TFT Issue 429!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Viikingit Helsinki – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Ykkonen game between leaders RoPS Rovaniemi and Viikingit Helsinki.
Seven wins from eight games tells you all you need to know about how well RoPS are playing right now. I’m amazed that a side of essentially new players can gel so quickly, especially to such a devastating effect. They hardly concede any goals and yet always manage to find their way through opponents. Jippo came to Rovaniemi and parked the bus but still left with a 4-0 drubbing. The two Oulu clubs took RoPS on with strong firepower at their disposal but RoPS won both games without even conceding. The only side to stop RoPS from winning so far this season has been PK-35 Helsinki, who are unsurprisingly second in the Ykkonen table. RoPS have everything going for them right now and they’ve got a very talented attacker in Rivera whom Lahtinen links up well with. RoPS have players to deal with every opponent and they’ve got the experience to win when they have a lead, which pretty much makes them the finished article right now.
The above is convincing enough, in my view, but if we look at Viikingit then it looks even more convincing. Viikingit’s new-look side has started to gel and their attacking ability is better than what it was, which is largely down to Delgado and Gonzalez. Their defence is still very vulnerable, however, and the average age of the squad does throw some light upon why that is. Viikingit have especially struggled against the heavy hitters of the Ykkonen so far this season, losing 5-0 at AC Oulu, 0-2 against SJK, and 0-4 against PK-35 Helsinki. Viikingit haven’t scored against any of the big sides and have lost all three games so far. Add that to the very long trip north to Rovaniemi required to participate in this game and it all looks good for RoPS.
Viikingit could score against RoPS with Delgado in their team but they’ll have to play the best ninety minutes of football that they’d have played this season to avoid defeat here. RoPS are too good for all Ykkonen sides right now and thus taking them to beat the -1 Asian Handicap appeals to me massively at 4/5.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Additional games
Denmark vs Germany – under 2.5 goals at evens.
I can’t help but feel that this derby will go under 2.5 goals despite statistics suggesting that it’ll go over 2.5 goals. Why? Well, Germany have been good at dominating the ball but without doing an excessive amount with it in the final third. They get their goal or two and then they tend to sit on it, which they’re also good at. Considering that a draw in this game will see them finish atop Group B, you have to wonder if Loew will rotate some players too. That’s no disrespect to Denmark, really, but Loew surely won’t want the likes of Gomez, Schweinsteiger, Lahm, and Ozil injured for the quarter-finals – it’s just common sense. Germany are likely to take this game at a slow pace because they can and because Denmark realistically need to get at least a draw from the game to have any chance of reaching the latter stages of the tournament. Denmark are not convincing in attack, contrary to their goalscoring record thus far, but they’re relatively good at the back when Agger is co-ordinating the defence. Either way, I can’t see Germany going full-throttle here and I don’t see the Danes being good enough to turn this game into a goalfest so my call is to take under 2.5 goals at evens.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama – away win with draw no bet at evens.
I’m going to have some fun opposing Palmeiras this season because they’re the most ineffectual side in the final third that I’ve come across in Brazil for a while now. They’ve got some big names in their ranks with the likes of Valdivia, Marcos Assuncao, and Daniel Carvalho there for Scolari to call upon. However, Palmeiras’ strikers are average at the very best of times and thus almost all of their goals are coming from set pieces (mostly free-kicks) or long-range shots. As that’s their main attacking threat, I’m sure you can see why I’m going to be opposing Palmeiras a lot this season. Vasco da Gama aren’t the finished article that the Serie A table portrays them to be right now but they’re a lot more dangerous than Palmeiras and they bring a lot of momentum into this game following four wins from four games. The veteran Juninho Pernambucano and temperamental Carlos Alberto tend to ensure that the midfield creates something and Alecsandro is one of the most adept Serie A strikers around with bags of experience, pace, and finesse. All of the above combined makes Vasco da Gama a dangerous side and I think that they’ll at least score in this game, which should be enough to see them avoid defeat, barring a miraculous Palmeiras display.
Palmeiras are never an easy side to beat so don’t misunderstand me here. They’re often well-organised at the back and underestimating them can be a big mistake. However, Vasco are goalscorers and they stand more chance of scoring goals in this game than Palmeiras so taking the away win with draw no bet interests me a lot at evens, especially with Vasco having just won at Bahia, which is one of the hardest away games in Serie A right now.
