TFT Issue 417!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
OPS Oulu vs PK-35 Helsinki – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the intriguing Ykkonen encounter between OPS Oulu and PK-35 Helsinki.
OPS Oulu made a bit of history last match by ending SJK’s 45-game unbeaten run in Finland, winning 0-2 in Seinajoki. That’s what you get with OPS Oulu, though – a side good enough to beat any other in the Ykkonen with the proviso that their first-team plays. Take away anyone from their first-team and they do not have a good replacement, however. As far as depth goes, OPS Oulu are one of the weaker sides in the Ykkonen and thus their form will fluctutate, especially as the season goes on. Nganbe Nganbe is unquestionably the star of the team and he’s a doubt today. That said, Mexican midfielder Ramirez is having a very good season and the likes of Viric and Kainu provide the necessary experience required to keep the squad in check. I like OPS’ refreshing approach to Ykkonen football with their attacking prowess. They’ve not got enough depth to be promoted at the moment but they’re certainly good enough to ruffle a few feathers, which is precisely what I expect them to do today.
PK-35 Helsinki are arguably a better side than OPS Oulu. They’re a more established side with more money to throw around than their hosts. Their new signings have galvanised unbelievably well too, not to mention in rapid time. They had the wind taken out of their sails with a 0-0 draw at local rivals HiFK Helsinki in their last game, though, so they shouldn’t be as pleased with themselves here as they have been in their previous games. They still have a lot of quality in their ranks with Arinze, Oravainen, Xhaferi, not to mention playmaker Weckstrom and forward Santala, the former of which has a lot of Veikkausliiga experience. Make no mistake – PK-35 Helsinki will be in the running for that long-awaited promotion this season. However, I’m not sure if we’ll see that from them in this game. It’s an awfully long way north to go when journeying from Helsinki to Oulu. It’s not an easy trip, either – better sides than PK-35 have crumbled on such a long trip before now. I recall one instance a few years ago when RoPS Rovaniemi hosted HJK Helsinki and HJK were a lot better than RoPS at the time. However, HJK had played a game a few days before and were shattered from it and subsequently lost at an inferior RoPS Rovaniemi. I’m not saying that PK-35 will lose this game but I do think there’s a chance that they will, especially with OPS loving to upset the odds.
However, what we are usually guaranteed from these two sides is goals. Both are attacking sides and both have plenty of firepower. I would edge toward the 1X side if forced into it but I find far more value in taking over 2.5 goals at 10/11 today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Additional games
Canada vs USA – away win at 10/11.
I don’t care if it is a 100-year celebration for Canada or not – USA are simply a better side. They’ve looked good under Klinsmann too! Canada have lots of experience in their squad, to be fair to them, not to mention some good players and a lot of hard workers. Atiba Hutchinson is a stand-out player for me; a proper box-to-box midfielder, which you don’t see many of nowadays. Hume is very strong and Jackson is quick so yeah, there is enough here for Canada to upset the USA today. However, for me, there’s far more options for USA to break through Canada than vice versa. Look who Klinsmann has at his disposal in attack, for example – Altidore, Donovan, and Dempsey, all of which are very capable attacking players. There’s bags of tenacity and physical presence in Jones and Bradley and if you want to talk about experience then let’s look at Bocanegra, Onyewu, Cherundolo, Howard – the list goes on. USA have been strong lately, in my view, and they’ve scored goals rather easily. I think Canada will give them a tough time in this derby but USA winning this game appeals to me a lot at 10/11.
Verdict: USA to win at 10/11.
Brazil vs Mexico – over 3 goals at 11/10.
I think this one speaks for itself, really. We have two notoriously flambuoyant football nations on show here in USA today and they’ve not got anything to lose, either. Mexico haven’t been great lately but they’ve still recorded positive results by being incisive in front of goal, no matter how fortuitous the circumstances are that put them there in the first place, as was the case with Hernandez’s goal against Bosnia-Herzegovina. Still, Mexico have plenty of attacking talent and they love to showcase it against the big names in South America for reasons beknown only to themselves. Goalscoring is in their blood; it’s what they do best. They can’t defend but with an attack like theirs, you don’t often need to.
