TFT Issue 428!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
JJK Jyvaskyla vs HJK Helsinki – away win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter between samba JJK Jyvaskyla and reigning champions HJK Helsinki.
Atypically, I’d favour JJK to “do the business” in most of their home games but at the present time, I’m just not sure. It’s not that JJK are playing badly, per se, but they’re not converting their chances and they’re conceding absolutely ridiculous goals. Consider that JJK have shipped an average of nearly three goals per home game already this season whilst also “boasting” the worst defensive record in the Veikkausliiga! The short break ended for JJK earlier this week as local rivals KuPS battered them 1-5 and that really doesn’t set JJK up well for today’s big game, especially with key midfielder Manninen struggling for form. JJK are a very good side at the core but you wouldn’t know it from their defending nor their results in recent times.
HJK don’t manage to deal with natural turf too well but JJK’s defending should give them ample opportunities to deal with that here. The absence of Savage is a blow for the visitors, especially with big Sadik still out. However, Pohjanpalo, Makela, and Pelvas are all capable of scoring against a very poor JJK defence. There’s enough creativity in midfield and so long as their defence holds strong, you really have to fancy HJK to win this one convincingly today. They’re a lot more imposing and composed than JJK are right now so I do fancy them to win this one without great fuss.
JJK are never easy to beat at home and I’m sure they’ll be highly-charged for this game. However, HJK are a better side in better form and should make it count today.
Verdict: HJK Helsinki to win at evens.
Additional games
Greece vs Russia – Russia to be winning at half-time at 13/10.
In the current European Championships, we have seen two versions of the Greek national team. We’ve seen the one that fails to impact anything in the first-half, frequently giving the ball away, carelessly passing balls, and looking very disinterested in everything that is going on. However, we’ve also seen the one that makes the Greeks much stronger in the second-half, looking more galvanised and more dangerous as a result. The Greeks are creatures of habit and I expect the same from them here, to be honest. They’re very slow starters and both Poland and Czech Republic were leading at half-time in their respective games against Greece already in this group so why not Russia too? They’re not a gung-ho side but they’ve got firepower and they close the ball down well enough so I don’t see why they can’t upset the Greeks here, especially with suicidal Holebas at left-back. For me, taking Russia to be leading at 13/10 has to be worth a punt here, especially with number one goalkeeper Chalkias out! Chalkias himself is a very dubious goalkeeper but the fact that even he can’t play in this game makes me very concerned for Greece’s defence.
Verdict: Russia to be winning at half-time at 13/10.
Poland vs Czech Republic – over 2.5 goals at evens.
The huge question mark over Rosicky’s fitness for this game is all that concerns me with this one. Aside from that, we really should see over 2.5 goals. Hosts Poland must win this game or they face an early exit from the European Championships. Their fans simply won’t let them go down without a fight so I expect Smuda’s team to come out fighting. They’ve got good attacking players and a natural-born finisher in Lewandowski so Poland can and really should score goals here. The Czech defence has been weak at best, especially when it comes to communication, so Poland have nowhere to hide if they don’t at least score here. However, the Czechs have attacking threats of their own and also have the luxury of being able to sit back and counter-attack as a draw here sees them through. The likes of Rosicky, Pilar, and Plasil have all threatened with their pave and movement in this tournament. I’ve been very impressed with right-back Selassie too, who has caused lots of problems with his powerful runs. This Czech side is not especially good nowadays but it does have plenty of pace and when applied correctly they will cause problems and score goals. With the above in mind, I can’t see this game ending without both sides scoring, which helps. I also think that we’ll see at least one more goal on top of that with Poland needing the win and the Czechs competent enough to punish them on counter-attacks. For me, there’s value in taking over 2.5 goals if Rosicky plays. If not, I’d probably avoid this one as he’s the heartbeat of their team.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
FC Honka Espoo vs Inter Turku – away win at 7/5.
Although Honka’s league placing disguises the fact that they’re actually a good side, they should still be out of their depth here. A lack of experience, leadership, composure, and finesse makes Honka a susceptible opponent for good sides like Inter Turku. Honka are especially vulnerable at home where they’re under pressure to deliver and their counter-attacking style doesn’t work as well. I’ve no doubt that they’ll raise their game for their game against high-flying Inter Turku but will it be enough? I doubt it. Inter Turku have got some terrific attacking players and it’s shown on numerous occasions this season. As long as the mini-break hasn’t disrupted their momentum and confidence too much then they really should claim three points from this game today as Honka’s defence can concede at any time whereas their attack only turns up every now and then, usually hinging on Dudu’s performance.