Verdict: Vasco da Gama to win with draw no bet at evens.
IFK Mariehamn vs MyPa Anjalankoski – home win at 9/10.
Aland is no place for an average away side and that’s precisely what MyPa are. IFK aren’t as good as the Veikkausliiga table currently portrays them to be but they’re a real force on their own turf, rarely shipping goals and always presenting a physical game for their opponents to handle. IFK will have been a little downcast to have a break when they’d recorded three straight wins, two of which were against the Turku clubs. Still, IFK have got the quality to beat sides like MyPa with striker Kangaskolkka in good form and the return of Jagne lessening the burden on the emerging Forsell, who has clearly revelled in that by bagging six goals in nine games from midfield. IFK have a tremendous spirit and that’s not something to ever underestimate, especially when playing at home. This side is not the prettiest around but they’re real grafters and they’re almost never easy to beat so I’ll give them the nod here.
MyPa have drastically over-achieved this season, in my view. They’ve played well but that won’t last long because they’re packed full of Ykkonen players. In my opinion, MyPa have over-achieved for the past few years by simply avoiding relegation because they’ve not got any quality nowadays. We saw more of the “real” MyPa shortly before the brief break with MyPa failing to score in two consecutive games against awful defences so boss Korkeakunnas has signed former KuPS forward Williams to try and help out because O’Neill is terrible and experienced Sihvola is average at best. Their only decent striker last season was Votinov and he left pre-season to return to Russia with Baltika Kaliningrad. MyPa love to upset the bigger sides but with little quality at their disposal and no big side in sight, I feel that we’ll see the usual poor MyPa show up and IFK take them apart as a result.
For me, the home win at 9/10 is well worth a punt today.
Verdict: IFK Mariehamn to win at 9/10.
KuPS Kuopio vs FC Lahti – home win at 5/6.
I’m not a big fan of backing KuPS to beat anyone nowadays despite the fact that they’re secretly a top five side with the quality at their disposal. The problem is that they’re horribly inconsistent and that’s a big concern, as I’m sure you’ll agree.
However, I’ve decided to give them a chance here because of everything that is currently in their favour. First of all, they returned from their brief break by destroying local rivals JJK Jyvaskyla 1-5 away from home and playing like champions whilst doing so. KuPS will take a lot of confidence from that game and should make it count on their beloved artificial turf at home if they use their momentum properly.
Secondly, KuPS have more match-practice than their opponents due to that game at the start of this week, which helps.
Thirdly, Lahti are in a really bad way ahead of this game. They were poor prior to the break, failing to score in three consecutive games. Goalscoring is a huge problem of theirs and despite Rafael having the ability to score goals for them, Lahti lack any kind of support for him today with Kari and Kemppinen both injured. Arguably their best player this season – Taulo – is missing from central midfield and defender Hukka also misses out. Lahti have no depth and no attacking threat for this game unless veteran Rafael produces some magic of newbie Bernhardt delivers one of his trademark free-kicks.
Therefore, I’m sure you can see why I favour KuPS here. They have a nasty habit of making a mess of things when everything should be very straightforward but at 4/5, they are a must to win this game, especially when you look at the two sides on paper!
Verdict: KuPS Kuopio to win at 5/6.
Team news
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
IFK Mariehamn – No absentees.
MyPa Anjalankoski – O.Williams may debutise. Anttilainen returns.
KuPS Kuopio – Zahovaiko is absent. James and Holopainen return.
FC Lahti – Heinonen, Taulo, Hukka, Kemppinen, and Kari are absent.
Finnish Ykkonen:
HiFK Helsinki – Britschgi and Halme are absent.
OPS Oulu – Kemppainen and Hyde are absent. Prebiracevic returns. Autti may debutise.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Grohn and Kokko are absent. Turcios is a doubt.
Viikingit Helsinki – No news.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Zalgiris Vilnius – No absentees.
Vilnius – Jasaitis is absent.
Ekranas Panevezys – No news.
Atlantas – Siskinas is absent. Gordejus and Streimikis return.