TFT Issue 413!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Toulon Tournament
Netherlands vs Mexico
There’s a few things that make me fancy the Dutch to win this one today. Yeah, they’ve been a bit complacent in the tournament thus far but you can see the devastation that they unleash when they attack properly. Defensively, they’re susceptible, but they’re lethal in attack. Young Lukoki looks superb on the right-hand side and quite how an utterly inept Mexican defence will deal with him here I don’t know. I really thought that we were in for a better Mexican defence than this with all the experience that they have but they decided not to bother this time around, conceding stupid goals in all of their games thus far.
Mexico are lucky that star striker Fabian didn’t suffer a leg break following that absolutely disgusting challenge by Kuzmenok on him. He came back on, though, and demonstrated his ability yet again by scoring the winner of the game. Without him, they lack composure in front of goal so he’s very much essential to the process.
Where Mexico become unlucky is when you consider that the pitches are in bad condition and that their passing game doesn’t work as well on them as a result. Then you need to consider that Mexico have had a day less to prepare for this game whilst the Dutch have been able to regain some fitness. This tournament is no chicken feed, guys – you play every two days and all the players are under 23; you do the mathematics. It’s no coincidence that so many players were sent off on the final day of each group stage; there were a lot of tired players. That will still be the case today but that’s an advantage that the Dutch have here that the Mexicans don’t with their additional day’s rest.
There’s not much between them, quality-wise. The majority of the Dutch players play at a higher level than the Mexicans but both excel in attack and struggle in defence. I think fitness will be key here and the Dutch are very good at exploiting their opponents when they feel like it so taking The Netherlands to win at 5/4 looks excellent to me today.
France vs Turkey
I struggle to find value in this one, guys. It looks too obvious to take France to beat the handicap here, despite them being more than capable of doing so. Turkey tend to show up in the big games, though, and France proved last time out that they are human after all, despite resting a few players. Turkey have had longer to prepare for this game than France too, let’s not forget. France can outclass and annihlate Turkey here if they play the perfect game but what are the chances of that? I expect a much closer 2-1 or 1-0 scoreline, to be honest. Unless Turkey collapse, which they are capable of from time to time, then this should be a closer game than anticipated. I wouldn’t take the French to win this game at less than 4/5 so 8/11 doesn’t interest me at all. It may be worth taking the French in-play but aside from that, I have no interest in betting here other than a cheeky stab at both sides to score with very low stakes!
Featured game
Netherlands vs Slovakia – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the International Friendly in Rotterdam between Netherlands and Slovakia.
So, the Dutch lost 1-2 against Bulgaria in their last game, which irked everyone. Will it happen again? I doubt it. Seriously, how many times will the Dutch make a mess of things at home twice in a row? The last game may not have been important but van Marwijk’s repsonse to the Dutch defeat indicates that today’s games is very much important and he’s right, too. This side needs to take momentum into the tournament and that involves them playing well here and scoring goals. Netherlands may not have deserved to lose the game against Bulgaria but I’d argue that they barely deserved to win it themselves due to Bulgaria’s solid defending.and relentless tenacity.
This game, though – they simply have to deliver and they’ve definitely got the firepower to do so. Happily, Slovakia have decided to aid our bet massively today by not calling up Skrtel, Zabavnik, and Durica. All three are an integral part of Slovakia’s best area – defence – and they cannot be replaced in a big game like this. There’s still plenty of quality in midfield with Stoch, Hamsik, and Weiss happy to counter-attack at will. However, with star striker Vittek out of the squad too, it’s really hard for me to envision Slovakia fighting back into this game if they fall behind, which they’re likely to do.
I expect a heavy home win here, guys. As long as Netherlands show up, this should be a 3-0 or 4-0 scoreline, although I can’t ever realistically rule out someone scoring against the Dutch because they’re haphazard at the back at the best of times. Either way, taking the hosts to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5 looks very appealing.
Verdict: Netherlands to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Additional games
Switzerland vs Romania – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
The Swiss side captured the attention of media across the world with their 5-3 battering of rivals Germany. They played well enough to earn it, too, although that game was far more notable for the bad defending rather than the talented attacking. The Swiss love being underdogs and boss Hitzfeld was always going to be motivated to get one over on Germany, which he did, to his credit.
Today’s games is very different for them, though. The Swiss are favourites here and that’s not really ideal for them. They’ve got some lethal counter-attacking weapons but when it comes to breaking sides down, they’re not as good as they’d like to be. I rate the Swiss as an emerging side but there’s still a lot for them to learn and winning as favourites against a good side like Romania is not as easy as it seems. I fancy the hosts to score here but I wouldn’t be surprised if they conceded, too. Romania are resting a few players for this game but with Piturca at the helm, the players actually want to play for their national team nowadays. Romania have named a determined and mobile side to play in this game and I think that they could cause their hosts problems today.
Rather than enter the dubious 1×2 market with an over-confident Switzerland and an underrated Romania, I’d much rather take over 2.5 goals here as both sides are determined and capable in front of goal. I especially like this as the Swiss were awful at the back against Germany with Benaglio in goal making too many errors and his defence not being good with their positioning nor their reactions.
