TFT Issue 427!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
IA Akranes vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar – under 3 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Urvalsdeild game between league leaders IA Akranes and IBV Vestmannaeyjar.
A lot of people are getting carried away with IA Akranes’ good start to the season and who can blame them? Four wins and two draws from six games in their first season back in the Urvalsdeild is certainly impressive. There are a lot of promising youngsters in this side and a few old heads too, the most essential of which is unquestionably holding midfielder Gudjonsson. IA Akranes are a bit weak defensively due to their youthful nature but they’re very spirited and good at putting the ball in the net. However, the majority of their games this season have gone over 2.5 goals because they ship a lot of goals, which is something that I don’t expect to see because IBV are not good goalscorers, especially on the road. This game should be all about how well IA Akranes break IBV down and I’m not sure how well they’ll do with that, to be honest.
IBV are the only side in Iceland that defend properly. Valur have attempted to emulate them this season but IBV are the best at it. Never oppose them on their tiny island because it’s intimidating at hell and a nightmare to play there for away sides. IBV are more vulnerable on the road but they’re still very well-organised. On paper, they look like the classic over 2.5 goals team but nothing could be further from the truth. This side lines up defensively and tends to do it well. They’ve shipped six goals on the road this season despite playing just three games – it looks bad, doesn’t it? Look more closely – four of those goals were from the penalty spot. I won’t deny that IBV need to stop making elementary mistakes in the box that have led to those penalties but from open play, there isn’t a better defensive side in Iceland than IBV and they’re going to give IA Akranes a tough game here if the hosts are expecting a stroll in the park today.
You can take IA Akranes to win this one, if you wish. It doesn’t interest me in the slightest, to be honest. They’ve played some good football but IBV are very hard to play against at all times. I think the experience of the visitors may cause IA Akranes problems here and although I don’t rate the IBV attack, I still think that a draw is quite possible. Either way, I find value in taking under 3 goals at 4/5 today.
Verdict: Under 3 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
Ukraine vs France – France to win at 11/10.
You have to fancy France in this one, don’t you? Ukraine are hosts and they’ll be desperate not to lose but they showed far too much weakness against Sweden for me to be concerned about them here. They’ve got lots of talent on the flanks in Konoplyanka and Yarmolenko and Shevchenko is a natural-born finisher but aside from that, Ukraine offer little in attack. Their defensive capabilities hinge entirely upon defensive midfielder Tymoschuk as the defence falls apart without him in front of them. Ukraine’s goalkeeping situation is perilous with all three of them guilty of regularly making mistakes, especially Pyatov. Their defence lacks the leadership of Chygrynskyi and they buckle under pressure when experience isn’t on the field, as Ukraine demonstrated in their game against Sweden. Ukraine can score goals if their opponents defend badly but are sitting ducks aside from that.
France didn’t show as much against England as we all know that they’re capable of. Then again, England defended like troopers and France didn’t have an answer to that. Their strange tactic of keeping Benzema out of the box didn’t aid matters either. Ukraine’s defence isn’t as good as England’s defence is, however, and I doubt that they’ll keep the likes of Ribery at bay. To be honest, if Blanc makes them play the same game again with shots from distance then they should still do damage here as Pyatov is very susceptible from long-range shots.
The quality, the necessity, and the composure makes me view France winning this game at 11/10 as a good value bet today.
Verdict: France to win at 11/10.
Sweden vs England – under 2 goals at 7/5.
Sweden’s defence may be amongst the leakiest in the whole tournament but England are not an attacking side. People can’t really complain nowadays, either – Hodgson is playing England’s games the only way that England can win them. It’s not pretty, it’s not enjoyable, but it works. England pack men behind the ball and counter-attack with pace. They occasionally make things happen from set pieces or open play but generally speaking, it’s counter-attacks where England have the most joy. Sweden are a more interesting attacking side than England but everything they do goes through Ibrahimovic, which is a problem for them. He’s a world-class player and he looks great against Ukraine but England have the men at their disposal to keep him out of the game for the most part. Hamren needs to introduce alternatives for this game and one of them must surely be Wilhelmsson. Sweden were a different side when he came on against Ukraine as he gave them pace, skill, and movement on the left-wing. Sweden carried more threat from then onward but still lacked that striker in the box and still do, to be honest, with Elmander nowhere near match-fit and Rosenberg not being very good at it. I think Sweden could cause England problems and vice versa but I find it hard to imagine where the goals will come from barring defensive mistakes. For me, taking under 2 goals at 7/5 is an interesting prospect today.
Verdict: Under 2 goals at 7/5.
Woodlands Wellington vs Young Lions – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
The location of games in Singapore predominantly doesn’t matter as most sides play very close to one another with the exception of DPMM FC, who play in Brunei. It’s therefore puzzling that Young Lions are the top goalscorers in the S-League away from home and the lowest-scoring home side in the S-League. However, they’re a potent side at the core with Toto and El-Masri doing the damage. They prefer to counter-attack but they’ve got the luxury of attacking from open play whilst facing an awful Woodlands Wellington side. The hosts have just been utterly woeful in every area of the pitch this season and have needed leading goalscorer Soon Mo Hoon to bail them out time and time again. There are a couple of decent players in this side but it’s predominantly average and uninterested players that dominate the squad and thus I find it hard to envision them stopping Young Lions from performing here.
The visitors can’t defend very well so I’d cover this bet with draw no bet but I can only see one side having enough firepower to win this game and that’s Young Lions.
Team news
European Championships:
Sweden – Ibrahimovic is a doubt.
England – No news.
France – No news.
Ukraine – No news.
Argentinian Primera Division:
Atletico Lanus – D.Gonzalez is absent. Camoranesi is a doubt.
Union de Santa Fe – Sarmiento is absent.
San Martin de San Juan – Landa, Pocrjnic, and Quiroga are absent.
Newell’s Old Boys – Machuca is absent. Sperdutti is a doubt.
Verdict: Young Lions to win with draw no bet at 4/5.