TFT Issue 422!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Jippo Joensuu – home win with -1.5 handicap at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Ykkonen game between high-flying RoPS Rovaniemi and defensive moguls Jippo Joensuu.
RoPS are too good for Jippo, if you want me to be horribly blunt. There’s a complete contrast in footballing styles between these two sides in the ruthlessly efficient RoPS Rovaniemi and the horribly defensive Jippo. RoPS attack with conviction and incision whilst Jippo defend as if their lives depend upon it but don’t tend to have much joy on the road.
Confidence is high in the Jippo camp following their unprecedented 1-2 victory at KooTeePee Kotka, although they owe their victory much more to KooTeePee’s poor display rather than their own good display. They’re in for a surprise if they think that they can do the same in the far north of Finland, however. RoPS’ new players are growing in stature and cohesion as each game passes and with the likes of Rivera and Mbachu starting to dominate the division, it’s hard to envision Hiukka’s side doing anything but winning this game convincingly today. You saw what PK-35 Helsinki did to Jippo recently, right? I doubt we’ll see the same scoreline here but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise ever if it did because RoPS are a few classes above Jippo. As long as RoPS take their chances (and hopefully score early in the game) as they have been of late then for me there’s tonnes of value on taking RoPS to beat the -1.5 handicap against Jippo at 9/10, hence my selection today!
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to beat the -1.5 handicap at 9/10. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Additional games
Netherlands vs Denmark – Netherlands to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
This could be a tight game here, hence my recommendation that you use the Asian Handicap rather than the European Handicap. Netherlands are heavy favourites and rightfully so as they’re considerably better than Denmark. However, there’s zero pressure on Denmark to do well in this difficult group, which aids them massively here. Netherlands bear a great weight of expectation here and that can impact their game.
Still, you do have to favour the Dutch here, don’t you? Mathijsen is out but so what – Netherlands’ left-backs have all been crap since van Bronckhorst retired. Netherlands are very vulnerable in defence and that’s what jeopardises this bet as it’s really not beyond the Danes to take advantage of that here, especially with Pedersen, Poulsen, Eriksen, and Schone all playing their football in the Eredivisie already. However, Netherlands have much more firepower at their disposal than the Danes do and that’s what should count ultimately. Denmark’s Kjaer is a bit out of sorts at the moment, leaving Agger to hold the defence together. Goalkeeper Sorensen withdrew from the squad through injury, leaving three inexperienced goalkeepers available to them. At this level, that rarely results in good things so it’s very hard for me to envision the scenario whereby the Danish get a good result here.
For me, taking a potent Dutch side to beat the -1 Asian Handicap is always going to be tempting at long odds of 7/5 and today is no exception.
Verdict: Netherlands to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Germany vs Portugal – over 2.5 goals at evens.
There’s been a lot of talk prior to this game of how Germany are going to batter Portugal and I just don’t buy it. I think Germany will win this tournament, make no mistake, but that doesn’t mean they’re simply going to sweep all of their opponents to one side and I’d be surprised to see them do it here.
Germany are a good side but they suffer from complacency in games that they’re expected to win and that’s precisely what is “supposed” to happen here. When that happens, their defence lose focus and concede goals very easily whilst their strikers tend to miss more chances than normal, which ultimately leads Germany to surprising results ala their 5-3 defeat in Switzerland prior to this tournament. However, when they’re motivated, they’re an excellent side with plenty of tenacity and you’d back them to win this game every time. Which Germany will show up? You decide!
I know which Portugal will show up, though – the one that nobody has seen for a while. Portugal’s ability over the years has lessened but they still possess a few world-class players, the most notable of which is Ronaldo, of course. Both he and Nani are match-winners when they want to be and that’s a dangerous problem to face, in my view. Portugal hate attacking sides with an organised defence because their strikers are pretty poor, especially in terms of movement. However, when given the option of counter-attacking, the Portuguese are actually pretty damn good, not to mention quick. Germany will attack them here because that’s what Germany do but I think that the Portuguese will find some joy at the other end of the field, one way or another.