One final point – a lot of the Romanian squad played in the packed fixture scheduled at the end of the Romanian Liga 1 campaign so will carry tired legs here. It may not show at first but as the game wears on, it may be worthwhile to back the Swiss to score goals.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Sweden vs Iceland – away win with +1.5 handicap at evens.
Sweden are 1/5 to beat Iceland? Have I missed something here? Sweden have more familiar household names, it’s true, but Iceland’s development over the last couple of years has been good. They were impressive at France in their last game, unluckily losing 3-2 despite taking a 0-2 lead. They’re comfortable on the ball, dangerous in front of goal, and full of energy. Sweden themselves have plenty of quality but never seem to deliver against the lesser sides. Maybe it’s just me but Sweden just aren’t good enough to be at 1/5 to beat a good side, in my view.
Therefore, I give Iceland the +1.5 handicap at evens in a hope that we’ll see another inspired display from them against rivals Sweden.
Verdict: Iceland to win with +1.5 handicap at evens.
Inter Turku vs FC Lahti – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
This one would have been the main one today if the Dutch weren’t playing. You don’t need me to tell you that Inter Turku are better than FC Lahti because they simply are. Even the Veikkausliiga table indicates that! They’re not only better than Lahti in every position but have a better manager and better cohesion too. Add all those together and you already have a solid foundation for the -1.5 handicap, especially with the firepower that Dragtsma’s side has. Now add to the mix that Lahti are missing leading goalscorer Kari and his strike partner Shala too. Rafael is available but he needs an accomplice and with Kemppinen still out, you struggle to find where Lahti’s goals will come from. Lahti cause problems by scoring goals because their defence is shocking. If they don’t score goals here then they’re going to get beat – heavily. Taulo is a good player but he’s the only one in their squad that is! They’re trying to secure German set piece specialist Bernhardt for the remainder of the season but his work permit hasn’t cleared yet. He was good with VPS Vaasa, though – I think he’d be a good signing for Lahti. Still, he can’t play today so Lahti are caught between a rock and a hard place.
This is Lahti’s fourth game in nine days. This is Inter Turku’s third in nine days. Inter have a bigger and better squad. Lahti haven’t scored in two games and that doesn’t look likely to change today with all their absentees. Add all of the above up and the -1.5 handicap appeals to me massively at 4/5. If Inter Turku turn it on, they could beat even heavier handicaps here.
Verdict: Inter Turku to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
AC Oulu vs KooTeePee Kotka – AC Oulu to score over 1.5 goals at 4/5.
There’s not as much between these two sides as there was last season but KooTeePee’s form of late has been dire and AC Oulu are playing well. Indeed, AC Oulu have made a very important signing recently with former Jaro hitman Zeze joining on a free transfer. He’s way, way too good for the Ykkonen. The only reason he got kicked out of Pietarsaari was because of his temperament. If he plays his game then he’ll score shitloads of goals and AC Oulu may well be promoted. Stafsula is a decent forward and the two together with a good, solid squad behind them will make a very good AC Oulu side emerge. KooTeePee’s strength is in defence but they’re conceding goals too easily and aren’t scoring goals right now. They have the advantage of the compact pitch at Kotka in their home games but that’s not an advantage here. KooTeePee have looked shattered in the last few weeks, which is bizarre, and now the long trip north to Oulu is far from welcome. The hosts should win this one with relative ease with the above in mind but I don’t like the odds on the outcome. However, I do find value in taking AC Oulu to score over 1.5 goals at 4/5 as they look far better in front of goal and they now possess what is by far the best striker in the division, for my money.
Verdict: AC Oulu to score over 1.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
International Friendlies:
Sweden – Elmander and Martin Olsson are absent. Isaksson returns. Starting eleven – Isaksson, Granqvist, Mellberg, J.Olsson, Safari, R.Elm, Kallstrom, S.Larsson, Toivonen, Ibrahimovic, Rosenberg.
Romania – Matei, Pleasca, Grecu, St.Radu, Nicolita, Pintilii, M.Niculae, Mutu, Marica, and Mazilu are absent.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku – Diallo and Parviainen are absent. Kauko returns.
FC Lahti – Kari, Shala, Kemppinen, and Makitalo are absent. Hukka, Mero, Hauhia, Hietanen, and Sinisalo are doubts.
Finnish Ykkonen:
AC Oulu – Merilainen is a doubt.
KooTeePee Kotka – Yammeh and Lomidze are absent.
HiFK Helsinki – Ranta, Britschgi, Suikki, and Pyhala are absent. Tanner and Priha are doubts.
PK-35 Helsinki – Kabashi, Nyberg, Sorja, and Ikegwuonu are absent.
SJK – Penninkangas, Toni Lehtinen, and Tiitus Lehtinen are absent. Hosio, Lahitie, and Cleaver are doubts. Caumo returns. Montero has left. Phelan may debutise.
OPS Oulu – Prebiracevic and Hyde are absent.
Viikingit Helsinki – No news.
Hameenlinna – Lehtimaki and Koroma are absent. Kalervo is a doubt. Makela, Suhonen, and Tuomenoja return. Szerovay may debutise. Latosaari has left.