japan will need to try something else and that’s where I grow concerned. Usami is a terrific asset to their attack and he can do what they need him to. The pace and movement of the Japanese team is good and they like to spread the ball quickly. However, when it comes to delivering the right ball at the right time, I am concerned for them. If they can conquer that then they’ll win this game, no questions asked. Egypt has pace and attacking options themselves but they don’t look as solid as Japan do. Japan have a solid shape whereas Egypt are very much hit-and-miss, especially with one of the more temperamental squads in the Toulon Tournament at their disposal. Egypt will never lie down and be beaten but their heads can drop rapidly and given that I expect the Japanese to bag the first goal here, I think that a Japanese win is worth a flutter here. Odds aren’t out on this selection yet but if you find it at 6/5 then I’m interested. Shorter than that and it loses value, unless you’re watching the game and betting in-play.
Featured game
MyPa Anjalankoski vs JJK Jyvaskyla – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga game between MyPa Anjalankoski and JJK Jyvaskyla.
This is a classic case of the bookies not knowing shit about Finnish football. Irrespective of the actual outcome of this game, there is simply no way on earth that MyPa should be favourites to beat a side that is easily twice as good as they are. It’s just unbelievable! All because of a very good start, too.
I mean, credit to MyPa for their run. In all honesty, I expected them to go down this season, much like I do most seasons, but they seem hell-bent on defying my wishes again. I’ve no idea how they manage to do it, to be honest. MyPa are quite genuinely a bunch of Ykkonen-grade players that work hard and pull rabbits out of the hat on a regular basis. I can’t phrase it any other way than that, I’m afraid. This side will almost always attract goals to them as they’re not good enough to keep a clean sheet but they’ve looked surprisingly good going forward. That said, they’ve kept three clean sheets at home already in the Veikkausliiga this season so it’s easy to see why people are being misled, particularly with HJK being one of MyPa’s victims this season. However, all the sides that MyPa have beaten at home this season have identical characteristics; they all build from the back to forge attacks rather than going gung-ho and that suits MyPa, really. If you attack MyPa properly then they concede goals and would you believe it – in the two games in which that has happened this season, MyPa have lost on both occasions. MyPa will lie down for nobody but don’t expect their excellent run to continue forever.
Now, what you have to understand with JJK is that they’re either outstanding or they’re awful. Their defence can and will concede goals against any side in this division. In fact, if we’re honest, most Ykkonen sides wouldn’t have trouble scoring against them either. However, there are not many sides that can play an open game with JJK because JJK are one of the best attacking sides in the Veikkausliiga. Attack them and JJK will punish you on counter-attacks with their superb midfield and in-form hitman Wusu. JJK won at TPS Turku in their last away game and only Inter Turku have got the better of them on the road this season. It’s worth noting that JJK score at least one goal per away game whilst they actually average scoring two goals per away game. Scoring goals is simply what JJK do best and without the pressure of playing at home on their backs, JJK look a very strong side indeed and I would not be surprised to see them record a “shock” win here.
Bluntly put, the odds are way too long on JJK here so the draw no bet option really does appeal to me. However, remembering quite vividly the 1-5 result at the start of the season that JJK were dealt by Haka Valkeakoski, I’m not going to get involved on the market. A freak result, perhaps, but that’s JJK all over; they love freak results. What appeals to me in this one is goals, though. As long as MyPa keep their form up and take their chances then I expect JJK to do the rest to get this game over 2.5 goals. Frankly, barring games with Jaro, odds of 5/6 on any game involving JJK Jyvaskyla going over 2.5 goals is a steal and today is no exception.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional games
Wales vs Mexico – Mexico to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Welsh players have been dropping like flies for this friendly in the USA with Vaughan, Price, Blake, Eardley, Ledley, and Bale having all pulled out. Wayne Hennessey is still injured and wasn’t in the squad to begin with, which means that we have some very inexperienced options for goalkeepers on show in the Welsh squad. Captain Aaron Ramsey will feature but it’s going to be him and Joe Allen against Mexico, basically, with most others largely unproven at this level. Bellamy up front will be a constant threat and the work-rate of Morrison and Church will help the Welsh as they try to break up the Mexican attacks. This squad looks very short on experience in each position barring the striker role, however, and that does not bode well.
You all know how good Mexico can be when it suits them. Some of their more promising youngsters are at the Toulon Tournament in France so won’t be given a chance here, which is a shame. It’s especially a shame for Wales as that means there’ll be more experienced and proven players up against them today, which isn’t ideal when you consider the squad that they’ve taken to the USA. Javier Hernandez has had a frustrating season with Manchester United, in my view – his finishing is as deadly as ever but his determination to become more than a poacher is not improving his game. Frankly, it’s damaging his game as he keeps trying to beat players, which he simply isn’t good enough to do. That affects his mentality and makes him run offside a lot more often. However, this Welsh defence is particularly inexperienced and thus he could be a real threat here. There’s no Osorio, Juarez, nor Magallon for Mexico but there are replacements for them, especially with the timeless Rafael Marquez and Carlos Salcido to guide the back four. What disappoints me the most is that Carlos Vela hasn’t been called into this squad, incidentally. Now, unless he’s suffering from an injury – which I’ve not heard anything about – then it’s a complete joke because he was outstanding for Real Sociedad this season, particularly in the second-half of the campaign. Quite how Gio dos Santos is ahead of him is beyond me, although it’ll be interesting to see if there are any more tears because Jonathan dos Santos isn’t in the squad this time. Torrado is out, which isn’t ideal, but then again Mexico’s midfield shouldn’t encounter tremendous resistance in this game as it’s an under-strength Wales outfit. I like the balance of this Mexican side, though. There’s plenty of pace and skill and as long as Hernandez bags his chances then this should be a fairly routine win for Mexico.