Therefore, I’m opting for over 2.5 goals in this game. I expect something like a 2-1 scoreline but the 1×2 market is a no-go between these two heavyweights at such an early stage of the competition. At evens, taking over 2.5 goals is very much on my radar, however.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Venezuela vs Chile – home win with draw no bet at evens.
The Vinotinto are arising after a lengthy slumber and I think it’s time to recognise that. Venezuela are missing a couple of big players for them in the form of forward Maldonado, attacking midfielder Vargas, and his fellow midfielders Guerra and Gonzalez. However, it shows the growing depth of the Venezuelan squad that they can still put out a strong side here without those players. Rincon returns from suspension for this game to bolster an already impressive midfield with set piece specialist Seijas and their timeless playmaker Arango there to support Fedor and Rondon up front. There’s experience and quality in this Venezuela squad and we’re seeing more and more of it. Ok, the equaliser against Uruguay was bizarre to say the least but Venezuela are battlers and do possess talent so why not give them their due respect here? Only Ecuador have beaten them in the current campaign with Argentina and Bolivia both losing in Venezuela without even scoring in the current qualifiers whilst the Vinotinto have travelled to neighbours Colombia and the more illustrious Uruguay without losing. This side is better than a lot of people give them credit for and to me, the stage is set perfectly for them to prove it, especially as everyone tends to overrate Chile.
I assume the main reason that people tend to fawn over Chile is because they know who Alexis Sanchez is because there isn’t much other reason to do so nowadays. They can play some beautiful football but haven’t ever since Bielsa left, unsurprisingly. Chile lack a proper striker and have done for some time now and the absentees that they have today certainly won’t help them out here either. The talented Sanchez is in the squad, as is Chile’s only good striker – Suazo – so Chile do have threats. However, just look at who they’re missing – Valdivia, Medel, Beausejour, Jara, Ponce, Isla, Carmona, Mirosevic, Estrada, Jimenez, Vargas, Paredes, Pinilla, and Orellana. That basically means that the playmaking will be Fernandez or the inexperienced-at-this-level duo of Jorquera and Aranguiz, the former of which I am especially a fan but I’m not sure he’s ready for this stage. Suazo is Chile’s only good striker but Pinilla is a decent target man and Vargas could be the future for Chile’s attack so their absences will be felt here, as will that of Celta de Vigo top goalscorer Orellana. Jimenez, Valdivia, Beausejour – how will their midfield function without the creativity and pace from these guys? Their defence is in tatters with no Ponce or Jara, not to mention Medel and Isla sat in front of them. Chile are missing too many players to do anything in this game, in my view, so this should be Venezuela’s game to lose.
For me, there’s potentially a lot of value in taking Venezuela to win this game with draw no bet cover.
Verdict: Venezuela to win with draw no bet at evens. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Argentina vs Brazil – under 2.5 goals at evens.
