TFT Issue 420!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Keep your stakes reasonable rather than heavy today. I like both games but you know luck is against you when Estonia U21 vs Georgia U21 goes over 2.5 goals!
Featured game
Portugal U21 vs Albania U21 – away win with +3 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Portugal U21 vs Albania U21 game at Marinha Grande.
Portugal are rightly considered favourites for this game as they’ve got better players, better academies, a better standard of league etc. which all help them massively. However, I do feel that they’re too short here when you consider that Portugal are not what I call a big goalscoring side at any level. Rui Jorge’s side are good at keeping the ball, like pretty much all Portuguese sides are, but they’re not so good at putting the ball in the net. The only side that they’ve actually laid into in the qualifiers was Moldova, running out 5-0 winners. Poland have taken a 1-1 draw here and Russia succumbed to defeat thanks to a late goal, losing 1-0, so it’s hardly convincing, is it? I’m not saying that Albania are as good as either of those two sides because they’re not but they’re certainly not as far away as the odds suggest that they are. Portugal miss their best striker Nelson Oliveira, as he’s with the senior team for the European Championships. That in itself tells a story, really. Oliveira is considered one of Portugal’s best strikers at the current time and he can’t even get into the Benfica starting eleven on a regular basis. I don’t personally consider that a great dishonour as there are lots of good strikers at Benfica but I’d question why he’s in the national team for a big tournament if he can’t get in the starting eleven for Benfica! The reason is simple, too – Portugal don’t have good strikers. Oliveira himself has only bagged two goals in these qualifiers and that makes him one of Portugal’s joint top goalscorers alongside Espanyol’s Rui Fonte and Olhanense’s Wilson Eduardo. Portugal can put the ball in the net from time to time and they’re good enough to create chances but they’re never convincing at the back and they’re rarely consistent in front of goal so it’s hard to take them seriously here, no matter how much they need the win.
Albania held Portugal to a 2-2 draw in Durres back in November thanks to their hero Armando Sadiku. With six goals already in the qualifiers, he’s only two behind leading goalscorers Mlapa of Germany U21 and Rhodes of Scotland U21 so let’s give Albania some much-deserved respect here; they can score goals. Goalscoring is what they’re good at! They can’t defend for shit but they’ve only failed to score in two games in this group stage, smashing four goals past Moldova, three past Poland (in their own backyard!), and two past Portugal themselves at home. Sadiku has been immense for Locarno this season in the Challenge League in Switzerland and will probably be playing Super League football next season if the rumours are correct. It’s not just about him, though – KF Tirana forward Balaj has had a good campaign and the likes of Brahimi (Grasshopper Zurich), Sallaj (Biel-Bienne), and Fejzullahu (Besa) have all had decent seasons (Brahimi moreso on the few occasions he’s featured for his club. There are good players in this side, though, and they do believe in themselves. I think Portugal are in for a surprise if they expect to end this game with a clean sheet as Albania will do everything possible to score here.
I think you realistically have to expect Portugal to win but in what manner? The Portugal U21 players themselves seem to think that it’ll be a routine hammering but I’m not so sure. I think Albania will score themselves here and fight tooth and nail for every ball. I think we’re in for a lot of goals here and I just don’t envision Portugal having the firepower to beat Albania by four goals or more (note that my tip is Albania +3AH – a 3-goal victory for Portugal would result in a “push” so it would take a four-goal win for the hosts for this tip to lose), bad as Albania’s defence can be. For me, there’s a lot of value to be found in giving Albania a +3 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Verdict: Albania U21 to win with +3 Asian Handicap at 5/6.