For me, the -1 Asian Handicap is very appealing at 4/5 today.
Verdict: Mexico to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Sao Paulo vs Bahia – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Oh no! Sao Paulo lost 4-2 at Botafogo! Abandon ship, everyone!
No. Playing in Botafogo should never count toward statistics, at least in my view – anyone can lose in Rio against that unpredictable battling and dangerous side. It doesn’t matter how many players are missing for them; they’re just impossible to beat there for the vast majority of the time.
Realistically speaking, Sao Paulo have a good chance of winning Serie A this season. I still don’t rate them away from home but they’ve got all the quality that is required to win it. Fluminense look stronger than they were, Corinthians look as impotent as ever, and Internacional look to be losing players soon. Santos are too hit-and-miss so Sao Paulo are in the driving seat as far as I’m concerned, although I expect a challenge from Fluminense. I mean, look at who will lead the charge from midfield – former Shakhtar Donetsk playmaker Jadson and hot prospect Lucas Moura! Both of those players are untouchable on their day, especially at this level. Even fat Luis Fabiano can score goals here with those two pulling the strings, which would be highly beneficial as Sao Paulo sold pacey Dagoberto to Internacional pre-season. This Sao Paulo side has a strong defence, a good level of experience, and good ability to control possession. As long as their mentalities are correct and they take their chances, they’ll win more games than most this season.
Visitors Bahia are a side that I love to pieces but they’re hopeless away from Vitora. Sides from Vitoria are notorious in Brazil for being really hard to beat, especially on their own patch. That whole region is full of feisty grafters that love to close down their opponents and score goals for fun. Take them on their travels and they’ll lose most away games, though. Bahia did surprisingly well on the road last season although the fact that they only lost two out of their last six away games due to battling against relegation explanations why the statistics aren’t as condemning as they should be. They lost defender Paulo Miranda pre-season to…yes, you got it – Sao Paulo! Guess who’ll have some inside information to share around prior to this game in the dressing room? They also lost Marcos to Cruzeiro so the Bahia defence isn’t as strong as it was last season, although they’ll be pretty damn happy to have kept hold of former Corinthians playmaker Lulinha, who has been a relevation since moving to Vitoria. Bahia still function well as a unit and aren’t easy to overcome but they’re facing a much better side than they are today. If they fall behind early in the game then this will be a long game for Bahia.
Sao Paulo must approach this game with the correct mentality to win it, though. Bahia will exploit any weakness that they show and if Sao Paulo don’t match that tenacity then this game has 0-0 or 1-1 all over it. However, I like the potency that Sao Paulo have shown and I think that they’re more than good enough to win this one comfortably. With that in mind, I can’t help but feel that taking Sao Paulo to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5 is well worth a bet today.
Verdict: Sao Paulo to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
PK-35 Helsinki vs Jippo Joensuu – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Ah, there’s such a gulf between these two sides that it’s hardly worth going into. PK-35 are an attractive attacking side that score goals for fun. PK-35 have played all of the good sides in the Ykkonen in their first five games this season and have won three of them so kudos to today’s hosts. On their beloved artificial turf, PK-35 are arguably one of the hardest sides in the Ykkonen to take on and will usually win their games as a result. Despite a lot of players still being new to PK-35, they’ve galvanised well and played some good football thus far – let’s hope that they can keep it up and finally get the promotion that they’ve been pushing for since The Last Supper. They’ve got more than enough firepower to win a game against any side in this division and their defence has looked strangely solid too, which has sold me, basically. PK-35 look one of the more complete sides in the Ykkonen right now with only RoPS Rovaniemi and possibly SJK ahead of them so I’m happy to take them here.
All you need to understand about Jippo Joensuu is that they’re a “stopper” club. Their only approach in a game of football is to stop their opponents from scoring and hope to hell that they scavenge a goal from a set piece or bad defending. They don’t have another approach. Frankly, it’s a miracle that they’re still playing in the Ykkonen and perhaps that stay won’t be extended beyond this season if their current traits continue. In Joensuu, this side will almost never lose because the pitch is awful and compact, which suits Jippo just fine. They pack men behind the ball, pressurise past the half-way line, and get physical whenever the opportunity arises. Nobody likes games in Joensuu and if your side gets a draw there then that’s a good result in my eyes. Away from home, though, Jippo are sitting ducks. There are some sides in the Ykkonen that they can keep out and there are some that they can’t. They’ll try to do that today but PK-35 are much too good for them.
PK-35 have beaten Jippo at home in five out of their last six attempts, beating the -1 Asian Handicap on three occasions. Jippo have managed to score against PK-35 just once in their last six attempts at either ground and subsequently tend to end up losing against their more illustrious opponents. This bet almost looks too good to be true, which is concerning in a superstitious kind of way. However, realistically speaking, there’s terrific value in taking PK-35 to beat the -1 Asian Handicap here. 1-0 is a possibility – money back if so – but if PK-35 score early enough then we could see a very heavy scoreline today. I like the idea of taking PK-35 to win to nil but my favourite bet is to take them to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Verdict: PK-35 Helsinki to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Team news
Please post your own today, guys! Cheers!