Brazil are in a very similar mindframe. I’d probably avoid this bet if Brazil had brought their first-team because they actually have quite a solid defence nowadays, which sounds so bizarre that I feel like the roof may cave in on me at any stage! However, Brazil’s “second string” are very good, however. Most of them are more than capable of being starters for most countries, in all honesty. Their 3-1 win at Denmark flattered them as Denmark contributed heavily due to bad defending but their emphatic rout at USA was all of their own making. Brazil’s kids are eager to prove themselves and with Neymar, Hulk, and Pato in the squad, who would bet against them? I wouldn’t. Their defence has been breached in both of their previous two friendlies, however, and that makes me think that Mexico will do the same here. Denmark’s goal may have been miles offside but they did earn in the game to earn the goal that they got and Mexico have enough firepower to punish Brazil’s lack of experience at the back.
If I had to pick a winner then I’d side with Brazil as they’re frighteningly good when they want to be. However, Mexico tend to really pick themselves up for the latino derbies so I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market. Instead, taking over 3 goals looks well worth a punt at 11/10 today, in my view.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 11/10.
SJK vs RoPS Rovaniemi – away win with draw no bet at evens.
Ah, I do love criminally incorrect odds being dished out and that’s certainly what we have here. I’m impressed with the calibre of player that SJK’s money has bought them and I do feel they’ll be in the title race. Hell, the way they’ve played lately has demonstrated that they will be in the title race; no questions asked. I’d love to know why they’re favourites against RoPS Rovaniemi, though, who are simply a better side than they are. RoPS can keep any side in the Ykkonen out and they can score against any of them too, which makes them a very dangerous side. I respect SJK for the way they’ve played so far and the results they’ve recorded against good sides, such as their 2-1 win against PK-35 Helsinki and their 0-1 win at KooTeePee Kotka, for example. However, RoPS are arguably the hardest side in the division to face right now and a 0-2 defeat against OPS Oulu is not the way that SJK should be preparing for it. The absence of hitman Toni Lehtinen today is a problem for them. They have other good attacking players but he’s their main finsher and they don’t have a like-for-like replacement. SJK won’t make this easy for RoPS but without their best striker and with their pride somewhat wounded, I think that they’ll struggle today.
RoPS have just been outstanding this season. When you consider the amount of players that they’ve lost and had to replace pre-season, they’ve done amazingly well. The only side to stop them winning was PK-35 Helsinki on their artificial pitch in a 0-0 draw. Everyone else has succumbed to the will of RoPS Rovaniemi, which is even more impressive when you consider that they’ve faced AC Oulu in their derby match, OPS Oulu in another derby game, and smashed three goals past a very good defensive unit in KooTeePee Kotka. Ask RoPS a question and they deliver a convincing answer, in my view. Rivera is one of the top players in the Ykkonen right now and with Mbachu and Lahtinen alongside him, RoPS look too hot to handle at times. I still feel that they need a bit more at the back but as a unit, this is a very good squad indeed, better than SJK too, for my money.
I expect a tight game here between two promotion rivals. SJK want to make an impression here against a proven and established RoPS Rovaniemi side whereas the visitors would most likely accept a draw and carry on beating everyone else. However, SJK are reeling following their defeat and RoPS have more than enough pace and quality to punish them and I have to consider taking RoPS with draw no bet odds of evens as a good value bet against any side on the Ykkonen, frankly.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to win with draw no bet at evens.
