TFT Issue 415!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Toulon Tournament
This wonderful little tournament ends today, unfortunately, but let’s hope things go as they should to compensate for some rather bizarre semi-finals!
Mexico vs Turkey
I just can’t overlook Mexico winning this game (and thus the tournament) at 6/5. I thought they’d be too tired to take on the Dutch last time out but they looked strong and capitalised on the Dutch producing yet another complacent display. Mexico simply cannot defend and that does jeopardise this selection, of course. However, as far as goalscoring goes, they look very strong indeed. I tipped Fabian to be one of the players of the tournament before it started and so it’s proven to be with the Guadalajara hitman having delivered some astounding goals with great composure. He’ll be a big threat to the Turks today, as ever. Turkey themselves are very much hit-and-miss. It’s so much like them to drop potentially key points against Egypt and then beat hosts France without even conceding! It’s all about mentality with the Turks – they’re either motivated or they’re not. When they are, they’re a good side with enough pace down the flanks to trouble Mexico. When they’re not motivated, they’re too easy to score against, which could be fatal here. Turkey should be motivated as it’s a final but Mexico aren’t the big opponent that Turkey wish they were, in my view. Turkey would fare well against the Dutch here, for example, but I’m not so sure Mexico will motivate them. I’m open to being proven wrong but I fancy the Mexicans to want this more, score more goals, and thus win the game at 6/5.
France vs Netherlands
I thought these two would be in the final this time around but it proved not to be. France have been arguably the best performers in this tournament thus far wheras the Dutch have been frustratingly capable but complacent. The French are a more complete unit but occasionally lack that bit of experience that the Dutch side does have. The 1×2 market is a “no go” zone here with that in mind but I do like the look of over 2.5 goals at 9/10 between two strong attacking sides.
Featured game
Estonia vs Finland – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Baltic Cup game between hosts Estonia and rivals Finland.
This opening game is the biggest game in this mini-tournament, in my view. Hosts Estonia and rivals Finland have both brought a large portion of their regular squad to this tournament whereas Latvia and Lithuania haven’t. Finland are only missing a few players, such as Roman Eremenko, Mika Ojala, Niklas Moisander, and Riku Riski. Aside from that, we have Finland’s regular squad in Estonia for this tournament, which tells you how seriously that they’re taking it. Estonia themselves only miss Zenjov and Lindpere through injury whilst it’s unlikely that Prosa will play after his involvement for Estonia U21 yesterday. They still have veteran hitman Oper, the clinical Saag, and attacking duo Vassiljev and Dmitrijev to call upon, not to mention tricky winger Kink. There are lots of good attacking players in both sides today and I think we’ve seen both sides demonstrate that in their respective games of late, irrespective of the full-time scores. Both sides look to be taking this very seriously and thus I think we’re in for an interesting game here.
I was tempted to take the Finland win but it’s a shade short at 11/10 against a good Estonia. I think this game will decide the tournament ultimately, however, and that makes it a bit more important than the average opening game. I think we’ll see plenty of goals between these two rivals, hence my call of over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
Czech Republic vs Hungary – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Although the Hungarians are a bit lightweight without the timeless Gera in there, I still don’t understand why the Czechs are so short here. It can’t be on more than name alone, surely? They’ve named an awful lot of players in their squad for the Euros that are basically players that failed to cut the mustard where the likes of Rosicky, Plasil, Hubschman, and Cech succeeded. This side will work hard but there’s too many average players in their side with a mere sprinkling of promising youngsters and little else. They weren’t impressive against Israel in their most recent game and they’ve not really impressed me for a year or two now, in all honesty. I feel that this side is living far more on the name that they created in the 90’s than they side that they actually are.
Hungary are a bit hit-and-miss themselves, which is the dangerous part to this bet. If they play well then they’re more than capable of beating the Czechs here, in my view. They’ve got some dangerous players in the likes of Dzsudzsak and even Mainz 05 hitman Szalai but both players need to be at their best to win here and I’m not so sure we’ll see that. The Hungarian defence can be susceptible but so long as Juhasz starts then it will at least have some organisation. Importantly, a lot of this Hungarian squad are hard workers and they should give the Czechs a good game here with the appropriate motivation.
As long as Hungary show up, I don’t see them losing this game. The Czechs have more recognised players but don’t play better football right now. I think there’s value in giving the Magyars a +1 Asian Handicap at evens here because even if they do lose then it shouldn’t be a heavy scoreline barring utter capitulation because the Czechs aren’t good enough to dish it out nowadays, especially with chief playmaker Rosicky absent today.
Verdict: Hungary to win with +1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Moldova U21 vs Poland U21 – away win at 4/5.
I just think there’s a big gulf in class here. Poland usually bring a good U21 side to the table and the current crop looks capable of doing just that. They were surprisingly beaten 0-1 in Wronki by Moldova because of a goal from Andronic against the run of play with Poland failing to capitalise on the gluttony of chances that they created. I think Poland are more than good enough to turn that scoreline around today against a side that they’re frankly better than. Moldovan football has stagnated in recent times, most probably due to the money that Sheriff Tiraspol is pouring into their league to bring in foreigners. Their U21 team’s development has struggled as a result and I think we’ll see another case of that today. Approach with caution as the U21 sides lack composure at this level and that can cost them in games that they should win but I still really fancy Poland U21 to beat Moldova U21 at 4/5 here.
Verdict: Poland U21 to win at 4/5.
Czech Republic U21 vs Montenegro U21 – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
The Czechs really should have the upper hand against the Montenegrins today. Their current crop isn’t as good as the ones that we saw in June 2011 but they’re good enough to win today as long as they take their chances. They’re one of the more solid U21 sides defensively but they do need to convert their chances or face embarrassing results like their 1-1 scoreline with Armenia U21. Montenegro should help out here, though – they’re horrible when it comes to counter-attacking on the road. They’re hard to face out in the Balkan region but on the road they’re easy to deal with. Score a goal against them and you’ve a strong chance of beating them. That’s what I expect the Czechs to do here, to be blunt. Take the Asian Handicap rather than the European Handicap as it may take the Czechs a while to break through but I still like the -1 at 4/5.
Verdict: Czech Republic U21 to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Faroe Islands U21 vs Republic of Macedonia U21 – home win with +1.5 handicap at evens.
Macedonia are 1/4 to win in the Faroe Islands? Really? Ridiculous odds.
Macedonia do have a better side than the Faroese do, I must confess. However, those odds are a complete trap nowadays. Faroe Islands is never an easy place to go as the away side, I assure you. The pitches there are all hard plastic and the strong winds encircling the islands tend to mean that anything can happen in the games, especially in the Meistaradeildin. Aside from that, the Faroese are making dramatic improvements nowadays both at this level and in their first-team .They’re no longer a side that will simply lie down and get battered. Only an inspired Latvian side has won here in the last five home games of the Faroese in qualifiers with Russia being amongst the sides to lose here. This is most certainly not an easy game and the Macedonians saw that with their difficult 1-0 win at home in the reversal of this fixture. I don’t think that they’d ever admit it but I reckon they’d take a draw here. This is a horrible place to go and play football and I think the result will reflect that today. The Faroese have drafted in the likes of Edmundsson from Viking Stavanger, Petersen from Vejle, Joensen from Brondby, and Olsen from NSI Runavik. There are some good and experienced players in there and even if the Macedonians do manage to win here with their marginally better side, I don’t see it breaking the handicap. For me, there’s a lot of value to be had in giving the Faroese side a +1.5 handicap at evens today.
Verdict: Faroe Islands to win with +1.5 handicap at evens.