Verdict: Inter Turku to win at 7/5.
PK-35 Helsinki vs KooTeePee Kotka – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
You have to expect in-form PK-35 to win this game, really. They’re head-and-shoulders above KooTeePee in player quality and firepower. There’s still work to do to complete the merging of all of the new PK-35 players but the quality that they have is clear to see. They’ve looked strong on their beloved artificial turf this season and I expect them to do the same again today, even against a solid KooTeePee side. The mini-break should have restored some of KooTeePee’s fitness as stamina and tiredness in general were huge problems for today’s visitors prior to the break. They’re a defensive side, KooTeePee, but if they don’t score here then they’ve no chance of getting a result because PK-35 will score. That’s why I expect a bit more of an open game than we’d usually see from KooTeePee on the road. Either way, there’s enough firepower on the park in this game for there to be goals so my call is to take over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
AC Oulu vs SJK – over 2.5 goals at evens.
The return of Toni Lehtinen to the starting line-up for SJK is a boost for them but they’re going to need more than that to get a result here. Oulu is widely regarded as one of the hardest places to go as an away team because of the quality of the sides from the north of Finland and because of the time it takes to actually get there. AC Oulu are one of the top sides in the division and now that they have Ivorian hitman Zeze in their ranks, it’s beyond hard for me to envision them doing anything but battling for promotion this season. They’ve got too much quality to not be in that battle, for my money. They’ve been banging goals in for fun ever since Zeze signed for the club and I expect them to do so here today as SJK’s defence looks a bit out of its depth against the bigger Ykkonen sides. That said, the return of hitman Lehtinen does improve SJK’s chances of upsetting the odds here and they have scored in all of their away games this season so why not again here? AC Oulu are not infallible and SJK are a good side. I expect an interesting game here between two good sides although I do favour AC Oulu to win it. Either way, I find value in taking over 2.5 goals with the firepower of both sides taken into account.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
European Championships:
Poland – Perquis, Dudka, and Polanski are doubts.
Czech Republic – Rosicky is a big doubt. Cech is a minor doubt.
Greece – Chalkias and A.Papadopoulos are absent. Papastathopoulos returns.
Russia – Kokorin is absent. Zyrianov is a doubt.
Argentinian Primera Division:
Velez Sarsfield – Tobio is absent.
Tigre – No absentees.
Estudiantes De La Plata – Modon, Re, E.Perez, Mercado, and Brana are absent.
Olimpo – Musto and L.Rios are absent.
Belgrano de Cordoba – Olave and C.Pereyra are absent. C.Perez is a doubt.
Banfield – Rojas, Pepe, and Brum are absent.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Levadia Tallinn – No absentees.
Sillamae Kalev – No absentees.
Viljandi – No absentees.
Flora Paide – No absentees.
Kuressaare – Ilves is absent.
Trans Narva – No absentees.
Tammeka – No absentees.
Flora Tallinn – No absentees.
Tallinna Kalev – No absentees.
Nomme Kalju – Quinteri is a doubt.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
JJK Jyvaskyla – Tuomanen is a doubt.
HJK Helsinki – Sadik and Savage are absent.
FC Honka Espoo – Rexhepi is absent.
Inter Turku – Bahne, Diallo, Lehto, and Parviainen are absent.
TPS Turku – Rannikko returns.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Aho returns. Jonke may debutise.
Haka Valkeakoski – Sanevuori and Dema are absent. McFaul and Kuusijarvi are doubts.
VPS Vaasa – Jibrin and Bjork are absent. Strandvall and Koskimaa are doubts. Flu in the camp; unknown number of affected players.
Finnish Ykkonen:
AC Oulu – Merilainen returns. Majava and Ojala are doubts.
SJK – Jaaskelainen, Rauhala, and Penninkangas have left on loan. Tiitus Lehtinen is absent. Cleaver and Toni Lehtinen return.
PK-35 Helsinki – Ikegwuonu, Nyberg, Kabashi, and Sorja are absent.
KooTeePee Kotka – Lomidze and Jammeh are absent. Seppala is a doubt.
Jippo Joensuu – M.Ikonen, L.Ikonen, Rissanen, Sjoblom, Korpela, Sormunen, and Koivuranta are absent.
Hameenlinna – Suhonen and Makela are absent.