On paper, this bet looks crazy, doesn’t it? You might be surprised to learn that four out of the last five meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals though. They tend to cancel each other out rather well and the fierce rivalry tends to mean that neither side wants to lose it, friendly or not. This game is being played in USA so there’s no home advantage for either side. Brazil have brought more of a “B” team than Argentina have, which is interesting. I watched them play Mexico and they struggled to make chances en mass, doing more than enough with the ball in the middle of the park but not enough in the final third, so much so that even an unfamiliar Argentinian defence shouldn’t struggle unduly here. There are still some great attackers in the Brazilian squad but that doesn’t matter much if they don’t have the ball in the right position. Argentina rarely make the grade at international level against fellow big sides, usually bottling it and relying on Messi. I expect that more than ever today as Argentina have decided not to bring an actual playmaker to USA for this game. They’ve still got the immaculate Messi to drift in and around the strikers and with the superb Aguero and Higuain ahead of him, you always get the feeling that there will be goals. However, Argentina have to go down the flanks here because of their lack of playmaker and Brazil will lap that up as they’ve got pacey, strong full-backs. Messi can drive through the middle and perhaps make something happen but aside from that, these two sides look to be able to cancel each other out too well for there to be goals in this game. Given the quality on paper, this bet could blow up in my face so approach with caution. However, I feel that under 2.5 goals is well worth a punt here with the above in mind.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Flamengo vs Coritiba – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Flamengo losing Ronaldinho will impact them massively from an attacking perspective but only in games where they needed him, if that makes sense. For example, I don’t expect it to matter tonight because Coritiba can’t defend. With the likes of Vagner Love in their side, you still have to expect Flamengo to score goals and I fully expect that here. Coritiba shy away from no Serie A side, however – they battle with spirit and pride and tend to score goals as a result. Goalscoring is what they do best and you can’t blame them for attacking a lot with that in mind. Neither side is remotely competent in defence so I have to look on odds of evens at taking over 2.5 goals to be a good value bet here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
NSI Runavik vs KI Klaksvik – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
The Faroese Meistaradeildin is usually a place packed full of goals but this is one of the rare occasions where I think we’ll see an under 2.5 goals game. Reynheim’s NSI Runavik are discovering some form and let’s face it – they’re a top six side, any day of the year, so it’s only a matter of time before they’re off the bottom of the table. Klamint Olsen has rediscovered his shooting boots and Jann Mortensen is lending a hand from midfield, as is Frederiksberg. There’s quite an exciting young nucleus to this NSI side that is different from previous years. They’re a capable side but they just need to be that bit more incisive in front of goal, which their recent momentum should propel them toward. However, KI Klaksvik have other ideas as they’re a very solid defensive unit and don’t ship goals to just anybody. HB Torshavn stuffed five goals past them in no time in their last away game but HB Torshavn have the players to do that. NSI don’t have the experience to do that and KI boss Gudlaugsson has already expressed the importance of keeping sides out in the Meistaradeildin because KI don’t have the firepower to match their opponents. You won’t often see KI go behind because it destroys their plans; they’re not good enough to come from behind to win, usually. They’ve got a tough game at a very underrated NSI Runavik here and that’s a potential volcano waiting to erupt. I think they’ll be more cautious than normal (somehow!) and that NSI’s kids will struggle to break through. I’d probably side with NSI edging it at some point but for a change, I’m very taken with under 2.5 goals at 9/10 today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10. Why not bet on this game now at William Hill?
Team news
European Championships:
Portugal – Nani is a doubt.
Germany – No news.
Netherlands – Mathijsen is absent.
Denmark – No news.
Argentinian Primera Division:
Banfield – G.Rojas, Brum, and Delfino are absent.
Boca Juniors – Orion, C.Rodriguez, Ledesma, and Colazo are absent.
Newell’s Old Boys – Machuca and Pellerano are absent. Sperdutti is a doubt.
Independiente – Assman and Velazquez are absent.
Union de Santa Fe – Sarmiento and Erramuspe are absent.
San Martin de San Juan – Mas, Pocrjnic, and Quiroga are absent.
Velez Sarsfield – Barovero, Tobio, and A.Fernandez are absent.
Atletico Rafaela – Gandin is absent.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Tallinn – No absentees.
Levadia Tallinn – No absentees.
Sillamae Kalev – Volodin is absent.
Kuressaare – No absentees.
Trans Narva – No news.
Tallinna Kalev – Suurjarv and Alijev are absent.
Tammeka – Kaltenhauser has left.
Viljandi – Mutt is absent.
Nomme Kalju – Quinteri is a doubt.
Flora Paide – No news.
Finnish Ykkonen:
RoPS Rovaniemi – Grohn and Turcios are absent.
Jippo Joensuu – Lauri Ikonen, Korpela, and Sormunen are absent. Gruda and Eronen are doubts. Kettunen and Itala return.