Hameenlinna vs AC Oulu – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Pre-season, I had pretty much written AC Oulu off from this year’s title race in the Ykkonen. They’ve got the quality and they’ll be there or thereabouts but firepower was a big problem for them that they just didn’t have an answer to. There’s only so many times that Stafsula can bail them out, after all. However, they recently acquired the outlaw Zeze and although it’s a gamble, it’s certainly a very good signing from a quality perspective. I suppose you could loosely view him as the Balotelli of the Ykkonen, really – his temperament is a huge problem but as far as quality goes, he’s good enough to be the best in the league. It’s no coincidence that AC Oulu have bagged nine goals in the two games that he’s played because his arrival not only gives AC Oulu that bit more quality in attack but it also takes attention away from Stafsula and allows a lot more off-the-ball movement to cause problems for their opponents. There’s no way Hameenlinna are going to be able to handle AC Oulu’s attack here, in my view, not based on what we’ve seen from them so far this season. Hameenlinna look bereft of confidence and currently average shipping over three goals per game and given that they’ve bagged just two goals in seven games, it’s very hard for me to give them the same respect that I did last season. Hameenlinna have signed Nwoke, who may debutise here – he was a proven striker in Finland some years ago and he will certainly improve Hameenlinna’s league placing if nothing else. I think it’s a bit of a tall order to ask him to do the business against a top quality side like AC Oulu, however, and you really don’t know how fit he is right now. That’s the only light at the end of the tunnel for Hameenlinna right now, though!
This should be a very long and ultimately disappointing game for the hosts. They hate playing under pressure, hence their away displays generally being much more impressive than their home displays. They can’t keep clean sheets and they’re not doing enough in front of goal. With AC Oulu’s attack looking better than it has for years, the -1 Asian Handicap looks very appealing at evens.
Verdict: AC Oulu to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Estonia vs Lithuania – home win at 8/5.
Lithuania are the only side that brought their “B” team to the Baltic Cup and now that they’re facing hosts Estonia, things shouldn’t improve for them. Latvia rested a few attacking regulars for this tournament but still battered Lithuania 5-0. Imagine what a virtually full-strength Estonia side will do! Estonia are a very good side and as long as they play a good starting eleven here then they’ll cruise to victory. I fancy the outright win immensely at 8/5 and even the -1 Asian Handicap looks a fun bet here!
Verdict: Estonia to win at 8/5.
Finland vs Latvia – Finland to win at 7/5.
This is another one that interests me a lot. This is the final of the Baltic Cup and as Finland have brought their first-team to this tournament, that makes them the strongest side in it, in my view. Despite playing with ten men for half of the game against Estonia a few days ago, the two goals from Kuqi were enough to see Finland reach the final. Latvia had an easier game, destroying Lithuania’s “B” team 5-0, but they too have brought a reasonably strong squad. However, unlike Finland, Latvia have left quite a few players out, players that they are likely to miss here. You won’t find Hamburger SV-bound Rudnevs, for example, nor the experienced Rubins in midifeld. Veteran striker Verpakovskis and battle-axe Zigajevs are both out too, not to mention captain Gorkss, Ivanovs, and Kacanovs from their defence. Visnakovs, Cauna, Pereplotkins, Klava, and Gauracs are all decent players in their own right but the majority of players in this Latvian squad are not good enough to be here. Finland should be more than good enough to win this game with some ease, in my view, even without the suspended Ring in midfield. Taking Finland to win this one at 7/5 is a bargain, in my eyes!
Verdict: Finland to win at 7/5.
Team news
Finnish Ykkonen:
Viikingit Helsinki – Gonzales and Peteri are doubts.
HiFK Helsinki – Pyhala, Suikki, Ranta, Britschgi, and Mikko Halme are absent.
OPS Oulu – Hyde and Prebiracevic are absent. Nganbe Nganbe is a doubt.
PK-35 Helsinki – Sorja, Nyberg, Kabashi, and Ikegwuonu are absent.
SJK – Toni Lehtinen is absent. Penninkangas, Lahitie, and Cleaver are doubts. Tilitus Lehtinen returns.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Grohn and Turcios are absent. Emenike and Kokko are doubts.
Hameenlinna – Koroma and Lehtimaki are absent. Suhonen and Mononen are doubts. Nwoke may debutise.
AC Oulu – Merilainen is a doubt.