TFT Issue 411!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Toulon Tournament
Belarus vs Mexico
My fears have become reality with Belarus still yet to score a goal from open play in this tournament and they’ve not deserved to, either. Worse than that is the fact that their defence has looked a lot more shaky than normal in their previous two games with even Morocco causing a few upsets in their defence. If Belarus lose their defence than they really are in a bad place because their attack just isn’t good enough to win games like this. Belarus may well take advantage of Mexico’s lax defending but there’s no way on earth that they’ll match them for goals. If Belarus defend as nervously here as they have done in their previous two games whilst entertaining a very talented Mexico attack, I think they’re going to find themselves on the end of a heavy defeat. Mexico at 4/5 or longer is a must here and over 2.5 goals at similar odds would be welcome. To be honest, getting Mexico -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5 or something in that region is well worth a flutter too.
France vs Morocco
France have simply looked like champions in their two games prior to this one. They attack really convincingly with a maturity that should be beyond their years. The AS Monaco boys in the team have really impressed me and will be a key part of the U23 side if they are going to win their tournament. I’m not sure if we’ll see a mixed bag for France today, given that they’ve already secured progression to the latter stages. For that reason, I wouldn’t handicap them unless using the Asian Handicap and if that then only -1. They’re definitely good enough to beat it against a determined but defensively-inept Morocco side. Morocco played out a 0-0 draw with Belarus a couple of days ago and neither side really did enough to win the game. Morocco’s defence can concede at any time and their attack won’t score without assistance. That makes me very interested in taking France here with the proviso that whatever squad they choose, they show the necessary unity and motivation to win the game. If they do that, they’ll easily clear the -1 Asian Handicap. Odds aren’t out yet so I’m struggling to pinpoint value in this one but I’d settle for -1 if it’s at evens or longer.
Featured game
HB Torshavn vs KI Klaksvik – home win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Meistaradeildin game between heavyweights HB Torshavn and in-form KI Klaksvik.
As much as their fans would want it to be the case, I cannot envision HB Torshavn participating in the Meistaradeildin title race this season. They’ve got too many core problems that they haven’t resolved and cannot resolve in a short space of time. For example, their lack of composure is costing the side points, namely in defence and from the penalty spot. HB Torshavn have an awful penalty conversion rate this season because this side lacks the confidence that it once had. Throw tiredness into the mix with a somewhat ineffectual defence and HB Torshavn really struggle to deal with sides that fearlessly attack them, hence them shipping vast amount of goals. This isn’t to suggest that HB aren’t a good side because they are, especially in attack. Attack was their weakest area last season but a return to the Faroe Islands for former Manchester City youngster Mouritsen has done wonders for the HB attack. He’s even making old av Flotum look mobile, which is amusing. The emergence of young Hanssen in midfield has lessened the burden on captain Benjaminsen, which helps as he’s no spring chicken nowadays. The pace of Samuelsen is a constant threat and all of the above combined means that even Poulsen is being kept out of the team at the moment. The acquisition of Alex at left-back for HB has increased their attacking options somewhat but really hasn’t helped their defence. I would imagine they knew that beforehand, though – he’s got a reputation in the Faroe Islands for being a lunatic with a wonderful long-range shot. That doesn’t sound like any Brazilian players that I know of(!). HB are a good attacking side, though – one of the best in the Faroe Islands. They enter this game on the back of a 5-2 demolition of bitter rivals EB/Streymur in the Longmanssteypid, although agonisingly went out on away goals. Still, they can and will take heart from the win and should be ready to do the business today.
Visitors KI Klaksvik are in outstanding form and nobody really knows why. I mean, Icelandic boss Gudlaugsson was instrumental in masterminding the Faroe Islands’ infamous victory over Austria in 1990 but he’d have to emulate those heroics with KI Klaksvik for them to actually have a legitimate shot at the title. They’re in outstanding form and the players clearly believe in themselves right now but they’ll do well to get anything from Torshavn today. I mean, the two times this season that they’ve lost have come against two superior sides in the division, namely B36 Torshavn and IF Fuglafjordur. They drew at EB/Streymur earlier this season, which is a claim to fame for them, although it’s worth noting that the current boss of KI Klaksvik knows the EB/Streymur side inside out. HB Torshavn are a difficult team to deal with, though, and Gudlaugsson knows it. KI have a superb defensive record on the road but their goalscoring record on the road is not at all good. The pace of Elttor on the counter-attack is always going to be a threat, especially with his experience to boot. I don’t see much else on their side today, though, barring HB’s awful defending, which I don’t forsee KI being good enough to take advantage of. KI have momentum following four consecutive wins but who have they actually beaten? Rock-bottom Suduroy, who sacked their manager after that defeat? Hit-and-miss relegation candidates B68 Toftir? Unconvincing NSI Runavik? The only credible one is league leaders Vikingur Gotu but Vikingur Gotu weren’t even at home for that game – they were playing in Fuglafjordur – so read into that what you will. We all love a good fairytale in football and credit to KI for their wins and belief but I think this is a bridge too far for them today.
I’m amazed that you can get 9/10 on the superior side winning this game. HB’s defence is bad enough to concede here but they should be more than capable of scoring a few too. For me, the home win is a steal today.
Verdict: HB Torshavn to win at 9/10.